Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2020

Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

January 17, 20204 states

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Jan 17, 2020, 3:37 AM EST for 4 states. It took effect at Jan 18, 2020, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 17, 2020, 3:37 AM EST (08:37 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 18, 2020, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 18, 2020, 8:27 PM EST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 23 counties

New Castle County, DE, Cecil County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-01-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2020-01-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 105 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

497 
WWUS41 KPHI 170837
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ060>062-103-105-172100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
337 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, and adjacent portions
  of northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop from late
  morning into the afternoon on Saturday. The heaviest snow will
  likely occur from mid to late afternoon. Snow may mix with sleet
  or rain by early Saturday evening before tapering off 
  overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-172100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
337 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe Counties in Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop during the late
  morning and early afternoon on Saturday. The heaviest snow is 
  expected from the mid afternoon to early evening hours. 
  Precipitation should gradually taper off Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

CMS
4 follow-up statements
446 
WWUS41 KPHI 172048
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020



NJZ010-012-015-PAZ101-106-180900-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/
Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Western Chester-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, 
Honey Brook, Oxford, Morrisville, and Doylestown
348 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Somerset, Middlesex and Mercer. In 
  Pennsylvania, Western Chester and Lower Bucks.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop west to east
  from Saturday morning into the afternoon. The heaviest snow 
  will likely occur from mid to late afternoon. Snow will likely 
  change to rain through the early evening with some sleet 
  possible during the transition. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ060>062-103-105-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie
348 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY
TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east 
  central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop west to east
  from Saturday morning into the afternoon. The heaviest snow 
  will likely occur from mid to late afternoon. Snow will likely 
  mix with sleet and rain by early Saturday evening before 
  tapering off overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-180900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0600Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
348 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY
TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop during the
  Saturday morning into the afternoon. The heaviest snow is 
  expected from the mid afternoon to early evening hours. Some 
  sleet may also mix in during the evening. Precipitation should 
  gradually taper off Saturday night.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Fitzsimmons / Davis
013 
WWUS41 KPHI 180832
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-106-182100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
332 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey
  and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to move into the area by
  late this morning or early this afternoon. A brief lull may
  occur after the first period of snow, but precipitation will
  pick up again by mid afternoon. Snow may mix with sleet from
  late afternoon into the early evening. Precipitation will end 
  by late evening, possibly as rain near and south of the 
  Interstate 78 corridor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-182100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.200118T1500Z-200119T0300Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
332 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe Counties in Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin by late morning
  or early afternoon. The heaviest snow will occur from mid
  afternoon through early evening before gradually tapering off
  late this evening. Snow may mix with sleet at times, especially
  late this afternoon.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

CMS
150 
WWUS41 KPHI 182045
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020


DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-190300-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T0300Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Pennsville, 
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, 
and Lansdale
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, southeast 
  Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-106-190300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T0300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, 
Pottstown, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total accumulations of 1 to 4 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey 
  and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-190300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T0300Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
345 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Davis
362 
WWUS41 KPHI 190127
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
827 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-190230-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-200119T0300Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Newton, Washington, 
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, 
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, 
Mount Holly, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, 
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
827 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The steady precipitation has ended. Patchy icy spots are still
possible, so continue to exercise caution when traveling
overnight. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Jan 16, 9:39 PM EST, 5 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 16, 9:39 PM EST, 5 hours 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region for a short
stint through the day Friday before an area of low pressure lifts
across the Great Lakes into Saturday morning. By Sunday morning,
this low will begin to push offshore as a broad arctic high builds
southward out of central Canada into the eastern U.S. early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to strengthen as it moves
northeastward offshore of southeastern Canada tonight.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
tonight. Between the two, we will remain under a tight pressure
gradient. Winds above the surface remain fairly strong
overnight, and with decent mixing, winds will remain gusty at
times through the night. Winds will continue to gust 30-40 mph
with occasional higher gusts.

A line of snow showers was progressing southward across
eastern Pennsylvania and into southern New Jersey this evening,
and will continue pushing southward over the next few hours
even into Delaware and Maryland. Most of this line is fairly
light snow, but a brief period of heavier snow will be possible
and lead to a light dusting for some areas, otherwise, little to
no additional accumulation is expected.. This is associated
with an area of enhanced low- mid level lift and moisture and as
it sinks southward, most precipitation north of this line will
end. The exception will be across the Poconos where light snow
should could continue into the overnight before dissipating.

