Severe Thunderstorm Warning 678, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Cold front continues to move slowly south/southeast through
southern Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon. This boundary
will act as a focus for a few storms late this afternoon across
mainly southeast Oklahoma. Expect much of the remainder of the area
to remain dry late today and this evening.

Meanwhile, a minor shortwave moving through southern Colorado this
afternoon will help initiate convection across the high plains this
afternoon. This activity will then move east and southeast across
the panhandles toward western Oklahoma. Anticipate this moving into
western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late evening and moving
across mainly southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas late
tonight. A few strong, possibly severe storms may still occur, but
an overall weakening trend in the activity is expected as it moves
out of the panhandles into our area.

Could see some lingering shower/storms Sunday morning across parts
of the area, but expect most areas will remain dry during the day
Sunday. Slightly cooler, or less hot conditions, expected as well
Sunday. This will preclude the need for heat advisory beyond today,
but still expect index values above 100 degrees along the Red river
Sunday afternoon. May see some late afternoon storms develop near the
Red river valley with better chances Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Precipitation chances will continue to increase Sunday night into
early next week, with widespread chances of heavy rain. Moisture
advection will continue into the area, with precipitable water
values reaching widespread values >2 inches across most of the
region on Tuesday. Areas of precipitation initially will be focused
more along surface boundaries that develop. In the upper levels,
embedded shortwaves will assist in precipitation development through
Monday while a upper level trough will begin moving towards the
region.

Models diverge significantly on the behavior of the upper level
trough and low cyclone as it approaches. For the ECMWF, the upper
level lows stalls in New Mexico, and then remains there as cyclone
fills and dissipates over the next few days, which would result in
widespread, weaker precipitation chances in the area through next
weekend. The GFS has the upper level low much more progressive,
resulting in ample upper level support for widespread heavy
precipitation across western north Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday, as
well as pleasant weather for the remainder of the week with lower
moisture, cooler temperatures, and very low precipitation
chances. For now, some slight precipitation chances have been
included through late next week, however a close eye will need to
be on this upper level trough behavior as we get closer to
Tuesday.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandles should steadily weaken as
they continue eastward but are likely to impact WWR, CSM, and
probably LAW, and SPS. The tendency should be the for strongest
convection to be on its southern flank, likely avoiding OKC and
OUN. Some MVF stratus may occur during the early morning, although
details will depend on evolution of convection and thus
spatiotemporal confidence is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  70  91  73 /  20  50  20  30
Hobart OK         93  69  96  73 /  10  80  10  20
Wichita Falls TX 102  72 100  77 /  10  60  20  20
Gage OK           82  63  93  66 /  20  40  10  20
Ponca City OK     81  66  85  69 /  30  20  10  40
Durant OK        101  74  97  75 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
759 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-310100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
759 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will move into western and southwestern Oklahoma,
and portions of north Texas later tonight. A few thunderstorms
will also be possible across southeastern Oklahoma through this
evening. Thunderstorms will remain possible overnight into early
Sunday. Some of the storms could become strong to severe with hail
up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across at least
portions of the area through Thursday with the highest chances on
Monday and Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
next week. There is a Marginal risk across much of Oklahoma
Sunday. On Monday, there is a Slight risk across central and
southern Oklahoma, and portions of western north Texas. In
addition to the potential for strong to severe storms, heavy rain
could become an increasing concern early next week, especially
across portions of central and southern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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