Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1210 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and overnight,
with large hail and strong winds. Additional rain is expected
Thursday with a cold front before dry weather returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A drying and quickly warming trend has been observed upstream,
coincident with CAPE building from the South, which will maintain the
severe threat this afternoon. A lull in convective activity is
likely as well as an EML arrives and caps convection lending the
environment both the opportunity and the time to destabilize and dry
post- morning convection.

It appears as if jet dynamical ascent will provide the necessary
vertical motion to puncture the EML this afternoon in Eastern Ohio,
which will allow any thunderstorm updraft access to an unstable
environment aloft capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and
a mesocyclone. Veering wind with height and an EML puncture attitude
suggests this afternoon/evening looks to be isolated and cellular.

A sfc cold front should initiate more linear coverage of convection
upstream across Eastern Michigan late this evening, dropping
southeast into the Ohio Valley late tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Convective mode for this round will likely be QLCS- like,
with the threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated
embedded tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-morning Wednesday shortwave ridging will ensue coincident with
a brief dry period and above normal temperature. Late Wednesday a
positively tilted trough North of the Great Lakes will drag a robust
cold front through the area with another round of precipitation
possible through the overnight into Thursday. Much colder air will
arrive behind the front and may prompt a change to snow Thursday
night. At this time, only minor-to- trace accumulations are expected
north of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shortwaves embedded in NW flow will bring the chance for rain/mixed
with snow showers and cold temperature Friday. At this time little to
no accumulation is expected. High pressure returns Saturday,
returning dry weather through much of the weekend. Crossing low
pressure and upper troughing will return rain chances late this
weekend into early next week. Temperature will moderate back to the
seasonal norm through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With most sites favoring a decent dewpoint/temp spread and warm
advection prevailing, VFR ceilings will be observed until early
afternoon despite lingering rain showers. A brief period of MVFR vis
could be experience in a heavier downpour.

By late afternoon a shortwave over northern Ohio will kick off
another round of scattered showers/thunderstorms. A few of TAF sites
could see severe storms; will continue to hold TSRA for all sites
this afternoon.

Hi-Res models have come to agreement that a line of strong
thunderstorms are expected to form near Lake Erie and quickly move
south late tonight/early tomorrow morning. IFR conditions are likely
across sites between 04Z-09Z within the line and then possible
afterwards as low- level moisture becomes trapped in stagnant air.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are forecast to persist until early Wednesday before
improvement ensues. Expect conditions to degrade once again with a
cold front passage on Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1231 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514-081645-
Garrett-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-
Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1231 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected through late tonight. A Slight Risk for
severe storms is possible beginning this afternoon through early
Wednesday, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-081645-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-
1231 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected today through late tonight. An Enhanced
Risk for severe storms is possible beginning this afternoon through
early Wednesday, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
421 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

OHZ057-072045-
Muskingum-
421 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WIND WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MUSKINGUM COUNTY...

At 421 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near South
Zanesville, or near Zanesville, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zanesville...                     South Zanesville...
North Zanesville...               Philo...
Pleasant Grove...                 Fultonham...
Cannelville...                    Chandlersville...
Ruraldale...                      Bridgeville...
Duncan Falls...                   East Fultonham...

This includes  Interstate 70 in Ohio between mile markers 145 and
164.

LAT...LON 3995 8220 3997 8220 4005 8184 3976 8179
      3977 8208 3982 8208 3982 8216 3985 8217
      3991 8216 3991 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 254DEG 19KT 3991 8209