Alert archive / New Jersey / Heat Advisories in 2020
Heat Advisory 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this heat advisory at Aug 1, 2020, 3:20 PM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Aug 2, 2020, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2020, 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 2, 2020, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 2, 2020, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 28 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The nearest sounding before it
Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 872 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
368 WWUS71 KPHI 011920 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-021000- /O.NEW.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 320 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 to 104 are expected. * WHERE...Northern Delaware, parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, and parts of southern and central New Jersey. * WHEN...From noon until 8:00 PM on Sunday. * IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity levels will create the potential for heat related health issues. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned location, stay out of the sun, and check on elderly relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in a vehicle under any circumstance. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to the early morning or late evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce your risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in a shaded or air conditioned environment. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$ Iovino
5 follow-up statements
973 WWUS71 KPHI 020740 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-022045- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 340 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 to 104 are expected. * WHERE...Northern Delaware, parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, and parts of southern and central New Jersey. * WHEN...From noon until 8:00 PM on Sunday. * IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity levels will create the potential for heat related health issues. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
799 WWUS71 KPHI 021527 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1127 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.200802T1600Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 1127 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
507 WWUS71 KPHI 021708 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030000- /O.EXA.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery- Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values to around 100 degrees. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$ DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030000- /O.EXA.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, and Cape May Court House 108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 110 degrees, with the highest in portions of Delaware and Marylands Eastern Shore. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland, and central and southern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$ DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 108 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees. * WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
733 WWUS71 KPHI 021937 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees. * WHERE...Portions of northern to southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$ NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery- Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values to around 100 degrees. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$ DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, and Cape May Court House 337 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 110 degrees, with the highest in portions of Delaware and Marylands Eastern Shore. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland, and central and southern Delaware. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1. && $$
681 WWUS71 KPHI 022353 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 DEZ001-NJZ010-012-013-015>020-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-030100- /O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ New Castle-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, West Chester, Kennett Square, Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s. $$ NJZ009-PAZ060-061-101-103-105-030100- /O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Western Montgomery- Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s. $$ DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-030100- /O.EXP.KPHI.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-200803T0000Z/ Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Including the cities of Dover, Georgetown, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Millville, Hammonton, and Cape May Court House 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020 ...HEAT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... Temperatures will continue to decrease this evening. Heat index values tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the 90s. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heat advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heat advisory went out at Aug 1, 12:20 PM EDT, 3 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 12:20 PM EDT, 3 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1220 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain draped just to our south through the day. The front lifts north as a warm front tonight. Another weak cold front is expected to approach our region tomorrow night. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias is expected to continue to progress northward along the southeastern U.S. coast through the weekend, then should accelerate northeast early next week along the Mid Atlantic and northeastern U.S. coast. This track could bring some impacts to our region. High pressure is expected to build south towards our region during the later half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure will move up the lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon and it should begin to pull the warm front to our south slowly toward our region. The leading edge of the clouds ahead of the system was already over our region. Marginal instability is expected to develop along the southwestern edge of our forecast area this afternoon. As a result, we will continue to mention a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in northeastern Maryland. Some of the guidance is also suggesting that an isolated shower or two may develop in the interior of southern New Jersey. Highs today should favor the middle and upper 80s in our region with some spots hitting 90. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For tonight, an upper level trough will be organizing to our west helping to lift a weak surface low northward into the Great Lakes region. This will push a warm front through the area. Along and ahead of this feature expect some showers and storms to move through...mainly near and after midnight. PWATs will be rising to 2+ inches once again along with a deep warm cloud layer so any storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. So expect there will be the potential for urban and small stream type flooding issues. The best chances for this look to be over eastern PA. Dew points will be on the rise as well so it will be a warm, muggy night with lows mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s. For Sunday, the warm front lifts north of the area through the morning bringing this first round of convection to an end. It will be hot and humid as the area breaks into the warm sector with peak heat indices potentially reaching or just exceeding 100 degrees especially over interior portions of Delmarva and southern NJ. This will also result in significant instability with ML CAPES progged to reach 2000-3000+ j/kg. Shear also looks to be fairly decent as well...especially in the 0-3 km layer with values around 30 knots. A cold front slowly approaching from the west along with diurnal processes look to help trigger storms by later Sunday afternoon. These will likely initiate near or just west of the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos and then move farther east into the CWA. Given the expected set of very high instability along with modest shear, there will be the potential once again for severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the