Alert archive / New Jersey / Heat Advisories in 2020

Heat Advisory 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

August 1, 20204 states

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this heat advisory at Aug 1, 2020, 3:20 PM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Aug 2, 2020, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 1, 2020, 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 2, 2020, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Aug 2, 2020, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 28 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2020-08-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2020-08-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
872 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
87 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

368 
WWUS71 KPHI 011920
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-021000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 to 104 are expected.

* WHERE...Northern Delaware, parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, 
  and parts of southern and central New Jersey.

* WHEN...From noon until 8:00 PM on Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
  levels will create the potential for heat related health 
  issues.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned location, stay
out of the sun, and check on elderly relatives and neighbors. 
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in a 
vehicle under any circumstance.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When 
possible reschedule strenuous activities to the early morning or 
late evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and 
heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when 
possible. To reduce your risk during outdoor work, the 
Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends 
scheduling frequent rest breaks in a shaded or air conditioned 
environment. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and
shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Iovino
5 follow-up statements
973 
WWUS71 KPHI 020740
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-022045-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
340 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 to 104 are expected.

* WHERE...Northern Delaware, parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, 
  and parts of southern and central New Jersey.

* WHEN...From noon until 8:00 PM on Sunday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high 
  humidity levels will create the potential for heat related 
  health issues.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
799 
WWUS71 KPHI 021527
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1127 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
1127 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast 
  Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
507 
WWUS71 KPHI 021708
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030000-
/O.EXA.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, 
Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values to around 100 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east-central
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030000-
/O.EXA.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, 
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, 
and Cape May Court House
108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 110 degrees, with the highest in
  portions of Delaware and Marylands Eastern Shore.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland, and
  central and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast 
  Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
733 
WWUS71 KPHI 021937
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast 
  Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, 
Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values to around 100 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east-central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, 
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, 
and Cape May Court House
337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 110 degrees, with the highest 
  in portions of Delaware and Marylands Eastern Shore.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland, 
  and central and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses to occur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$
681 
WWUS71 KPHI 022353
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale,
Morrisville, and Doylestown
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index 
values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s.

$$

NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, 
Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index 
values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s.

$$

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/
Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, 
Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, 
and Cape May Court House
753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index 
values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 1, 12:20 PM EDT, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 12:20 PM EDT, 3 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1220 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain draped just to our south through the
day. The front lifts north as a warm front tonight. Another weak
cold front is expected to approach our region tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias is expected to continue to progress
northward along the southeastern U.S. coast through the weekend,
then should accelerate northeast early next week along the Mid
Atlantic and northeastern U.S. coast. This track could bring
some impacts to our region. High pressure is expected to build
south towards our region during the later half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure will move up the lower Ohio River Valley this
afternoon and it should begin to pull the warm front to our
south slowly toward our region. The leading edge of the clouds
ahead of the system was already over our region.

Marginal instability is expected to develop along the
southwestern edge of our forecast area this afternoon. As a
result, we will continue to mention a chance of a shower or
thunderstorm in northeastern Maryland. Some of the guidance is
also suggesting that an isolated shower or two may develop in
the interior of southern New Jersey.

Highs today should favor the middle and upper 80s in our region
with some spots hitting 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, an upper level trough will be organizing to our
west helping to lift a weak surface low northward into the Great
Lakes region. This will push a warm front through the area.
Along and ahead of this feature expect some showers and storms
to move through...mainly near and after midnight. PWATs will be
rising to 2+ inches once again along with a deep warm cloud
layer so any storms will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall. So expect there will be the potential for urban and
small stream type flooding issues. The best chances for this
look to be over eastern PA. Dew points will be on the rise as
well so it will be a warm, muggy night with lows mostly in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

For Sunday, the warm front lifts north of the area through the
morning bringing this first round of convection to an end. It
will be hot and humid as the area breaks into the warm sector
with peak heat indices potentially reaching or just exceeding
100 degrees especially over interior portions of Delmarva and
southern NJ. This will also result in significant instability
with ML CAPES progged to reach 2000-3000+ j/kg. Shear also looks
to be fairly decent as well...especially in the 0-3 km layer
with values around 30 knots. A cold front slowly approaching
from the west along with diurnal processes look to help trigger
storms by later Sunday afternoon. These will likely initiate
near or just west of the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos
and then move farther east into the CWA. Given the expected set
of very high instability along with modest shear, there will be
the potential once again for severe weather. Damaging winds
look to be the biggest threat. Also, given the continuing very
high PWATs (2+ inches) localized flash flooding will be possible
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary: The main story of the long term remains Isaias and the
potential impacts it could bring to our region, primarily in
the Monday night through Wednesday morning time frame. Towards
the end of the week, tranquil weather may return with high
pressure building down from the north, at least briefly. Isaias
is currently a hurricane, but is forecast to be a tropical storm
as it approaches our region. For the latest information on the
track, intensity, and timing of Isaias, please see the NHC
forecast discussion.

