Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

CAMs show a narrow area of scattered convection forming along and
near a mid level boundary (apparent at 700 mb) this afternoon into
early evening. Storms should be mainly elevated with just enough
instability to support thunder.

A lead shortwave will approach the area late tomorrow ahead of a
deeper upper level low. Models have all trended toward a more
progressive solution over the last few days, with the main wave
catching up to the lead wave as it enters our area.

As mentioned by the previous forecaster, latest indications show
moisture being slow to return, limiting the potential for convection
based on warm air advection alone on Tuesday until later in the
evening. Expect most of the activity to lag westward where there is
more upper level support.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday night with the arrival of
an upper level low and continued warm air advection. As this system
approaches, a low level jet is expected to ramp up, especially over
central to southeast Oklahoma. With ample instability, storms are
likely to intensify overnight under the influence of the low level
jet, resulting in the possibility of large hail. CIPS analog guidance
suggests some significant hail (>2") may be possible, especially
near the Red River. Most of this activity should be elevated.

As the front arrives Wednesday morning, we may see a second round of
thunderstorms. Right now it looks like most of this activity will
remain elevated again as surface instability struggles under
lingering abundant cloud cover. Parts of southern and southeastern
Oklahoma will have a greater chance for surface based convection in
the vicinity of the dryline.

Clear skies and a return to southwest to southerly surface flow will
allow somewhat warmer temperatures on Thursday in the midst of an
otherwise seasonable week.

Models show the next system with associated rain chances arriving
Thursday night into Friday.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Isolated showers and storms will be possible throughout the
afternoon into early this evening mainly near WWR, but could near
CSM and OKC/OUN. For now, have only included VCTS for WWR but this
will be watched closely for amendments. Otherwise, expect mid to
high cloud cover the first half of the forecast period. Wind
directions will be slightly different for most of the terminals
but will generally remain below 15 kt. Wind directions will become
easterly to southeasterly by Tue morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  77  57  70 /  20  10  80  80
Hobart OK         51  77  57  72 /   0  20  80  60
Wichita Falls TX  54  78  61  77 /   0  10  70  50
Gage OK           48  75  51  69 /  30  40  80  60
Ponca City OK     48  75  54  67 /   0  10  60  90
Durant OK         54  78  59  74 /  10  10  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1256 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
northern half of Oklahoma this afternoon and this evening.
Although severe storms are not anticipated, a few strong storms
capable of producing small hail and gusty winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
A storm system will move toward the area on Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west of Oklahoma
across southeast Colorado into western Kansas and the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles Tuesday afternoon. These storms will then move
east and southeast into western Oklahoma Tuesday evening and
central Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe with the main threat being
large hail.

The chance for severe storms will continue through the day
Wednesday as the storm system moves across the southern Plains.

Thunderstorms are also possible Friday. The chance of severe
weather with this activity looks to be low.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
411 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

OKZ019-202145-
Logan OK-
411 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Logan County Until 445
PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Guthrie, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3594 9722 3580 9726 3572 9739 3573 9741
      3588 9764 3603 9754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 302DEG 17KT 3591 9750

MAD

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