Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
239 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Storms are ongoing across northwestern Oklahoma, with the main bulk
of the storm system entering the area from southwest Kansas in the
next couple hours. Isentropic lift, in conjunction with the mid-
level warm air advection and moisture advection through the region,
will continue to be the catalyst for these storms. In the upper
levels, the shortwave trough moving through the region during the
overnight hours is enhancing the severe storm potential, in
particular for the storms that have developed ahead of the main
complex. Main concerns in the large complex of storms entering the
area will be heavy rains and wind, while for the isolated storms
ahead of the complex large hail will be an additional concern.

Behind these storms another pleasant day is expected, with below
average temperatures continuing for Wednesday afternoon. For
Wednesday evening, a similar kind of setup is expected, with storms
developing due to low and mid level moisture and warm air advection,
as well as isentropic lift resulting in storms. The lack of upper
level support with a shortwave trough will limit any severe
potential with these storms Wednesday evening. With the continued
eastward movement of the upper level ridge, the location for the
development and impacts of the precipitation will be further east
and will likely impacts portions of north central and eastern
Oklahoma.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Showers and storms will exit the area to the east through Thursday
morning and early afternoon. The upper level ridge will establish
itself further east, which will result in warmer, seasonably average
temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period. Precipitation
chances will be minimal through most of the weekend into early next
week, with only some slight chances for precipitation in northern
Oklahoma due to any terrain convection that develops and moves along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Scattered to numerous TSRA still likely over mainly central and
northern Oklahoma terminals and mainly from 08Z to 13Z. This will
be attributed to elevated warm advection regime, with model
trends shifting initation and progression farther east with time.
Will leave mention of TSRA in KWWR/KPNC along with KOKC/KOUN with
MVFR restrictions main impact. Most if not all of rain should
shift south and east of terminals by 15Z. VFR expected
thereafter with mainly light southeast to east wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  70  91  75 /  40  30  20  10
Hobart OK         90  72  97  75 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  73  98  77 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           88  67  96  72 /  10  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     82  67  87  72 /  60  30  30  20
Durant OK         88  71  96  75 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
214 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-060715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
214 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
northwestern and central Oklahoma and continue to move southeast
across much of the area overnight. A few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible. Strong wind gusts will be the
main threat, along with heavy rains, frequent lightning, and also
the possibility for marginally severe hail as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Wednesday across parts of the
area. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.
Thunderstorms chances will continue Wednesday night into Thursday
mainly across central into eastern Oklahoma. Storm chances
continue into the weekend, mainly across northern and western
Oklahoma. Although a strong to severe storm may be possible,
organized, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
230 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

OKZ005>007-050800-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-Grant OK-
230 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Alfalfa...eastern Woods and
western Grant Counties Until 300 AM CDT...

AT 229 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Amorita to 3 miles west of Waynoka, moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9769 3665 9799 3659 9809 3659 9810
      3658 9810 3646 9832 3653 9896 3660 9896
      3660 9897 3663 9900 3700 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 271DEG 30KT 3692 9833 3658 9893

BRB

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