Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020

Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

A strong cold front currently is located from central Oklahoma
northeast through northwest Illinois. It is expected to reach our
northwest counties around 17Z or 18Z and will push through the
entire area by 00Z Saturday. A narrow band of showers and possibly
some thunderstorms will accompany the front through the region. There
is also the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing over much of our area ahead of the front, beginning as
early as 09Z this morning. If the pre-frontal convection develops
and persists with decent coverage well into the morning, that
would limit the amount of surface-based instability available to
the cold front.

The NAM stays fairly dry ahead of the front and generates up to
3000J/kg of surface-based CAPE. Although there will be some
veering of the winds with height, speeds are too low to generate
much useful shear. So, if we can destabilize a few strong updrafts
could produce some very isolated strong winds and hail, but
organized severe weather looks like quite a stretch. SPC has
maintained a Marginal Risk of severe which given the air mass in
place seems reasonable. The front may not light up until it has
entered our area, and certainly the coverage and intensity of
convection will increase as it passes southeast through the
region.

The frontal convection should quickly pass and little if any
precipitation is expected behind the front. The entire region
should be dry shortly after 00Z. North winds will gust behind the
front and continue through tonight before diminishing on Saturday.
With strong zonal flow aloft Saturday, the surface high will pass
by to our north, so the prospects for any clearing will be
limited to the I-64 corridor Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday the flow aloft will increase and back to the southwest,
as energy dives into the intermountain west. We should remain dry
Sunday, despite the NAM's widespread light QPF. The only moisture
will be trapped beneath a strong inversion based just above 850mb.
NAM soundings show that this moist layer may be deep enough to
produce some light rain/drizzle if there is any lift in the layer.
That is unlikely given the very stable lapse rates it will have
to overcome.

Sunday night an inverted surface trough is expected to develop
in the vicinity of the Ohio River, as impulses emerge from the
western trough and zip quickly toward our region in the strong
southwest flow. Showers and even some elevated thunderstorms will
be possible north of the surface trough Sunday night mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Our new week will start out rather wet as an unsettled pattern sets
up especially for the first part of the week. A front will develop
over the region by 12Z Monday and then slide southeast through the
day. An upper level positively tilted trough will be situated over
the northern Plains into the Rockies at the start of the period and
slowly shift east with time. As this occurs, a strong upper level
jet will migrate east causing mid to upper-level southwesterly
flow to increase over the area. This will aid in bringing very
deep moisture into the region Monday into Monday night. As was the
case yesterday with the operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF as well
as many of their ensemble members, we should see multiple rounds
of rain with the heaviest totals more centered across our northern
sections, from portions of southeast Missouri into southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana. This axis of heavier QPF will
shift southeast Monday night and encompass more of western KY but
amounts do not look as high. Latest WPC QPF for Monday through
Monday night shows the highest swath of rain north of a line from
Paducah to Henderson and indicates 1 to 1.5 inches. Latest GFS
PWATS show the highest numbers actually across western KY Monday
afternoon into the evening but still well over an inch elsewhere
to warrant the threat for heavy rainfall. Not sure how much
thunder we will see but there are hints of at least a bit of
elevated instability to warrant the chance mention we have going.

By Tuesday, the main upper level jet dynamics moves northeast so our
focus for more substantial rainfall leave the area. However, still
will be dealing with muddled southwesterly flow aloft as the
southern end of our aforementioned trough closes off over the
southwestern US. Will be difficult to pinpoint this far out exactly
where the best chances of rain will be so a broad brushed 20-30
percent will have to do for now. The northern end of the upper
trough splits off and moves across the upper Midwest which ends up
flattening the flow over our area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will slowly build eastward from the
central Plains and tend to help dry us out a bit. Therefore, Tuesday
night into Wednesday look fairly dry at least for now. At some point
mid to late week, the upper level closed low will get a move on and
impact the area. However, how quickly that happens is still up in
the air but addressing this signal with some low end PoPs seems
prudent at this juncture.

Temperatures continue to be troublesome for the week. Looking at the
GEFS ensemble members and ECMWF ensemble temperature anomalies,
there could be quite a range of readings with cool temps northwest
to much warmer temps southeast for Monday. However, by Tuesday 850
mb temperatures lower a bit as the flow becomes more westerly. Most
of the area looks to stay in the 50s for highs, and some of the
probabilities from the GEFS/ECMWF suggest some locales in our far
northwestern counties may struggle to reach 50.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020

Scattered showers early this morning. Gusty southwest winds ahead
of the cold front. Thunderstorms should accompany cold front esp
KPAH, KEVV, and KOWB. Gusts to 24kts behind the front and for
several hours after. Cigs become MVFR with storms just ahead of
the front and remain after frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...PS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
340 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
340 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along and possibly
ahead of a cold front that will move through the region this
afternoon. A few strong storms with gusty winds and some hail
cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Otherwise, a brief heavy
downpour and some lightning will be the primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois late Sunday night and throughout the region
Monday and Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS/CW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

MOZ110-231830-
Stoddard MO-
1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL STODDARD COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dudley, or near Dexter, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dexter, Bloomfield, Essex, Bell City and Dudley.

LAT...LON 3684 9021 3707 8978 3699 8972 3698 8972
      3695 8971 3695 8970 3693 8969 3689 8969
      3688 8970 3686 8969 3686 8970 3685 8970
      3669 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 239DEG 49KT 3681 9007

PS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
122 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

KYZ008-011>013-231900-
Marshall KY-Lyon KY-Caldwell KY-Trigg KY-
122 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...EAST
CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHERN TRIGG AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Land Between The Lakes Area, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cadiz, Land Between The Lakes Area, Cobb and Rockcastle.

LAT...LON 3692 8821 3714 8769 3703 8771 3700 8773
      3696 8766 3689 8767 3676 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 247DEG 20KT 3688 8811

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
201 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ILZ076-077-082-083-231945-
White IL-Edwards IL-Hamilton IL-Wayne IL-
201 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHITE...SOUTHEASTERN
WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Enfield, or 10 miles northeast of Mcleansboro,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albion, Crossville, Enfield, Mill Shoals, Springerton, Burnt Prairie
and Phillipstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 8848 3831 8852 3838 8802 3813 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 251DEG 28KT 3821 8842

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW GRAYVILLE         38.30N 88.08W
10/23/2020                   EDWARDS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME SIZE HAIL.
            LIMBS DOWN.

&&

PS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ILZ094-KYZ005-006-232100-
Massac IL-McCracken KY-Graves KY-
316 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC...MCCRACKEN
AND NORTHWESTERN GRAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Barkley Regional Airport, or 7 miles west of Lone Oak, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paducah, Metropolis, Lone Oak, Brookport, West Paducah and Barkley
Regional Airport.

LAT...LON 3695 8881 3707 8887 3727 8862 3716 8849
      3707 8849 3708 8856 3707 8857 3697 8853
      3688 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 234DEG 36KT 3703 8880

PS