River Flood Warning 16, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
559 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The line of thunderstorms is encountering more stable air as it
shifts eastward across the region. As a result, SPC has shifted
the axis of slight risk for severe to the south and east, mainly
along/south of the Tn border. Nevertheless, the wind shear is
very strong, and small segments of the line may still present a
marginal risk for severe wind gusts.

With an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall expected with the
line's main pass, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. The
rain will be falling on well saturated grounds, although this
impact too becomes less the farther east the line progresses. As
a result, and after collaboration with LMK and OHX, our far
southeastern 3 counties, excluded from the FFA, will remain so.

Gradient winds gusting to 45 mph along/ahead of the line of
storms should translate eastward with time today. After fropa, the
winds shift to the northwest and begin a diminishing trend. As a
result, we anticipate an early cancellation of the Advisory,
particularly in the west. However, with the surface Low deepening
upon its lift northeastward across the FA late this PM, we think a
continuation of the Advisory thru those hours is warranted for
now. And there is some concern that deepening may produce a little
higher gust potential, mainly in the east.

There is a minimal chance for change-over pcpn, before ending, in
portions of our farthest northwest counties. However, the mean
moisture really drops off as this occurs, so little to no impact
is anticipated. This has been a pretty consistent signal the past
several nights.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The primary forecast concern in the long term is the potential for
precipitation in three separate episodes. The first occurs over
mainly southern and eastern sections of the area Monday night into
Tuesday. The second arrives with a chance of thunder late Tuesday
night and Wednesday. The final chance arrives late Thursday night and
Friday, possibly in the form of a wintry mix. Forecast confidence is
about average with some improvement in agreement between model
solutions, but some differences that still need to be ironed out.

The upper flow pattern through much of the week will be dominated by
west southwesterly flow, with a brief period of west northwest flow
possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. Ripples of energy
traversing the active southwest flow pattern will provide periodic
chances for precipitation through the week. The first chance arrives
Monday night into Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves from the
Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. A
split flow pattern will be in place during this period, and the best
moisture will remain confined to the southern stream, which should
keep the best chance of precipitation over the southeastern U.S. The
initialized NBM forecast precipitation probabilities appeared to be
overdone. However, it is possible that some light rain showers may
make it as far north as our forecast area late Monday night and
Tuesday, especially into western Kentucky. Thus, our forecast
reflects a rather sharp gradient from lower chances across our
northwestern counties to higher chances in western Kentucky.

By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the southern stream lifts northward
and appears to phase with the northern stream, thus bringing better
moisture influx and higher rain chances to the entire forecast area.
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the central
Plains Tuesday night, then stream northeast towards the Great Lakes
by Wednesday evening. Increasing moisture and forcing for vertical
ascent ahead of the front will result in a good chance of showers by
late Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday as the front moves
through. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a fair amount of instability
will be present late Tuesday night and Wednesday, and some of that
may even be surface based on Wednesday. With moderate deep layer
shear also forecast, will need to keep an eye on at least some
potential for severe thunderstorms during the day Wednesday, but
it's too soon to say anything with any amount of confidence at this
time.

Even though the initialized NBM forecast keeps precipitation chances
non stop through the entire week, deterministic GFS/ECMWF/CMC model
runs all suggest a dry period from Wednesday night through much of
Thursday night as high pressure builds in and the upper flow pattern
temporarily becomes west northwesterly. Our forecast adjustments
reflect the preferred dry forecast during this time frame.

By late Thursday night and Friday, another low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the central Plains in response to upper
level energy entering the Rockies. This low is forecast to move
northeast towards the Great Lakes region by Saturday. The approach
and passage of the low and its attendant frontal system will result
in the potential for precipitation as early as Thursday night and
continuing into the first half of the weekend. Thermal profiles are
cold enough to support the potential for mixed precipitation late
Thursday night into Friday morning, then again late Friday night
into Saturday morning depending on how quickly the front makes
passage. Will need to keep an eye on this time period, especially
early Friday morning, for a possible light accumulation of wintry
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 559 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Low pressure and its associated frontal system will continue to
encourage waves of showers and thunderstorms across the region
through at least early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will prevail, but
temporary restrictions to IFR are expected. A trend towards more
scattered showers is expected by afternoon, followed by a return
to dry conditions by evening. MVFR ceilings should last through
the night. South winds ahead of the front will continue to shift
to the west and northwest with frontal passage. The strongest
winds are expected across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana
this morning, with gusts in excess of 30 knots. Winds should
gradually diminish from west to east tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KYZ001>016-
     018>020.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

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