Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Pocatello, ID

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
228 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Skies are looking quite
clear with no rain or thunderstorms to be found. Hot, dry and
windy conditions are expected for most of this upcoming weekend.
Strong winds are expected to develop during the afternoon hours
tomorrow afternoon and again Sunday afternoon for most of
Southeast Idaho; meanwhile temperatures will begin soaring into
the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat Advisories are in effect
for several areas during peak heat hours tomorrow as a result.
While recreation on area lakes may look pleasant for most people
this weekend, don't forget about the wind and the chop it can
build up. Each afternoon looks windy; but Monday in particular
just looks downright dangerous. We are holding off on issuing a
Lake Wind Advisory for American Falls Reservoir at this time but
be mindful there may be one issued.
ND

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A very potent upper trough with
strong cold front is expected to swing through the area early next
week. MEX guidance continues to show very strong winds at the
surface, a 30 degree temperature drop and snow at higher elevations.
A weather change that checks the Fall Season "check boxes"
indeed. At this time, the snow in the forecast in confined to
Eastern Idaho areas, particularly areas that border Montana and
Wyoming. Conditions begin to relax Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures gradually rebounding while high pressure build back
into the region. ND

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure is continuing to expand
across the region today and will bring near record warmth to a good
portion of SE Idaho. A weak low pressure system located off the
Oregon coast will move over the high pressure ridge Saturday morning
helping to suppress the ridge development Saturday afternoon as
daytime highs soar to record levels. Also, expecting widespread
Haines of 6 across the area today and tomorrow.  The break down of
the high pressure ridge will allow gusty west winds to mix into the
Central mountains and Snake River Plain where a Red Flag is now in
place for zones 422, 475, 476, 410 and 425 during the afternoon and
evening hours. Zone 411 across the Montana Divide was added to the
warning though the gustier winds will be mostly for the western
portion of this zone. Additional energy from the low pressure system
will move over the ridge Saturday night into Sunday, diving
southeast into the upper mid-west and bringing more wind to the
Snake River Plain and Southern mountains where a second Red Flag is
now in place covering zones 410, 413, 425, and 427. The ridge
weakens and dissipates completely Monday as a strong low pressure
system drops south across WRN Canada bringing a chance of
precipitation, strong northerly winds, and cooler conditions to the
region Monday night into Tuesday.  Over the latter half of the week,
the high pressure ridge builds back in along the west coast as a dry
and mild Northwest flow develops over SE Idaho.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...Expect continued VFR conditions and overall light winds
through tomorrow morning under strong high pressure ridging. The
high pressure riding starts to weaken as trough approaches from the
north by Saturday afternoon. Winds will start to increase by
Saturday afternoon for all TAF sites.
Wyatt

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Areas of smoke and haze look enter the region from
regional fires from the north and west tomorrow afternoon and
linger across our area through the remainder of this Labor Day
Weekend. Areas of denser smoke look to be likely in portions of
East Idaho, similar to about a week ago.
ND

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ410-411-
422-425-475-476.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ410-413-425-
427.

Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ051>059-075.

&&