Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Pocatello, ID

Bannock County, ID, Bear Lake County, ID, Bingham County, ID, Blaine County, ID, Boise County, ID, Bonneville County, ID, Butte County, ID, Caribou County, ID, Cassia County, ID, Clark County, ID, Custer County, ID, Franklin County, ID, Fremont County, ID, Idaho County, ID, Jefferson County, ID, Jerome County, ID, Lemhi County, ID, Lincoln County, ID, Madison County, ID, Minidoka County, ID, Oneida County, ID, Power County, ID, Teton County, ID, Twin Falls County, ID, Valley County, ID

247 
WWUS85 KPIH 251937
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 411, 413,
422, 425, 427, 475 AND 476...

IDZ410-411-413-422-425-427-475-476-260300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200826T0300Z/
Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM-
Centennial Mountains and Snake River Range/Targhee NF-
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-Sawtooth Range/Northern Sawtooth NF-
Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River-
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
East Salmon River Mountains/Salmon NF-
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
137 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410, 411, 413,
422, 425, 427, 475 AND 476...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 410 Upper Snake River 
  Valley/Idaho Falls BLM, Fire Weather Zone 411 Centennial 
  Mountains and Snake River Range/Targhee NF, Fire Weather Zone 
  413 Caribou Range/Caribou NF, Fire Weather Zone 422 Sawtooth 
  Range/Northern Sawtooth NF, Fire Weather Zone 425 Middle Snake 
  River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River, Fire 
  Weather Zone 427 Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern 
  Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls BLM south of the Snake River, Fire 
  Weather Zone 475 East Salmon River Mountains/Salmon NF and 
  Fire Weather Zone 476 Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF.

* IMPACTS...Lightning with scattered thunderstorms can overwhelm 
  initial attack forces for wild fire fighting with numerous 
  starts. Strong thunderstorm outflow can make fire spread 
  direction and spread rate too hazardous for fire control 
  efforts.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered coverage with frequent lightning 
  likely with a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Erratic thunderstorm outflow gusts of 40 to 50 
  mph with locally higher gusts possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

- Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

&&

$$

381 
WWUS85 KPIH 260255
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
855 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

IDZ410-411-413-422-425-427-475-476-260400-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200826T0300Z/
Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM-
Centennial Mountains and Snake River Range/Targhee NF-
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-Sawtooth Range/Northern Sawtooth NF-
Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River-
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
East Salmon River Mountains/Salmon NF-
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
855 PM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 410, 411, 413, 422, 425, 427, 475, AND 476...

While a few isolated additional thunderstorms may linger over the
next several hours producing lightning and strong gusty winds, 
thunderstorm coverage across southeast Idaho in general is 
decreasing. Thus, the Red Flag Warning is being allowed to expire 
as scheduled at 9 PM.

Fire partners should be aware of the potential for hold over fires
to be detected over the next several days following today's
lightning.

$$

KSMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
227 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Expect an active weather day today with an upper level wave moving
through eastern Idaho which will produce scattered thunderstorms
with gusty outflow winds. So, small hail and wind gusts over 50
mph are possible with the storms today. Red Flag warnings will be
in effect for the thunderstorm coverage. The storm prediction
center has placed southeast and central Idaho in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms as well. Expect haze and smoke to still
be present but areas that get more rainfall may see some
improvement. Expect more thunderstorms Wednesday but do not expect
coverage to be as great as today with the threat continuing
Thursday but by then mainly in high elevations of the eastern
highlands and central mountains. Temperatures will remain well
above normal Tuesday but expect slight cooling Wednesday and
Thursday but remaining slightly above normal for late August. GK

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Expect drier conditions Friday through Sunday with nothing but a
slight chance of showers along the eastern border.  Temperatures
will remain above normal Friday and Saturday then a strong cold
front will move through late Sunday and expect a significant cool
down beginning Sunday with temperatures beginning to drop and
Monday and Tuesday will be very cool with high temperatures as
much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke and thunderstorms will be the biggest concerns
the next 24 hours. Though smoke has gotten better with showers
and thunderstorms in the area, off and on MVFR conditions are
still possible due to smoke coming in from California. Smoke will
be reduced the next couple of days, but smoke will likely linger
until Sunday/Monday when a strong cold front moves through. The
risk of showers and thunderstorms increases today, especially in
the afternoon/early evening. Hail is possible along with gusty
winds of around 40 to 50 mph with locally higher gusts. Have VCSH
and/or VCTS in the TAFs for now. Will look at adjusting for
thunderstorms on station when certainty increases.
TW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Smoke and thunderstorms will be the biggest
concerns the next several days with thunderstorm potential being
the biggest concern today. Scattered showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will occur today with monsoon moisture
moving into the area aided by instability due to a passing trough.
Cloud/smoke cover will likely reduce overall instability
decreasing confidence. With that said we are still in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms with the passing trough today. Any
thunderstorms will have increased risks of hail and, particularly,
gusty winds (around 40 to 50 mph, though locally higher gusts are
possible). There will be a mix of dry and wet showers and
thunderstorms today. Some thunderstorms will produce rain over
0.10 up to around 0.25 as the monsoon moisture is increasing in
our area today. A red flag warning is out for our entire area due
to scattered thunderstorm coverage. Smoke will decrease with
showers and thunderstorms the next couple of days. However, smoke
will likely still be around as we look to remain in southwest flow
bringing in smoke from CA/NV/OR until next Monday when the upper-
level wind direction will change. Isolated, mostly afternoon,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Wednesday and
Thursday. Coverage looks to be mostly in the mountains, especially
on Thursday. Still looking for breezy to moderate winds late
Saturday into Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the area
Sunday. Expect temperatures to drop 10 to 15 degrees below normal
by next Monday.
TW

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Air quality remains variable this week as
southwest flow aloft maintains smoke trajectory from CA, NV and
OR. Thunderstorm activity today through Thursday could provide
some cleansing/wash out of the atmosphere, but those effects would
likely be localized, and could fill back in depending on
overnight inversion set up. There is no expectation of widespread
wholesale improvement until upper trough dives into the region
over the weekend, turning upper flow northwest.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ410-411-413-422-425-427-475-476.

Air Quality alert through this morning.

&&