Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today - Sunday)...
Summer-like weather in place across eastern Idaho this afternoon
as the much advertised warm weather has finally arrived in full
force. Temps across the Snake Plain have climbed into the mid and
upper 80s already this afternoon with 90s quite likely from around
Blackfoot west into the Magic Valley. Did see a brief storm skirt
across the Island Park area as clouds and precip have been moving
across the northern extent of the anticyclone aloft. Further to
the south, have seen some CU develop over the last hour or so
across NE Nevada and NW Utah. Mesoscale analysis does show pockets
of instability along the Utah/Nevada border and given the
persistence of hi-res CAMs showing precip across this area have
bumped up PoPs across Cassia, Oneida, Power and Bannock counties
through the afternoon and evening to account for this potential.
Given the ample heating taking place, a strong storm certainly
seems plausible. Very similar forecast expected Saturday with
temps remaining well above normal with more 90s expected. Hi-res
models are showing quite a bit of convective potential tomorrow
afternoon as well so this remains something to watch as the global
models aren't quite as excited about this. Nevertheless, have
some isolated/scattered PoPs in the forecast for tomorrow
afternoon. On Sunday, the ridge will get suppressed a bit to the
south and east as a potent low moves into the Pacific NW. This
should drop temps about 10 degrees compared to Saturday but still
remaining above climo. McKaughan

.LONG TERM (Monday - Friday)...
Expecting mainly dry and warm weather Monday as southerly flow aloft
continues with only isolated thunderstorms in the central mountains.
A weak wave may pass to the north Tuesday with slightly cooler
conditions but still well above normal with again any thunderstorms
confined to the central mountains as well as the upper snake
highlands. A more substantial advancing Pacific system will likely
bring much more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday across the entire region. Temperatures expected to
be slightly above normal through Friday. GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Have vicinity thunder all sites this afternoon and early evening
excluding SUN.  Storms should be isolated so unlikely to see at an
airport but they will be around.   Will remain VFR through Saturday.
 Expect similar isolated showers and thunderstorms again Saturday
afternoon and evening as well. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

IDZ057-058-292100-
Marsh and Arbon Highlands ID-Raft River Region ID-
208 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL POWER AND EAST
CENTRAL CASSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 207 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Malta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Fort Hall Bannock Peak and Arbon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4231 11315 4242 11324 4270 11273 4245 11254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 243DEG 25KT 4238 11310

McKaughan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
302 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

IDZ055>057-292145-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Raft River Region ID-
Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
302 PM MDT Fri May 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POWER AND EAST
CENTRAL CASSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Malta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Malta.

LAT...LON 4231 11337 4239 11344 4262 11299 4243 11282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 243DEG 28KT 4238 11332

McKaughan