Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather can be expected through the weekend as can
periodic showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers and storms continue to develop with the advance of
a weak cold front across Ohio. That front extends from low pressure
digging across Lake Erie - convergence area east of that low and the
frontal encroachment will continue to provide lift in the warm,
humid, and modest-deep-layer-shear environment over the Upr OH.
Severe storms thus remain possible, but limiting factors include the
strong warm advection which has infected the mid levels; hence,
limiting deep, explosive CAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering convection along the front will slowly meander southeast
through the area tonight keeping a small chance of precip through the
night and into the day on Friday with weak instability.

Mainly dry weather is then expected through Saturday as sfc
high pressure/shortwave ridging builds across the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Isolated showers are possible again Saturday night as a weak
shortwave trough crosses the region around the periphery of an upper
high across the SE CONUS. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10
degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model ensemble solutions continue to indicate an upper high
persisting across the southern half of the CONUS through early next
week. Relatively weak shortwaves are progged to periodically cross
the Upper Ohio Valley region on the northern periphery of the high.
These waves, along with diurnal instability, should lead to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the region, especially during the
afternoon and evening. The high should weaken some by mid week, as a
somewhat stronger trough crosses the Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley
region, with continued scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures should continue to average 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR wl be marred this aftn and eve by convection spawned by
the encroachment of a weak cold front. Thereafter, low-level
moisture pooling along the frontal boundary will support fog and
status for late tngt and early Friday.

.Outlook...
Periodic convection and restrictions can be expected through the
weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-171730-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania,
northern West Virginia and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ001-WVZ012-021-509>514-171730-
Garrett-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
124 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland and northern
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Scattered instances of strong storms are
possible, with strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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