Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A large low over the northeastern U.S. is expected to slide
southeastward through Friday. A cold front approaching from the
northeast is anticipated to pass through our region Friday evening.
High pressure is forecast to nose into New Jersey, eastern
Pennsylvania, Delaware and northeastern Maryland from the northeast
and east for Saturday and Sunday. A trough is expected to approach
the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A somewhat busy afternoon with multiple convective cells producing
heavy rainfall and also some small hail. The latest LSRs have all
the significant reports received. A soaker near Milford DE produced
4.96 inches of rain earlier. The cells are being triggered by
several shortwaves rotating through the trough off the New England
/ Middle Atlantic region. The activity will continue for the next
few hours and then diminish with the loss of daytime heating. After
partly to mostly cloudy skies this evening, skies will become mostly
clear after midnight. Areas of fog are possible where rains fell
today. Lows will be in the low/mid 60s across the N/Central areas
and mid/upper 60s for Srn NJ/Philly metro and Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Weak upper ridging across the Middle Atlantic Thursday will bring
somewhat drier air across the area along with subtle subsidence.
Overall, this will result in a fair weather day with temperatures
that will be a bit above normal for early July. Highs will be in the
mid/upper 80s for most areas with a couple low 90s possible. The dew
points will not be excessively uncomfortable, mostly in the low/mid
60s during the afternoon. The 12Z/Operational NAM is showing some
late-day showers across the wrn areas, but for now this looks
overdone so we will disregard it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak upper ridging across the Middle Atlantic Thursday will bring
somewhat drier air across the area along with subtle subsidence.
Overall, this will result in a fair weather day with temperatures
that will be a bit above normal for early July. Highs will be in the
mid/upper 80s for most areas with a couple low 90s possible. The dew
points will not be excessively uncomfortable, mostly in the low/mid
60s during the afternoon. The 12Z/Operational NAM is showing some
late-day showers across the wrn areas, but for now this looks
overdone so we will disregard it.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR mostly outside of scattered showers and tstms at the
terminals. Later tonight, some fog is possible at the TAF sites
where it rained today (KABE) and probably (KMIV.KACY). Light N winds
then NW by dawn. Medium confid.

Thursday...VFR expected with mostly SKC early then sct-bkn by
afternoon. NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Medium confid.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions, though
localized MVFR conditions with low clouds on the overnight periods,
and there are some chances for mostly afternoon and evening showers
and storms. Low confidence.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of mostly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10
knots. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA criteria tonight for the waters.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening
before diminishing. Winds will be mostly light overnight and then
turn to the west or northwest around dawn. Winds and seas locally
higher in and near tstms.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
criteria, though

Rip Currents...

Today...Moderate
Tomorrow...Low probably.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We are coming up on a full moon this weekend and the level of the
astronomical high tides will continue to rise through that time.
The evening high tides are over a foot higher than those in the
morning.

We may begin to see some spotty minor flooding along the coasts
of New Jersey and Delaware on Thursday evening. A developing
east to northeast wind for late Friday into Saturday may cause
somewhat more widespread minor flooding around the evening high
tides on both days. The minor flooding could work its way up
Delaware Bay and into the tidal Delaware River, as well. We are
not anticipating any issues with the morning high tides. We will
continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

We are not expecting any tidal flooding on the upper eastern
shore of Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia
Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due
to damage to the antenna during the June 3 Derecho.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...Iovino/Johnson
Aviation...Johnson/O'Hara
Marine...Johnson/O'Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-022000-
New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New
Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ014-025-026-022000-
Eastern Monmouth-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible with the high tide on Friday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-022000-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ003-004-NJZ012-013-020-022>024-027-022000-
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Ocean-
Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey, northern New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible with the high tide on Friday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
457 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

DEZ001-MDZ008-012145-
New Castle-Cecil-
457 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES...

At 457 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Saint Georges,
or 7 miles northeast of Middletown, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Middletown, Elkton, Delaware City, Saint Georges, Mount
Pleasant, Glasgow, Bear, Bohemias Mills, Port Penn, Brantwood,
Cayots, Chesapeake City, Odessa and Brookside.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 5.
 Interstate 95 in Maryland near mile marker 109.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3970 7577 3962 7557 3938 7552 3945 7594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 128DEG 4KT 3954 7564

Gorse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
509 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

NJZ021-012200-
Cumberland-
509 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

At 509 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rosenhayn, or
near Millville, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vineland, Millville, Bridgeton, Cumberland, Laurel Lake, Mauricetown,
Bricksboro, Port Elizabeth, Bivalve, Port Norris, South Vineland and
Rosenhayn.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3941 7486 3921 7505 3946 7523 3950 7514
      3946 7508 3947 7508 3948 7507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 299DEG 6KT 3944 7510

Gorse

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
511 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             PETERSBURG              39.25N 74.73W
07/01/2020  M1.75 INCH       CAPE MAY           NJ   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PETERSBURG.
            PICTURES RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MEOLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

DEZ001-002-012215-
Kent-New Castle-
537 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE AND
NORTHERN KENT COUNTIES...

At 537 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Middletown,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Middletown, Smyrna, Clayton, Cheswold, Hartly, Woodland Beach,
Green Spring, Delaney Corner, Dover Speedway, Bohemias Mills,
Townsend, Odessa, Kenton, Leipsic and Chambersville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3951 7557 3922 7535 3913 7575 3949 7578
      3950 7577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 330DEG 15KT 3941 7564

Gorse

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             ODESSA                  39.46N 75.66W
07/01/2020  E0.25 INCH       NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ODESSA.

&&

MEOLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-020-012245-
Kent-New Castle-Queen Anne's-Cecil-Kent-Caroline-
603 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEW
CASTLE...KENT...NORTHEASTERN QUEEN ANNE'S...NORTHEASTERN CAROLINE...
KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES...

At 603 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Charlestown to Green Spring to Cheswold
to 6 miles south of Woodland Beach. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Middletown, Smyrna, Chestertown, Camden, Clayton, Cheswold,
Charlestown, Church Hill, Cecilton, Millington, Sudlersville,
Betterton, Bowers, Goldsboro, Woodside, Viola, Hartly, Bohemias Mills
and Hazlettville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3929 7617 3932 7618 3934 7616 3933 7614
      3937 7611 3937 7606 3942 7600 3946 7601
      3952 7598 3954 7601 3957 7598 3929 7542
      3898 7528 3899 7574 3926 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 325DEG 18KT 3955 7599 3933 7567 3920 7558 3925
7544

Gorse