Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
946 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move northeastward over coastal
New England today before reaching Canada's Maritime Provinces
tonight. High pressure is anticipated build into our region from
the southwest and south through the weekend. A cold front from
the northwest will slide across the region Sunday night with
high pressure returning for the early part of the new week. Low
pressure may approach from the west and southwest on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level low was located over Virginia this morning. The
feature will lift northeastward today. Its associated trough
axis is forecast to pass off the coasts of Delaware and New
Jersey during the late afternoon and early evening.

A pool of cold air aloft, associated with the mid level low,
will create marginal instability for today as the strong early
May sunshine tries to heat the surface. As a result, mostly
cloudy conditions are anticipated along with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms will be
accompanied by small hail.

Today's high temperatures are expected to be mainly in the 60s
with a northwest wind around 10 MPH developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Heights will rebound as the low finally moves out to sea
tonight, and expect showers to taper off fairly quickly this
evening as drier air filters in behind a "cold front" (more
appropriately a moisture boundary) and dynamic subsidence occurs
behind the low. Skies will clear however winds behind the
aforementioned boundary should keep us from radiatively cooling
too efficient, and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heading into the weekend the weather should be quite pleasant.
Weak high pressure should lead to mostly clear skies and light
southerly flow should push temps into the low 70s across the
region. I'm not sure if we could really ask for a nicer day to
start the weekend. By Sunday we'll start to see clouds increase
as a cold front will start to track in from the west however
temps on the warm side of the front should warm into the low to
mid 70s again on Sunday as 925mb temps increase to 15-16C with
light westerly winds of 5-10 mph.

The cold front moves through Sunday night and should cause some
lightly scattered showers. Guidance is in two different camps
with regards to how much precip there will be but with most of
the guidance showing only a narrow axis of mid level moisture I
leaned towards the idea of lowered precip totals.

High pressure returns Monday with quiet sensible weather
expected for Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that there's still quite
the spread in model guidance so I've kept with a persistence
forecast think that a pure blend of the guidance would result in
an incorrect one. That translates in simply indicating an
increase in clouds along with a chance of showers for Wednesday.

Behind the cold front Sunday night temps should trend towards
slightly below normal however there dont appear to be any
frost/freeze concerns in the next 8 days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Generally a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions with
scattered showers and isolated thunder. Northwest wind
increasing to around 10 knots. High confidence in the wind and
cloud cover. Low confidence in the timing of any showers and
thunderstorms.

Tonight...VFR with NW winds around 10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20
to 25 knots. High confidence.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Northwest to west wind 5 to 10
knots, becoming southwest. Medium to high confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Southwest wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR conditions with a chance of showers.
Southwest wind around 10 knots, becoming northwest. Medium
confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gust of
20 to 25 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. Medium
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas initially in the 9-11 ft range will slowly come down today
into tonight and will likely be the in the 7-9 ft range for
most of the day and then 5-7 ft tonight. Winds will initially be
from the SW around 5-10kts and then shift NW tonight sustained
around 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts (although some 25 kts
can't be ruled out particularly over the lower Delaware Bay).

Outlook...

Saturday...Wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 5
feet in the morning, before subsiding in the afternoon.

Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Deal
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Carr
Long Term...Deal
Aviation...Carr/Deal
Marine...Carr/Deal

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
410 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-020815-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
410 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-020815-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
410 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
804 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

DEZ003-MDZ019-020-011300-
Inland Sussex-Talbot-Caroline-
804 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL SUSSEX AND SOUTHEASTERN
CAROLINE COUNTIES...

At 802 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located near Secretary and
Hurlock, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seaford, Denton, Federalsburg, Bridgeville, Preston, Agner, Choptank,
Smithville, Harmony and Blades.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3864 7571 3869 7577 3868 7580 3870 7580
      3871 7584 3870 7590 3868 7593 3867 7593
      3865 7596 3865 7597 3888 7581 3869 7546
      3853 7570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 219DEG 16KT 3854 7592

Iovino

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
848 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

DEZ002-003-MDZ020-011345-
Inland Sussex-Kent-Caroline-
848 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SUSSEX...SOUTH CENTRAL
KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CAROLINE COUNTIES...

At 845 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located near Federalsburg, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seaford, Harrington, Federalsburg, Bridgeville, Ellendale,
Smithville, Andrewsville, Blades, Greenwood and Farmington.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3859 7571 3864 7571 3869 7577 3868 7578
      3868 7580 3870 7581 3896 7564 3875 7531
      3857 7570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 222DEG 17KT 3865 7572

Iovino

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

DEZ002-003-011430-
Inland Sussex-Kent-
950 AM EDT Fri May 1 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SUSSEX AND SOUTHEASTERN
KENT COUNTIES...

At 948 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located near Ellendale, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milford, Milton, Ellendale, Bowers, Big Stone Beach, Greenwood,
Frederica and Houston.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3869 7545 3881 7563 3907 7539 3887 7517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 223DEG 14KT 3881 7549

Iovino