Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

The RAP indicates our current isolated convection should increase
in coverage to scattered over the next couple of hours, and both
the RAP and HRRR show some convection continuing into the evening.
Increased our pops a little this evening and extended them out a
little longer. The short term models also show some development in
portions of the Ozark foothills late tonight, so included some
small pops for this area.

For Memorial Day, models continue to show a wave working up the
east side of the mid/upper level trof centered over the Plains.
Models advertise more significant coverage in convection,
especially by the afternoon hours, and continued with likely pops.
Continued southerly flow will keep up warm and humid, with highs
in the upper 80s and dew points near 70 degrees. Convection will
again continue into the evening, with any lingering chances
focused across our southwest counties overnight.

This pattern continues as weak disturbances continue to move
along the trof. Convection will again be likely across the entire
PAH forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with decreasing chances during
the evening with loss of heating. However, chances will continue
area wide Tuesday night with the trof slowly moving closer to the
middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be a few degrees
lower for Tuesday with a little more cloud cover and winds
becoming more southeast than south as a surface low moves
southwest of our region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Not much has changed with the long term. A summer like airmass will
remain entrenched across the Quad State, as we sandwich between
Low pressure that has been consistently modeled to cut off over
the Southern Plains, and High pressure that has been consistently
strong in its East Coast ridging. This makes for a persistence
strategy, steady state forecast with average daily high and low
temperatures in the 80s/60s through the bulk of the forecast.

Another repeat signal of the forecast is the diurnally favored drive
to pops. Fairly high pops on any one day does not mean that the 5
day period is a wash out. Conversely, it would appear that it
will be largely dry, with pops waning at night, and peaking during
the heat of the afternoon. Since there is no discernible,
sustained forcing or features of lift assistance available,
precipitating will mostly be induced by the free rise generated of
the parcel with afternoon heating. Perhaps an exception to this
(other than anywhere/anytime meso boundary influence) will be in
western parts, closer to the proximity of the Low, a little better
forcing may take place and focus a little higher pop, accordingly,
for SEMO.

Finally, the blend continues some hope that a more
active/progressive northern stream flow will allow for a cold
front to slip down into the Ohio River Valley late in the week. If
this occurs, this would offer another trigger and lift support to
focus pops, but also, it would potentially infiltrate some
slightly cooler and drier air post fropa, for next weekend. The
blend continues to hint at this with temps moving from low and mid
80s to upper 70s and around 80 for highs, and from upper 60s to
upper 50s/low 60s for lows, for next weekend (as dew points move
similarly). We'll again offer no rebuttal for days 6-7 as produced
by the blend, unless of course collab consensus dictates
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Shower and storm activity has decreased through the Quad State
over the past couple hours. Looking at only KCGI/KMVN with notable
enough thunder chances early this evening. Elsewhere, cloud cover
has significantly diminished and is expected to stay mostly clear
overnight. Winds will remain light and variable overnight and
southerly during the day tomorrow. Another round of showers and
storms is expected Memorial Day, with the afternoon again
providing the highest chances of thunder. Skies should remain VFR
with the exception of temporary vsby or cig drops to MVFR with
showers and storms.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...ATL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-252030-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
531 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The best chance areas for scattered thunderstorms this evening will
be southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and the Kentucky
Pennyrile region, though isolated activity cannot be completely
ruled out at any location. Lightning, small hail, gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be the possible with the stronger storms.
Overall, chances should diminish overnight. But additional activity
cannot be ruled out as the pattern remains unsettled.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be most active during the
peak heating hours of the afternoon and early evening Memorial Day
through Saturday. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the
primary storm associated hazards, but an isolated damaging wind
gust is also possible in a stronger storm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

ILZ084-MOZ076-087-242345-
Jackson IL-Cape Girardeau MO-Perry MO-
610 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 610 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Altenburg, or 11 miles northwest of Trail Of Tears State Park, moving
north at 25 mph.

Up to one half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Tower, Altenburg, Frohna and Gorham.

LAT...LON 3750 8957 3752 8969 3775 8965 3772 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 193DEG 22KT 3759 8961

CN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

ILZ084-MOZ076-087-250030-
Jackson IL-Cape Girardeau MO-Perry MO-
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Altenburg, or 8 miles northwest of Trail Of Tears State Park, moving
north, northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Murphysboro, Elkville, Ava, Grand Tower, Altenburg, Dowell, Campbell
Hill, Vergennes, Frohna, Gorham and Pocahontas.

LAT...LON 3795 8918 3760 8946 3757 8950 3758 8951
      3757 8952 3752 8951 3742 8959 3747 8971
      3795 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 200DEG 21KT 3755 8960

CN