Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Pattern remains essentially stagnant, with meandering mid/upper
low situated over the mid MS River Valley, and very moist and
unstable air in place over the lower OH Valley. PWATs continue to
hover up close to 2 inches or so, extremely high for even this
time of year. Unfortunately, this leaves us looking to more of
the same, with additional rounds of thunderstorms with torrential
downpours likely at many locations along the MS River Valley
tonight into Wednesday. the flow around the upper low will become
more nwly with time, and should support most activity moving sse
down the river valley. One will likely impact the region late
this afternoon and into the evening, evolving from just south the
St Louis metro area. Another is expected is congeal later tonight
into Wed morning, possibly a bit farther west than the first.
Consequently, will continue the ongoing flash flood watch tonight.
Decided to go ahead and extent it through tomorrow at this point,
with much of the of the region in marginal to slight risk on the
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rain Outlook. Once again, if we manage to get
some decent heating Wed during the day, we cannot rule out an
isolated damaging wind gust here and there. Overall, severe risk
looks to be on the low side, esp compared to the heavy rain
potential.

Eventually, as we head into Wed night/Thu time frame, upper level
ridging should begin to build in from the west. This would lessen
the shower/thunderstorm coverage, even during the daylight hours.
Hot and humid conditions will remain, however, with highs up near
90 and dew points in the lower half of the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

There is fairly good confidence on a less active and seasonably warm
pattern through the extended.

Surface high pressure will nudge southward into our cwa late this
week. With a northeast surface flow in place, somewhat drier air
will work into the region. This will result in limited PoP chances,
and possibly completely dry conditions on Friday and Saturday.

There is some model variability later in the weekend and early next
week with regards to how far north the deeper moisture associated
with a weak upper low over the Gulf Coast states ends up making it.
The best dynamics and thus majority of precipitation is expected to
remain south of our area. However, there is enough of a signal to
continue with the low chance PoPs Sunday through Tuesday.

With some influence from the upper ridge axis situated to our west,
temperatures look to remain near early July normals, with highs
around 90/lower 90s and lows around 70. Humidity levels will remain
fairly uncomfortable with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70, but
this won't be as oppressive compared to the current airmass in
place. Heat index values look to top out in the mid 90s most days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Expect occasional showers and thunderstorms to become more
widespread as the afternoon progresses, especially across
southern IL. Local MVFR to IFR conditions within storms, along
with variable gusty winds up to 30 kts. Tonight, the chance of
showers and storms will continue. A few strong storms possible
Mainly VFR, but local MVFR/IFR with convection again. Winds will
be variable and mostly light, though gusty with storms.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-
     110>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
349 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-012100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
349 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of the region through
tonight. Refer to the Watch product for details.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms through tonight.
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be the
primary storm hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a continued chance for thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday. Isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out, but the main
storm hazards should come with lightning and torrential
downpours.

Isolated storms are in the forecast Friday on into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Please report
any observed flooding and/or heavy rainfall amounts.

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