Wind Advisory 1, NWS Norman, OK

685 
WWUS74 KOUN 012135
NPWOUN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
335 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020

OKZ008-012-013-018>020-026-012245-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200102T0000Z/
Kay-Garfield-Noble-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Ponca City, Blackwell, Enid, Perry, 
Kingfisher, Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Chandler, 
Stroud, Prague, Meeker, Davenport, and Wellston
335 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Norman OK
340 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020

The short term is expected to be quiet albeit increasingly breezy.
Noteworthy features on water vapor channel imagery now include
dry/subsident signature along the Kansas border associated with
positively tilted trough, and closed midlevel low centered over
Baja California. Downstream of the Baja low is a broad/fast
southern stream and associated high level moisture plume bringing
cirrus to our southernmost counties early this morning.

Falling midlevel heights and strengthening cross barrier flow
across the Rockies will force lee cyclogenesis today and tighten
our MSLP gradient. As mixing commences, wind gusts will too. Gusts
up to 40-45 mph are possible, especially in north-central Oklahoma
where we will issue a Wind Advisory. If confidence increases, a
slightly southwestward expansion of the advisory into the OKC area
may be needed later today. Wind gusts will diminish as mixing
subsides late in the day although sustained speeds may still stay
a little elevated overnight given the gradient.

The strengthening southwesterly low-level flow and advection of
plume of downsloped/warmed air, along with clear skies should push
us to around 10 degrees above normal today.

Given the wind and low RH, elevated fire weather thresholds could
be briefly reached across portions of the area, mainly west-
central and southwest Oklahoma. Despite dormant fuels, recent
rains have ERC values in the 25-50th percentile, and this should
temper significant spread potential. Nevertheless, an increase in
initial attack fire activity is possible this afternoon.

Increasing ascent from approaching trough will cause clouds to
increase across the entire area, but deep moisture will remain
east of us, and so should the rain showers. Showers could come
close to our far southeastern counties though.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2020

As the main upper trough amplifies and starts moving across the
area late Thursday, meager moisture might be enough for some
sprinkles with non-measurable amounts or light rain with up to a
few hundredths. This would be most likely across roughly the
northeast half of the forecast area Thursday night into early
Friday morning.

There is a decent spread in temperatures among guidance, but this
doesn't appear to be character of post-frontal air mass. Rather,
it seems to be that the colder guidance is showing thicker low-
level stratus and some drizzle/wet bulb cooling, which we're not
convinced of. This can be a bias of NAM and NAM-related guidance.
Therefore, we accepted a model blend for temperatures Thursday
into Friday. We then tightened the southwest-northeast temperature
gradient on Saturday, as residual chilly air may linger in eastern
Oklahoma while simultaneously downsloping/warming occurs across
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. There could be a ~20F
gradient in high temperatures. Above normal temperatures will
continue into Sunday.

Next week, the progressive upper flow pattern continues and medium
range guidance shows a trough of some character moving through,
but there are run-to-run inconsistencies with timing/amplitude.
Either way, the opportunity for substantial moisture return seems
limited so significant precipitation is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southerly winds will increase quickly after 12Z Wednesday morning.
Wind shear of 30 kts is anticipated at PNC from about 12z
through 21z. Wind shear for OKC/OUN may be possible briefly after
12Z, but is just at/under the threshold for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  41  55  36 /   0   0  10  20
Hobart OK         61  36  56  33 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  44  61  38 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           60  26  51  27 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     59  36  54  32 /   0   0  20  20
Durant OK         57  44  63  38 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...BRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

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