Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Radar starting to show a few echos across western north Texas from
the storm complex currently across the Texas Panhandle. Latest
HRRR CAMs showing the potential for later development into
southwest Oklahoma as well. As a result, added 20 percent POPs to
the grids for isolated TSRA across our far southwest CWA until 3
AM. Although the environment is strongly unstable (2000 J/jg
MUCAPE) with weak shear, it also appears to be strongly capped, so
don't expect any deep convection from from firing up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Easterly surface winds will advect slightly drier air from the
east tonight, which will likely offset the weak waa that tries to
develop overnight. Expect that waa may lead to some lower level
cloud development, but drier air at the surface along with some
capping in place should preclude any precip from developing
overnight. On caveat may be what the GFS is doing with developing
convection to our west across the higher terrain. This may make a
run at southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas late this
evening, but for now will leave tonight period dry.

For Wednesday, other than perhaps a bit more cloud cover expect
another dry and mild day, much like we have seen that last few
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

Thunderstorms that develop across the eastern High Plains of
Texas may approach southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north
Texas Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Scattered showers/storms
may develop farther to the east Thursday morning with isentropic
ascent/warm air advection.

A longwave trough will persist across the western United States
through the upcoming weekend. Embedded shortwave troughs are
progged to eject into the Plains with an attendant increase in
synoptic-scale ascent. At the surface, a moist and conditionally
unstable airmass will remain over Oklahoma and western north Texas
with an oscillating dryline to the west (from the Caprock to near
the 100th meridian).

These aforementioned features will result in a daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms (some severe) Thursday through Saturday.
The timing of these waves (and therefore a greater risk of severe
weather) is somewhat uncertain. In addition, the Southern Plains
will be on the southern periphery of the greatest ascent and
effective bulk shear. Nevertheless, there will likely be
thunderstorms somewhere in the area everyday (the majority will
remain dry on a given day).

By Sunday, the longwave trough may finally eject into the Plains
with an attendant increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall/flooding may become a hazard during this period.
The trough is forecast to close-off and may persist somewhere in
the Southern Plains into early next week. This will result in a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue May 19 2020

East wind will perists overnight and turn southeast in western
Oklahoma Wednesday. Ceilings near the MVFR/VFR limit are epected
to form or move into southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas early Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to arrive from the west into western Oklahoma and

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  79  63  78 /   0   0  20  30
Hobart OK         58  82  64  85 /  20   0  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  63  83  66  87 /  20   0  30  30
Gage OK           55  82  61  85 /   0   0  30  30
Ponca City OK     53  79  61  78 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK         60  80  64  82 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1153 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be the chance for thunderstorms over the area from
Wednesday night through Monday. There will be the potential for
strong to severe storms through this period. There is a slight
risk for severe storms across northwest Oklahoma on Thursday and
Thursday night, and the potential areas for severe storms Friday
through Monday will become more defined later in the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

OKZ033-TXZ083-200600-
Harmon OK-Hardeman TX-
1229 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Harmon and
northwestern Hardeman Counties Until 100 AM CDT...

AT 1224 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Kirkland Texas, moving northeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3464 10000 3472 9987 3439 9984 3440 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 242DEG 15KT 3448 10011

JP