Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The severe weather threat continues across the southern part of
the area this afternoon as a bowing line of severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds moves from southeast Missouri into western
Kentucky, clipping far southern Illinois. Lack of clouds and
convection overnight allowed the atmosphere to destabilize
substantially through the day, especially along and south of a
southward drifting frontal boundary. Expect the line to continue
with its current intensity through the rest of the afternoon, with
damaging winds the main concern. Secondary concerns include large
hail and a few spin up tornadoes. The line should clear the FA by
22Z this evening as the cold front passes through the area. Lows
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with clearing skies.

We'll see break in the rain through much of Monday. However, during
the afternoon and evening hours, the front will try to retreat north
as surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains. This will
set the stage for another round of showers and storms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours. The potential for severe
thunderstorms will depend on how far north the front advances. For
now, thinking the best chance of surface-based strong storms will be
across southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois and into western
Kentucky, where the SPC Day 2 outlook has a slight risk. A few
damaging wind gusts and hail look to be the primary threats.

On Monday, temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s.
Overnight lows Monday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
and middle to update 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The main focus in the long term is the lingering chance of showers
with the departing system on Tuesday, followed by another chance for
showers Wednesday, then again late Thursday into Friday. Forecast
confidence is about average with good large scale agreement marred
by some lingering temporal and spatial discrepancies among forecast
models.

The forecast starts off with a lingering chance of showers Tuesday
morning with low pressure forecast to be in the vicinity of western
Kentucky and western Tennessee at daybreak. Most of this activity
should wrap up in the morning as the low continues its eastward
progression.

The upper flow pattern through the remainder of the week will be
dominated by northwesterly flow as an upper level low over Hudson
Bay drops south towards the Great Lakes. This flow pattern should be
largely dry from Tuesday night through much of Thursday. However,
models continue to signal the passage of a weak shortwave trough on
Wednesday, which could provide enough lift for a small chance of
showers, especially across portions of southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.

Our next chance of showers arrives late Thursday into Friday as
more substantial energy entering the Pacific Northwest by mid week
streams southeast towards the region. Continue to leave thunder
out of the forecast at this time given the very marginal nature of
even elevated instability depicted in the GFS and ECMWF.

Temperatures through the long term are forecast to be well below
normal, as would be expected in a northwest flow regime. Highs are
forecast to trend down from the upper 60s/lower 70s on Tuesday into
the lower/middle 60s by Friday and next weekend. Lows are forecast
to trend down from the 45 to 50 degree range Tuesday night into the
lower/middle 40s by late week. Some guidance even hints at the
potential for lows in the 30s across some of our northern counties
next weekend, which would need to be monitored for frost potential
if that were to pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A line of thunderstorms will impact KCGI and KPAH from roughly
19-22z this afternoon. Could see brief MVFR/IFR cigs, reduced
visibilities to low MVFR or IFR at times as well as strong
variable gusts. Thunder could make it as far north as KEVV/KOWB
this afternoon.

Further north, a cold front is working its way through
southern Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and southwest Indiana where
winds have become northwesterly at KMVN. The wind shift should
make it to KEVV/KOWB between 18 and 20z. Convection will be clear
of all terminals by 23z, when all terminals should become VFR with
light northwesterly winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1114 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041615-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1114 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A line strong to severe storms with the potential to produce
damaging winds and large hail will move across southern portions
of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and southern
portions of western Kentucky this afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning can also be expected with any thunderstorms
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast mainly over southeast
Missouri late Monday afternoon and then throughout the region
Monday night. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
over southeast Missouri late Monday afternoon into the early
evening. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, but some hail
will also be possible. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall and
lightning will be the primary concerns Monday night.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms over the Evansville Tri
State Wednesday afternoon. Brief heavy rain and lightning would
be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon across southern
portions of southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and
southern portions of western Kentucky.

DWS/RJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARSTON                 36.52N 89.61W
05/03/2020                   NEW MADRID         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGE THE CITY HALL BUILDING. HOMES
            WITH ROOF DAMAGE. SEVERAL TREES AND POWER
            LINES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE HICKMAN           36.57N 89.16W
05/03/2020  M47 MPH          FULTON             KY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION HCKM HICKMAN 2 E.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST PRAIRIE            36.78N 89.38W
05/03/2020                   MISSISSIPPI        MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN/AROUND EAST PRAIRIE.
            (RADAR TIME ESTIMATE).

&&

ATL

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