Severe Thunderstorm Warning 643, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
632 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Isolate showers and thunderstorms will persist across northern
reaches of Oklahoma this afternoon in the hot and very humid
airmass. Aloft, a weak mid-level wave will approach KS and
northern Oklahoma later today and provide more support for
showers/storms this evening and overnight. A dry line over the
western panhandles this afternoon will initiate more storms as it
moves east into the central panhandles by early evening. Some of
these storms are expected to move into western and northern
Oklahoma this evening and continue across at least the north into
early Tuesday. By this time, the upper trough will move across
northern Oklahoma and keep scattered showers and clouds around
east of I-35 into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The upper-level ridge over the desert Southwest will remain the
main feature affecting our weather through the period. After the
upper-level wave from tonight/tomorrow moves off to the southeast,
there is little in the way of disturbances in the flow until at
least the weekend. Around that time, the upper high shifts north
into Utah and vicinity, altering the northwest flow to more
northerly flow across the southern Plains. This will, assuming it
happens, help bring somewhat cooler air into the region this
weekend. It may also bring more widespread chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Thunderstorms have erupted near a weak surface boundary near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border, aided by an upper-level wave. As the wave
departs to the southeast, and nighttime cooling commences, the
storms are expected to diminish. However, there is great
uncertainty regarding whether or not (and where) storms may form
on surface outflow boundaries during the night...and into Tuesday
morning. We have included VCTS for KWWR and KPNC this evening, as
storms should be near those airports for another couple of hours
or so, but otherwise have not mentioned TS because of the low
probability. Otherwise, expect mainly south winds and VFR
conditions.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         75  99  75 100 /  30  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           67  98  71 101 /  50  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     73  94  73  93 /  50  30  20  20
Durant OK         77  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
804 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-120115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
804 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe storms will be possible through late evening
across portions of western, central, and northern Oklahoma. There
is a risk for severe storms mainly north of a line from Mangum to
El Reno and Edmond, to near Stroud Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts,
hail, and heavy rain that could lead to flooding are the main
concerns.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of
the area into early Tuesday but the potential for severe storms
will diminish late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the area Tuesday morning. Low storm chances will continue for
parts of Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and night.

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