biggest threat. Also, given the continuing very high PWATs (2+ inches) localized flash flooding will be possible as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Summary: The main story of the long term remains Isaias and the potential impacts it could bring to our region, primarily in the Monday night through Wednesday morning time frame. Towards the end of the week, tranquil weather may return with high pressure building down from the north, at least briefly. Isaias is currently a hurricane, but is forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches our region. For the latest information on the track, intensity, and timing of Isaias, please see the NHC forecast discussion. Details: Sunday night...A weak cold front is expected to approach the region, potentially resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, though with the timing, instability will be limited so convection may be dissipating as it approaches the region. It is expected to be a weak temperature gradient, so low temperatures will remain well above normal, mostly in the 70s (with the exception of the higher terrain of the southern Poconos. Monday...Depending on how quickly an upper level southwesterly jet develops, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely Monday afternoon ahead of any of the outer rain bands associated with Isaias. It seems like most guidance is backing off the most progressive solutions of Isaias, so it seems unlikely that we will see any direct impacts from Isaias during the day on Monday. However, a combination of the upper level jet and high cirrus clouds ahead of Isaias should result in mostly cloudy conditions through the day. That will help to keep our temperatures near normal for a change, with highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Monday night through Tuesday night...The only change with this forecast is that the mention of likely rain was expanded further west to account for the current forecast track. As for the impacts, it still appears that the main impact for most of the region will be heavy rain. As is often the case with tropical systems, model soundings depict precipitable water values well above normal and a deep warm cloud layer, increasing the risk for heavy rain. Details like where the axis of heaviest rain will be and how much rain we will see are still uncertain. Interestingly, recent trends with this storm indicate the rain shield could be very asymmetrical, favoring the eastern side of the storm. If that continues to hold true, then the heavy rain threat may shift to be primarily along the coast. As for the wind impacts, at this point, it looks like the threat for tropical storm force conditions is mostly for the coastal plains, but this will be highly dependent not only on the track as it passes closest to our region, but also upstream. Wednesday...By most guidance, Isaias should be accelerating away from our region by Wednesday morning. If this holds, we may have little in the way of rain after mid day Wednesday. However, given the uncertainty we've seen with this system, stayed close to the previous forecast for chances of rain through the day. Thursday and Friday... In the wake of Isaias, and the mid and upper level low which should finally start lifting away from the Great Lakes region through this period, high pressure is expected to build in, bringing a return to tranquil conditions. How long that will last is still uncertain though as some operational models depict a warm front impinging on the surface high as early as Friday morning, which could bring another round of rain. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less, becoming southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Tonight...Conditions expected to lower to at least MVFR as some showers and storms move through. Local IFR conditions will be possible as well. Winds mainly southeast around 5 knots. Low confidence on how widespread any storms will be as well as if IFR conditions will occur. Otherwise moderate confidence. Outlook... Sunday...Becoming VFR with SW winds 10-15 gusting up to 20 knots. Late day, the eastern PA sites could be affected by more showers and storms bringing brief restrictions to sub-VFR conditions. Monday through Wednesday...Periods of MVFR or even IFR conditions with rain and some thunderstorms. Southwest to southeast winds 5-10 knots. However, expect shifts and increasing winds as Isaias passes close to our region on Tuesday, especially along the coast including KACY. A shift to northeasterly then northwesterly is possible near the storm. As the storm moves away on Wednesday, winds should once again be southwesterly and light (less than 10 kt). Low confidence especially with details of timing of lower conditions and winds. && .MARINE... A northeast wind around 10 knots is forecast to veer to the southeast through the day. Wave heights on our ocean waters are expected to range from 2 to 4 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay should be 2 feet or less. Little change is expected for tonight however by later Sunday both winds and seas will be increasing to near low end SCA conditions. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...The details will depend on the track and intensity of Hurricane Isaias as it tracks north and northeastward. Hazardous seas and winds look probable, however the specific details remain uncertain at this time including the timing. Rip Currents... A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for this afternoon due to a long period swell. For Sunday, the surf height will be increasing however the period should be shorter. For this reason, we continue a moderate risk. A significant increase in rip current potential is likely into early next week as Hurricane Isaias tracks near the East Coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... For areas along the southern New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coasts, as well as areas along Delaware Bay, some spotty minor flooding is possible again with the high tide this evening. At this point there remains considerable uncertainty with the track and timing of Isaias, and thus the ultimate impacts it may have on tide levels primarily Tuesday into Wednesday. && .EQUIPMENT... The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air, but repairs are anticipated soon. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Fitzsimmons Long Term...Johnson Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Johnson Marine...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Johnson Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI Equipment...WFO PHI
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 4:13 AM EDT, 11 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-020815- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- 413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week, excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012-013-015>023-027-PAZ070- 071-102-104-106-020815- New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Caroline-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester- Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- 413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heat indices are forecast to be around 100 degrees Sunday afternoon, and therefore a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area. Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week, excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding. Tidal flooding and gusty winds will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-020815- Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- 413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The moderate risk for rip currents is expected to continue into Sunday and is likely to stay elevated through the first half of the week. Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week, excessive rainfall is possible that may result in some flooding. Tidal flooding and strong winds will also be possible. Dangerous surf and rip currents are probable. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. ANZ430-431-450>455-020815- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 413 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Depending on the track of Hurricane Isaias early next week, strong winds and dangerous surf are probable. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 4:04 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | PHI | 37 hr |
Nearby
Heat Advisories in New Jersey, 2020Heat Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2020Heat Advisories in Maryland, 2020Every heat advisory in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.