Details:

Sunday night...A weak cold front is expected to approach the
region, potentially resulting in another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night, though with the timing, instability
will be limited so convection may be dissipating as it
approaches the region. It is expected to be a weak temperature
gradient, so low temperatures will remain well above normal,
mostly in the 70s (with the exception of the higher terrain of
the southern Poconos.

Monday...Depending on how quickly an upper level southwesterly
jet develops, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
likely Monday afternoon ahead of any of the outer rain bands
associated with Isaias. It seems like most guidance is backing
off the most progressive solutions of Isaias, so it seems
unlikely that we will see any direct impacts from Isaias during
the day on Monday. However, a combination of the upper level jet
and high cirrus clouds ahead of Isaias should result in mostly
cloudy conditions through the day. That will help to keep our
temperatures near normal for a change, with highs mostly in the
mid to upper 80s.

Monday night through Tuesday night...The only change with this
forecast is that the mention of likely rain was expanded further
west to account for the current forecast track. As for the
impacts, it still appears that the main impact for most of the
region will be heavy rain. As is often the case with tropical
systems, model soundings depict precipitable water values well
above normal and a deep warm cloud layer, increasing the risk
for heavy rain. Details like where the axis of heaviest rain
will be and how much rain we will see are still uncertain.
Interestingly, recent trends with this storm indicate the rain
shield could be very asymmetrical, favoring the eastern side of
the storm. If that continues to hold true, then the heavy rain
threat may shift to be primarily along the coast.

As for the wind impacts, at this point, it looks like the
threat for tropical storm force conditions is mostly for the
coastal plains, but this will be highly dependent not only on
the track as it passes closest to our region, but also upstream.

Wednesday...By most guidance, Isaias should be accelerating
away from our region by Wednesday morning. If this holds, we may
have little in the way of rain after mid day Wednesday.
However, given the uncertainty we've seen with this system,
stayed close to the previous forecast for chances of rain
through the day.

Thursday and Friday... In the wake of Isaias, and the mid and
upper level low which should finally start lifting away from the
Great Lakes region through this period, high pressure is
expected to build in, bringing a return to tranquil conditions.
How long that will last is still uncertain though as some
operational models depict a warm front impinging on the surface
high as early as Friday morning, which could bring another round
of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less, becoming
southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Conditions expected to lower to at least MVFR as some
showers and storms move through. Local IFR conditions will be
possible as well. Winds mainly southeast around 5 knots. Low
confidence on how widespread any storms will be as well as if
IFR conditions will occur. Otherwise moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Becoming VFR with SW winds 10-15 gusting up to 20
knots. Late day, the eastern PA sites could be affected by more
showers and storms bringing brief restrictions to sub-VFR
conditions.

Monday through Wednesday...Periods of MVFR or even IFR
conditions with rain and some thunderstorms. Southwest to
southeast winds 5-10 knots. However, expect shifts and
increasing winds as Isaias passes close to our region on
Tuesday, especially along the coast including KACY. A shift to
northeasterly then northwesterly is possible near the storm. As
the storm moves away on Wednesday, winds should once again be
southwesterly and light (less than 10 kt). Low confidence
especially with details of timing of lower conditions and winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A northeast wind around 10 knots is forecast to veer to the
southeast through the day. Wave heights on our ocean waters are
expected to range from 2 to 4 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay
should be 2 feet or less.

Little change is expected for tonight however by later Sunday
both winds and seas will be increasing to near low end SCA
conditions.

Outlook...
Monday through Wednesday...The details will depend on the track
and intensity of Hurricane Isaias as it tracks north and
northeastward. Hazardous seas and winds look probable, however
the specific details remain uncertain at this time including the
timing.

Rip Currents...
A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for this afternoon
due to a long period swell.

For Sunday, the surf height will be increasing however the
period should be shorter. For this reason, we continue a
moderate risk.

A significant increase in rip current potential is likely into
early next week as Hurricane Isaias tracks near the East Coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For areas along the southern New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic
coasts, as well as areas along Delaware Bay, some spotty minor
flooding is possible again with the high tide this evening. At
this point there remains considerable uncertainty with the track
and timing of Isaias, and thus the ultimate impacts it may have
on tide levels primarily Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia
Park, Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air, but
repairs are anticipated soon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Johnson
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Johnson
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Johnson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI
Equipment...WFO PHI
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 4:13 AM EDT, 11 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-020815-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week,
excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012-013-015>023-027-PAZ070-
071-102-104-106-020815-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat indices are forecast to be around 100 degrees Sunday afternoon,
and therefore a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the
area.

Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week,
excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding.
Tidal flooding and gusty winds will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-020815-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The moderate risk for rip currents is expected to continue into
Sunday and is likely to stay elevated through the first half of the
week.

Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week,
excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding.
Tidal flooding and strong winds will also be possible. Dangerous surf
and rip currents are probable.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

ANZ430-431-450>455-020815-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week, strong
winds and dangerous surf are probable.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 1, 4:04 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI37 hr

Nearby

Heat Advisories in New Jersey, 2020Heat Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2020Heat Advisories in Maryland, 2020Every heat advisory in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.