As a surface trough moves across the area overnight around the
low to our northeast, drier air will move into the area,
diminishing the potential for snow showers by later in the night
after midnight. Eventually, the showers will end and skies will
begin to somewhat clear out some, except portions of northeast
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

It will still be a fairly cold night due to continued strong
cold advection with lows generally in the low to mid 20s (colder
in the Poconos/NW NJ). The wind will make it feel even colder,
with wind chills in the single digits to teens, and sub-zero for
the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Friday should be a quiet and very dry (i.e. single digit dewpoints)
day as strong high pressure progresses NEwrd toward the area,
ultimately residing near the Ontario/Quebec border by Friday
afternoon. Despite sunny skies, 925mb temps in the -8 to -12C range
(roughly the top of the mixed layer) will only support high
temperatures in the low to mid 30s (even colder in the Poconos/NW
NJ). Although it will not be as windy as today, there should still
be a modest NW breeze (particularly early), so it will certainly
feel like a brisk mid-January day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview...The long term begins quiet Saturday morning, but quickly
ramps up as a strong surface high (1045+ mb) shifts across southern
Ontario and Quebec into northern New England as a strong surface low
quickly moves in its heels across the Great Lakes bringing us
our highly-anticipated winter weather (at least for some). An
arctic high will then build southward from northern Canada,
bringing some of the frigid air from central Alaska southward
across the eastern U.S. into early next week and leading to a
downward trend towards more seasonable high temperatures for
this time of year.

Now turning our attention towards the main concern of the long term:
the weekend winter storm potential. No significant changes
through this forecast cycle, with the warming trend and slightly
further northward track of the surface low still continuing to
hold strong. Strong cold air will develop across the region as
radiational cooling and cold air advection as the high moves off
to the north and east of our area Friday night. Given this cold
air, strong isentropic lift ahead of the system will likely
promote a decent period of moderate snowfall initially, with a
changeover to rain occuring from south to north. Strong warm air
advection will quickly begin to erode this cold surface layer
throughout the day Saturday as a 70+ kt 850 mb jet pumps in warm
air from the south. Very dry air ahead of the system will be
another factor that will have to be overcome. This lift will
have to work awhile to moisten the surface layer before a
changeover does occur-this is one factor working in favor of our
snowfall potential.

While a broad area of snowfall is still likely at the onset of this
system, it will be hard to get a significant snowfall for the Philly
Metro and points south and east. Here are some of the limiting
factors. 1) Extending from the previous forecast cycle, the
northward track of the low across the Great Lakes and southeast
Canada into Maine is not a climatologically favorable snow-producing
track. 2) The overall speed of the system continues to suggest a
later onset into Saturday afternoon, providing more time for solar
heating Saturday morning. 3) The progressive nature of the surface
low and attendant shortwave will preclude most long-lasting effects.
On the other hand, there are a few factors working for this system.
1) Radiational cooling Friday night into Saturday morning will cool
the airmass ahead of the system along with the overall cold
advection behind the quickly-retreating surface high to our north
and east. The more quickly the snowfall can move into the region,
the longer it will stay snow. 2) Very dry air ahead of the system
with dew points dropping into the single digits will enhance
diabatic cooling effects as snow moves into the region. Given the
relatively strong cold and dry airmass ahead of the system,
precipitation is still likely to fall as all snow initially, causing
some travel impacts, especially with surface road temperatures
likely cooling well below freezing Friday night, especially across
northern New Jersey.

Forecast soundings still suggest that the transition tendency of
this storm will favor sleet over freezing rain with there being too
shallow of a cold layer and sufficient enough warm air advection
once precipitation does transition for freezing rain occur. Current
guidance suggests most locations will see a transition to sleet,
aside from the Poconos, where precipitation may stay all snow, or
just about. Continue the trend from the previous forecast cycle with
a sharpened gradient of snow totals, with generally 1 inch or less
amounts in the urban corridor southeastward into south Jersey and
northern Delmarva, to 1-3 inches near and just northwest of the Fall
Line, to 3-5 inches generally northwest of a Reading to Morristown
line. With warming surface temperatures, expect general rain
southeast of the Fall Line by Saturday evening. Overall, this looks
to be a bourgeoisie snow event in terms of impacts.

