Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer-like pattern will persist throughout the rest week
with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along with
above average temperatures. A coastal storm will impact the
region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the
Carolinas. A cold front then moves through over the weekend,
which may stall along the coast through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another morning of low clouds and patchy fog earlier this
morning is finally beginning to break, especially across the
Coastal Plain to the Jersey Shore. A few thunderstorms have
begun to pop up in the upper Susquehanna River Valley this
morning and will transition eastward into the early afternoon,
moving across the Poconos in the next few hours. Otherwise,
hanging onto some low stratus through the remainder of the
morning across northern Delmarva and southeastern Pennsylvania
along and northwest of the Fall Line. These are forecast to
erode over the next few hours as we begin to warm up and the
boundary layer deepens.

Another hot and humid day once the clouds do finally erode as
temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 and the dew
points (unfortunately) remain in the 70s. Temperatures along the
immediate coast will be slightly cooler than points inland. The
southern Poconos and northwestern New Jersey will also be
cooler with highs low to mid 80s. Heat index values (outside of
the higher elevations and along the immediate coast) will
generally be in the low to mid 90s.

The south to southeast flow will continue over our area as a
surface high continues to nose into the region from the east to
northeast. This flow will keep the moisture abundant across the
region. PWATs remain high and around 1.5-2+", so heavy rain will
remain a threat. There should be sufficient surface heating
during the day to help destabilize the atmosphere with CAPE
values rising to around 1500- 2000 J/kg. Flow aloft remains
fairly weak, shear is unimpressive, and we once again lack any
real source of lift across our region. To the north of our area,
a surface trough with a mid-level shortwave will move through,
which gives more confidence to storm development. We may
displaced far enough south from this feature to see much
initiation across our forecast area, but with that in mind, the
best chances continue to be across the southern Poconos through
the Lehigh Valley and east into northern and portions of central
New Jersey.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Convection is expected to dissipate as we lose prime surface
heating this evening. Conditions will remain warm and muggy as
the flow remains out of the south/southeast, though it becomes
light and variable overnight in some areas. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dew points will remain the 70s
so it will remain fairly humid overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended looks to be fairly active with a potential
tropical/subtropical system followed by a cold front that
eventually stalls before finally being pushed through the region
as a deepening upper level closed low moves through the area
next week.

Thursday should be a warm and humid day across the Mid-Atlantic
as we sit in the lull between a ridge to the north and a
developing tropical system off the Carolina coastline. The 00z
guidance held fairly consistent with Invest 98L will reach the
Atlantic waters and develop as a vertically stacked symmetric
warm core low pressure system. Looking at the
UKMET/NAVGEM/CMC/EC the cyclone could start to take on
subtropical characteristics as it starts to track north while
the GFS holds on to a tropical system and then lifts it north
rapidly. The UKMET is a bit of an outlier because it pushes
further offshore and so it deepens the cyclone a bit more than I
think will eventually end up happened. I think the track of the
low will end up hugging the coastline as it moves towards the
north so our region will likely see impacts from the low
pressure system.

This will be in the form of an increase in tidal waters and
possible flooding, building seas along the coastal waters, a
substantial increase in the chances for life threatening Rip
Currents, the potential for moderate to heavy rain, and gusty
winds along the land sea interface. The severity of each of
those threats will vary significantly with subtle track changes
so specific details aren't exactly clear.

The GFS remains the most progressive model with tropical rains
reaching the region as early as late Thursday night with the
bulk of the heavy rains occuring through the morning hours. The
EC/CMC are about 3-6 hours slower in the progression and I've
opted to lean this direction given the GFS's nature to routinely
be slightly too fast in the progression of systems.

As the low tracks to the north, it quickly gets absorbed into a
deepening mid level trough and takes on extratropical
characteristics. We should see a cold front push through over
the weekend however as the day shift yesterday mentioned, the
dynamical forcing for that front appears fairly weak aloft.
There will be decent height falls and modest differential
vorticity advection across the region so we'll see ample
synoptic lift and with temps still remaining a rather potent
upper 80s over 70s dewpoints there will be sufficient
instability. Thus showers and thunderstorms will be possible
both Saturday and Sunday with the higher overall chance occuring
Saturday.

Coming out of the weekend the low pressure system that should
track through our area on Saturday will run into a road block in
the form of a broad Atlantic high pressure system causing the
cold front to stall off the coast. The high will force the low
north and may bring an elongated low pressure system back
onshore causing diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
through the early portion of the workweek. Time will tell on how
that evolution plays out but so much relies on what happens
with the potential tropical system heading into the weekend that
I really have low confidence on what happens next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...MVFR/IFR may linger for a bit this morning but should
quickly give way to VFR conditions by around 15Z. There is
another chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 18Z,
and more likely to the north and west of KPHL. Southerly winds
around 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence but low confidence on
timing/location of potential storms.

Tonight...Mainly VFR conditions expected early with MVFR or
lower conditions developing in fog and/or stratus after 06Z.
Light southeast to east winds. Low confidence.

Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...Some local fog possible early
Thursday morning, otherwise mostly VFR. Some showers and
thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening then again later Thursday.
Winds light and variable becoming southeasterly 5-10 knots Thursday.
Moderate confidence.

Friday and Saturday...Potentially widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings (and
visibilities at times) developing Friday with showers and
thunderstorms on the increase. Easterly winds around 10 knots
Friday, becoming northerly to northwest Friday night and
Saturday. Low confidence.

Sunday...Generally VFR, however a few showers and thunderstorms
possible. Southwesterly winds increasing to 5-10 knots.
Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue on the area waters
through tonight. South to southeast winds around 10 to 15 knots with
some gusts around 20 knots through this afternoon. Winds will drop
down to around 5 to 10 knots overnight. Seas will be around 2 to 3
feet on the ocean waters.

Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...Seas may build to 5-6 feet on the
ocean Thursday night as onshore winds start to increase. Therefore,
a Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed.

Friday through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions anticipated
Friday into Saturday mainly for seas 5-7 feet. The conditions
slowly subside back to below SCA criteria heading into Sunday.

Rip currents...

With light winds and seas continuing, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents is expected to remain low on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the risk may increase to moderate levels especially
later in the day as easterly winds begin to increase and seas slowly
start to build.

Heading into Friday, we anticipate the risk for dangerous rip
currents to increase substantially. As seas build over the region,
and we go through a prolonged period of longer period onshore swell,
the risk for dangerous, life threatening rip currents will increase
to at least moderate and possibly high especially for the Jersey
coastline. Those with beach interests should monitor conditions
closely as the development of dangerous rip currents seems quite
likely based on latest trends in the forecast.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Reading Regional Airport (KRDG) ASOS is experiencing
technical problems. Data will be missing or incomplete until
further notice.

The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia
Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due
to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Deal
Near Term...Davis/Meola
Short Term...Meola
Long Term...Deal
Aviation...Davis/Deal/Meola
Marine...Deal/Meola
Equipment...WFO PHI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

PAZ054-055-060>062-091630-
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Pennsylvania and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring Invest 98L as a
potential tropical cyclone. This low pressure system is currently
forecast to track close to the region and could bring possible heavy
rains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ070-071-101>106-091630-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring Invest 98L as a
potential tropical cyclone. This low pressure system is currently
forecast to track close to the region and could bring an increase in
tidal waters and possible heavy rains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-091630-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale force wind gusts will be possible for portions of the Atlantic
waters on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-091630-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous, life-
threatening rip currents on Thursday. The risk may increase to high
on Friday into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE OLD TOWN          39.13N 76.06W
07/06/2020                   QUEEN ANNE'S       MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME SPORADIC TREES SNAPPED FROM STRAIGHT
            LINE WINDS ALONG LANDS END ROAD, ESPECIALLY
            BETWEEN JACK ELLIOTT WAY AND BOOKERS WHART
            ROAD, THEN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CHURCH
            HILL ROAD BETWEEN CHURCH HILL AND
            CENTREVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GORSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

PAZ054-055-081615-
Monroe-Carbon-
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES...

At 1125 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Oneida, or
near Hazleton, moving east at 15 mph. Other storms will develop
across the southern Poconos into the early afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Lehighton, Mount Pocono, East Stroudsburg, Tobyhanna, Palmerton, Jim
Thorpe, Nesquehoning, Wind Gap, Weatherly, Stormville, Werry Lake,
Pocono Pines, Lake Harmony, Skytop, Tannersville, Long Pond,
Kresgeville, Sun Valley, Reeders and Beltzville State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 72 and 97.
 Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 277 and 314.
 Interstate 380 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 13.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4115 7515 4114 7509 4108 7503 4109 7497
      4099 7513 4095 7515 4093 7522 4086 7529
      4083 7538 4078 7567 4073 7576 4091 7599
      4101 7573 4105 7577 4109 7577 4113 7569
      4112 7564 4123 7554 4125 7513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 260DEG 15KT 4093 7606

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1229 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NJZ007-PAZ054-055-060>062-081730-
Warren-Lehigh-Monroe-Northampton-Berks-Carbon-
1229 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARREN...NORTHERN
BERKS...NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH...CARBON...SOUTHERN MONROE AND CENTRAL
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

At 1226 PM EDT, a large area of showers and thunderstorms are across
northern Berks, the southern Poconos and parts of the Lehigh Valley.
The activity is moving to the northeast at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Lehighton, Northampton, East Stroudsburg, Nazareth, Palmerton,
Bangor, Kutztown, Jim Thorpe, Hamburg, Slatington, Fleetwood, Pen
Argyl, Nesquehoning, Womelsdorf, Wind Gap, Bath, Weatherly,
Wernersville, Walnutport and Robesonia.

This includes the following highways...
 Northeast Extension between mile markers 59 and 88.
 Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 10 and 51.
 Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 299 and 314.
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 9.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4052 7634 4052 7625 4058 7605 4057 7602
      4065 7598 4070 7583 4074 7576 4083 7590
      4090 7598 4092 7598 4093 7595 4111 7519
      4092 7500 4030 7612 4049 7642
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 238DEG 22KT 4075 7566

PO