Flash Flood Warning 92, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Been dealing with convection across parts of the area from the get-
go today. A weak surface front across the area coupled with a
shortwave embedded in a deep 500 mb trough moving through the
region, is aiding in scattered thunderstorm development, which will
continue for the rest of the afternoon. We will see coverage dwindle
after early this evening with dry conditions by later tonight.

Low level moisture will be slow to exit the area, so cloudy to
mostly cloudy skies expected for much of the evening. Expecting
moisture/clouds to gradually scatter out a bit by Tuesday morning
from west to east. However, moisture may linger on Tuesday afternoon
across parts of southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana and west
Kentucky, which may prompt a few isolated showers. Will leave PoPs
below mentionable right now (<15%) due to expected coverage and low
confidence of occurence.

Surface high pressure will slide southeast during the day on Tuesday
and become centered over central Illinois by 12Z Wednesday. As this
occurs, cooler and drier air will filter into the area. This cooler
airmass will be in place across the entire region for a few days,
giving us a brief respite from the warm and humid weather. 850mb
temperatures will drop into the 9-12C range which will definitely
help to bring us a taste of fall weather, especially at night, when
we expect lows Tuesday and Wednesday night to fall into the mid to
upper 50s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

The extended period begins with a retreating trough in the Midwest
and a ridge in the Western Plains, maintaining northwesterly flow
aloft for the Quad State. A surface high in Michigan will continue
northeasterly flow for Southwest Indiana and Western Kentucky. West
of the Mississippi, far enough away from the high, surface flow will
begin to turn southerly. A small-scale disturbance will make for a
rainy Thursday night for western/central Missouri; however, as it
approaches the Quad State region, the drier environment will shut
down much of the convection. At this time, the forecast continues
with the slight chance PoPs Friday morning for Southeast Missouri.

Later in the day Friday, the high pressure in Michigan drifts
further east bringing a more southerly flow to the rest of the Quad
State. Dew points will trend upwards as Gulf moisture becomes more
prominent. The weekend will have a couple more upper-level
disturbances reach the Quad State in the northwesterly flow. The
first late Friday into Saturday has slight chance PoPs across the
area. Sunday and Monday, the storm track shifts slightly northeast
increasing chances for Southwest Indiana and Western Kentucky.

As the trough retreats and 500-mb heights increase late in the week,
temperatures and dew points will each trend up a few degrees each
day. Highs in the lower 80s Thursday will reach around 90 by Sunday.
Lows and dew points will trend from the lower 60s to the lower 70s
over the same period. Average temperatures for early August are near
90 for highs and upper 60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

We will see scattered convection continuing for the rest of the
afternoon, before dissipating this evening. Heavy rainfall will
reduce vsbys and cigs down to at least MVFR but brief IFR
conditions or lower are certainly possible. There is a fairly
decent signal for some lower MVFR or maybe IFR cigs to develop
across portions of the region overnight, which may linger into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...ATL
AVIATION...CW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
303 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
303 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue for the rest of the
afternoon and into the early evening hours across the entire
area. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary
hazards. Small hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph are possible with
the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
Lightning and heavy rain are the primary hazards that can be
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

ILZ076>078-031845-
Edwards IL-Wabash IL-Wayne IL-
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WAYNE...WABASH AND
EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms from Mount Erie to Wayne City moving east at 30 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms as they track
into Edwards and Wabash counties.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Carmel, Fairfield, Albion, Grayville, Lancaster, West Salem,
Allendale, Jeffersonville, Bellmont, Bone Gap, Keensburg, Browns,
Mount Erie and Golden Gate.

LAT...LON 3859 8815 3857 8815 3857 8768 3846 8776
      3845 8775 3836 8780 3834 8783 3827 8785
      3831 8787 3827 8791 3828 8792 3829 8791
      3830 8793 3824 8796 3826 8798 3826 8846
      3860 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 266DEG 27KT 3852 8822

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
308 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

INZ081-087-032100-
Warrick IN-Gibson IN-
308 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WARRICK AND
SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 307 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Branch, moving east southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chandler, Fort Branch, Haubstadt, Lynnville, Elberfeld, Somerville
and Mackey.

LAT...LON 3826 8732 3825 8732 3824 8730 3823 8730
      3823 8725 3821 8719 3801 8741 3809 8747
      3816 8747 3817 8754 3822 8759 3831 8747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 282DEG 21KT 3824 8750

16