Moving into Sunday, conditions will clear out with wind being the
big storyline. Conditions don't look as cutthroat as today, but we
could see gusts up to 30 mph possible. Highs will be a bit cooler in
the mid to upper 30s north and west of the I-95 Corridor and low 40s
south and east.

Cold and dry weather will then transition to the main headline as we
head into next week as an arctic high builds southward in the wake
of this weekend's storm system. Highs look to sit at more seasonable
values in the low to mid 30s Monday and Tuesday, moderating to the
upper 30s Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF still continues to warm
us a little faster than some of the other guidance, but tended to go
with a blended approach leaning towards a slightly colder bias given
the trends leading up to this event in previous forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Any lingering snow or rain showers will end by 04Z.
W- NW winds 15-25 KT with gusts up to 35 KT.

Friday... VFR. W-NW winds 15-20 KT with 25-30 KT gusts. High
confidence.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday...VFR conditions in the morning will rapidly deteriorate as
precipitation moves into the region, likely starting as snow before
transitioning to a mix of rain and snow, especially from the Philly
terminals south. Sub-VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the
remainder of the day as precipitation coverage increases. Light and
variable winds turning southerly from 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20
knots. There is the possibility for LLWS as well. Moderate confidence.

Saturday night...An extended period of sub-VFR conditions is
expected through Saturday night as a transition to all rain occurs
across the terminals. Sub-VFR conditions are likely throughout the
night. Southerly winds turning southwesterly from 10 to 15 knots
with gusts approaching 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...Lingering sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR throughout
the morning as all precipitation moves offshore. Westerly to
northwesterly winds from 15 to 20 knots with gusts approaching 30
knots. High confidence.

Monday...VFR with northwest winds 10 to 20 knots dropping to 5 to
10 knots Monday night. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR conditions with northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. High
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The Gale Warning remains in effect for our marine zones and expect
widespread NW gusts of 35-40kts to continue through much of the
overnight period. Winds will begin to relax tomorrow morning after
about 12-15Z, with seas also relaxing through the day tomorrow. That
being said will likely need an SCA for a few hours after the Gale
Warning expires as gusts will remain over 25kts and seas likely over
5 ft. By late tomorrow afternoon expect that we should be free of
(on-going) marine headlines.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday...Southerly winds increasing to advisory level during the
afternoon with the potential for gusts to near gale force by
Saturday night. Seas building from 2 to 4 feet Saturday morning to
4 to 7 feet by Saturday night.

Sunday...SCA-level wind gusts out of the southwest turning westerly
through the morning. Seas from 4 to 7 feet to 3 to 5 feet.

Monday...SCA-level wind gusts out of the northwest possible early
Monday morning will drop below advisory criteria into the daytime
hours with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA level winds from 15 to 20 knots with seas from 1
to 3 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Davis
Near Term...Carr/Robertson
Short Term...Carr
Long Term...Davis
Aviation...Carr/Davis/MPS
Marine...Carr/Davis
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 16, 11:20 PM EST, 4 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1120 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-180430-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
1120 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania,
northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An accumulating snow is expected on Saturday. The snow is forecast
to change to a wintry mix late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. Some locations, mainly in the valleys, could go over to all
rain at that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
180430-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
1120 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A light accumulating snow is expected on Saturday. The snow is
forecast to change to a wintry mix, then to all rain on Saturday
afternoon. There remains some uncertainty regarding the timing of
precipitation changeover and the snowfall amounts, with the higher
snowfall totals likely being across southeast Pennsylvania.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-180430-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1120 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force wind gusts from the northwest are possible on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 16, 10:59 PM EST, 4 hours 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1059 PM EST THU JAN 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S SLATINGTON          40.74N 75.61W
01/16/2020                   LEHIGH             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREE AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0940 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW MAHONING TWP      40.79N 75.76W
01/16/2020                   CARBON             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG WINDS.

1130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST WYOMISSING         40.33N 75.99W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG WINDS.

