Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
514 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will move across the region this evening and possibly
into the overnight hours. Somewhat cooler, drier weather will then
follow through the first half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
New update was issued as the Heat Advisory has been cancelled.

Previous...
Changes for the eve update included the increase of precip probs to
likely numbers for tonight as a broad upper trough/frontal zone will
be providing sufficient forcing-for-ascent/lift for widespread
showers and storms.

The primary question is of severe potential as very warm air in the
mid levels is inhibiting updraft explosiveness. Still, a dry swath of
air around 15 to 20 kft may provide sufficient cooling for some
downburst cores to develop and generate damaging gusts.
Slight/scattered risk for severe thus continues.

Otherwise, high precipital water on the order of 1.5 inches, warm
rain process, and local training of cells may contribute to a
isolated flash flood threat, especially for urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Convection should clear the forecast area by dawn Monday. Some
residual activity may be possible along the frontal boundary as it
nears West Virginia and Maryland but intensity/coverage should be
less at this point with the loss of instability aloft.

Deep layer zonal flow will resume after the departure of Sunday's
shortwave trough. This parallel sfc boundary-flow aloft will result
in the cold front stalling out and washing out (becoming more
diffuse w/ time) somewhere in the vicinity of our southern counties.
A few convective showers are possible near the boundary during peak
heating Monday, mainly due to orographic lift.

Otherwise, anticipate comparatively-cooler and tranquil weather on
Monday, with highs topping out around 90 (dew points 5-10 degrees
below Sunday will make this feel quite a bit better).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A series of vorticity maxima embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft
will traverse across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday before
troughing deepens across the northeast CONUS on Thursday with a more
substantial low pressure system and attendant cold front. Each day
will feature a chance of thunderstorms, along with seasonably warm
conditions.

After the cold front passage on Thursday night, near or below-average
temperature is then possible for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing coverage of convection with a frontal zone encroachment
will degrade conditions through the evening. Expect cig restrictions
and at least showers to persist into early Monday before building
high pres returns VFR to all terminals.

.Outlook...
The next chc for genl restrictions will come with a mid week
shortwave trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

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