Areal Flood Advisory 94, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
142 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front extended from the Saint Lawrence River Valley, across
the eastern Great Lakes to the middle Mississippi River Valley
early this morning. The front is expected to progress
southeast and it should arrive in eastern Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey late tonight. The boundary is forecast to
stall in our region on Friday before drifting to the southeast
and dissipating on Friday night. Bermuda high pressure is
anticipated to gain influence over our weather during the
weekend and into the early part of the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The showers and tstms from earlier have passed offshore. A
relative lull in convection has occurred and now more showers
and tstms are developing far N/W. Most models indicate that this
activity will increase in coverage and intensity thru the
afternoon and spread SE. Pops have been adjusted to keep up with
present trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Storms will likely linger into the late evening to early
overnight. CAMs disagree quite a bit as to how quickly
convection will dissipate and/or shift southward out of the CWA
tonight. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms will be for the
southern half of the CWA from Philadelphia southward through
overnight. Given the significant spread in model outcomes, this
remains a rather low- confidence forecast tonight in terms of
precipitation chances. Lows will drop into the low to mid 70s
with more patchy fog possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary is forecast to extend across northern New
Jersey and into eastern Pennsylvania early on Friday morning. It
should stall in the vicinity of the Interstate 95 Corridor in
our region on Friday, before drifting to the southeast and
dissipating. We will continue to mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Friday. Highs should be mainly in the middle
and upper 80s.

Slightly drier air is anticipated to arrive in the wake of the
front for the weekend. However, temperatures will be quite warm
with highs mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The chance for
precipitation on Saturday and Sunday will be limited.

Bermuda high pressure is expected to control our weather for
Monday. A general southwest flow should bring a slight increase
in both heat and humidity. A weak impulse traveling in the
westerly mid level flow will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey in
the afternoon.

A frontal boundary is forecast to approach from the northwest
on Tuesday and it should pass through much of our region on
Tuesday night. The system is expected to bring showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Conditions will remain hot and humid in advance of the front.

The frontal passage is anticipated to knock temperatures and
humidity levels downward a bit for Wednesday. However, a mid
level short wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes may
touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR has returned to most areas after the
morning convection across the Del Valley region. More activity
developing far NW will increase in coverage and move SE thru the
afternoon. AMDS expected. Local MVFR/IFR possible.  Mostly W to
SW winds 5 to 10 knots outside of convection.

Tonight...VFR conditions likely dropping to MVFR, possibly even
IFR depending on the development of fog overnight. Southwest
winds from 5 to 10 knots turning light and variable after 06Z.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Variable wind 10 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Friday night...Mainly VFR. However, late night visibility
restrictions and low clouds may develop. Variable wind 6 knots
or less. Medium confidence.

Saturday...Early morning visibility restrictions and low clouds
are possible, otherwise VFR. Variable wind 10 knots or less.
Medium confidence.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.
Medium confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium
confidence.

Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Late night visibility restrictions
may develop. Variable wind 6 knots or less. Medium confidence.

Monday...Early morning visibility restrictions are possible,
otherwise mainly VFR. A chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly around KRDG and KABE. Southwest wind 5 to
10 knots. Medium confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally sub-advisory conditions this afternoon and tonight
with southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.
Showers and thunderstorms expected with locally stronger wind
gusts possible. Seas mostly 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents...

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
today with wave heights from 1 to 3 feet and a medium period
southerly swell.

The forecast is expected to remain similar for Friday with another
low risk day.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park,
Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) will remain off the air until
further notice.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...PO
Short Term...Davis
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Davis/Iovino/PO
Marine...Davis/Iovino
Equipment...WFO  PHI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-240815-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be accompanied by
damaging wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-240815-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be accompanied by
damaging wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

ANZ430-431-450>455-240815-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
404 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be accompanied by wind
gusts in excess of 35 knots and frequent cloud to surface lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

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