Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1113 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather with periodic showers and storms is expected through
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A shortwave trough will slowly move through the region today. The
large scale ascension associated with this feature will weaken as it
works to eject the ridge that was over a portion of the region on
Sunday. This is also leading to the slow eastward progression. An
area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the
entire region today. Cam models are indicating enhancement of
convection this afternoon, mainly over the northern half of the
region as this is the location where the main shortwave will swing
through and where the more unstable atmosphere will be located.

With the trough moving through, the area will see plenty of cloud
cover which will work to lower convective strength. The atmosphere
ahead of the trough will be unstable, but shear will be relatively
weak. This would point to a situation where convection should be able
to initiate quickly, but may have trouble intensifying and sustaining
due to the weaker wind shear.

Temperatures across the area will be a bit tricky due to the timing
of the clouds and showers

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Atmosphere will quickly stabilize tonight, and the axis of upper
level energy will move over eastern PA. This will allow for a break
in the activity late tonight.

The next trough, and its associated surface cold front, will push
through the area on Tuesday. This will provide the region with
another round of showers and storms. Cloud cover and weak
instability will work to limit convective strength and coverage.

This system will exit to the east Tuesday night ending the threat for
additional activity.

Wednesday will start out dry, but another weak shortwave trough will
provide the risk for scattered or isolated showers and storms
Wednesday afternoon.

Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area will dry out to end the week. Another system will swing through
this weekend, providing another risk for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at most terminals with scattered showers
around for terminals along or west of the I-79 corridor due to
shortwave trough crossing the region. Pockets of MVFR ceilings and
occasional vsby restriction with the crossing of a shower, but
ceilings should otherwise remain around 5000 feet today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again
this afternoon with a crossing shortwave trough before waning
overnight. Fog development is possible Monday night, but confidence
in affecting any terminal is too low to put in the TAF package for
now.

.Outlook...
Periodic rain and restriction chances anticipated are likely through
mid week with several passing disturbances and a frontal approach.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
904 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-231315-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
904 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and the northern
panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the region this afternoon. A few
storms may become severe, with damaging wind and large hail as the
primary threats with the strongest of storms. Localized flooding may
also be possible with heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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