1140 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N WEST ROCKHILL TWP   40.39N 75.35W
01/16/2020                   BUCKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

1210 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WYOMISSING              40.33N 75.96W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0150 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW HAYCOCK TWP       40.47N 75.25W
01/16/2020                   BUCKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0209 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE DENVILLE          40.85N 74.47W
01/16/2020                   MORRIS             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOWNED TREE ON STATE HIGHWAY 53 NEAR STATE
            HIGHWAY 10. SEVERAL LANES WERE CLOSED.

0210 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S BERN TWP            40.37N 76.00W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE SINKING SPRING    40.33N 76.01W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSSARDSVILLE           40.93N 75.27W
01/16/2020                   MONROE             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
            POWER LINES EAST OF SCIOTA, ESPECIALLY NEAR
            CHERRY VALLEY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST STROUDSBURG        40.99N 75.18W
01/16/2020                   MONROE             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE
            EAST STROUDSBURG AREA. TIME ESTIMATED.

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW ERWINNA           40.50N 75.09W
01/16/2020                   BUCKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES NEAR TETTEMER ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0317 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NW SCIOTA             40.95N 75.33W
01/16/2020                   MONROE             PA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOWNED TREE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NEOLA
            ROAD AND SPRUCE WOODS ROAD.

0320 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E CLAUSSVILLE         40.61N 75.62W
01/16/2020                   LEHIGH             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0340 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE BERN TWP          40.37N 75.98W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW PLAINFIELD TWP     40.81N 75.28W
01/16/2020                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES NEAR CHURCH ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE NEFFS             40.71N 75.60W
01/16/2020                   LEHIGH             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E LENAPE              39.91N 75.62W
01/16/2020                   CHESTER            PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR COUNTRY CLUB
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW BIRDSBORO         40.27N 75.83W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR SCHUYLKILL RIVER
            TRAIL. TIME ESTIMATED.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW LORANE            40.28N 75.90W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR RIDGEWAY ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SW MOHNTON            40.27N 76.01W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED WIRES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR
            GOUGLERSVILLE ROAD AND BEAVENS ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LENHARTSVILLE           40.58N 75.89W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES REPORTED OUTSIDE THE
            LENHARTSVILLE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED.

0440 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW LOWER SAUCON TWP  40.61N 75.30W
01/16/2020                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W PLYMOUTH MEETING    40.10N 75.29W
01/16/2020                   MONTGOMERY         PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR KINGS ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW TRIPOLI             40.68N 75.75W
01/16/2020                   LEHIGH             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES IN THE NEW TRIPOLI AREA.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE THORNTON          39.92N 75.47W
01/16/2020                   DELAWARE           PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR NEW DARLINGTON
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SE LAURELDALE         40.37N 75.90W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR BILMAR ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N KUTZTOWN            40.54N 75.78W
01/16/2020                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES NEAR GUN CLUB ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0610 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW UPPER HANOVER TWP  40.42N 75.53W
01/16/2020                   MONTGOMERY         PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0616 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE ASHLAND           39.82N 75.65W
01/16/2020                   NEW CASTLE         DE   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DOWNED TREE AND WIRES NEAR SNUFF MILL ROAD
            AND OLD KENNETT ROAD. ROAD CLOSURES IN
            PLACE.

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW GERMANSVILLE      40.71N 75.72W
01/16/2020                   LEHIGH             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0830 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 W SCOTRUN             41.06N 75.36W
01/16/2020                   MONROE             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND WIRES FROM STRONG WINDS.

0940 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW TOBYHANNA TWP     41.17N 75.57W
01/16/2020                   MONROE             PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED POWER LINES FROM STRONG WINDS.

&&

CMS
Local storm report, Jan 16, 11:02 PM EST, 4 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 PM EST THU JAN 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N WEST HADDONFIELD    39.91N 75.04W
01/16/2020                   CAMDEN             NJ   PUBLIC

            DOWNED TREE LIMBS FROM STRONG WINDS. REPORT
            VIA MPING.

&&

CMS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 17, 10:00 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI11 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2020Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2020Winter Weather Advisories in Maryland, 2020Every winter weather advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.