Severe Thunderstorm Warning 596, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Showers/thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwestern OK
and western north TX this afternoon and evening a mid-level trough
and surface boundary. Latest radar imagery shows a few echoes with
a few cloud flashes already developing over Beckham County in
western OK and tracking quickly east-southeastward at about 40
mph. With a moderately unstable atmosphere in place, little to no
CIN, storms may become severe later this afternoon and evening.
Large hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall are possible with any storms that develop. A few
thunderstorms are also possible this evening over northern
Oklahoma. Precipitation appears likely, generally south of I-40,
through at least 10PM with chances diminishing after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

In the wake of Friday's storm system, we should see a break from
rain this weekend with below normal temperatures.

Models (both deterministic and ensemble) are trending further west
with their possible MCS Sunday night into Monday, affecting mainly
the panhandles and parts of western Oklahoma into north Texas.
Latest NBM guidance seems to represent this fairly well.

The most recent WPC cluster analysis is coming in weaker and slower
with the building of the upper level ridge next week. This is
consistent with deterministic models which keep us in an active
northwest flow pattern through much of next week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

As of 18Z, a prefrontal trough axis appears to be located from
near Bristow to OKC to Elk City, with a cold front situated over
NW Oklahoma. Winds have already shifted to the northwest for
WWR/PNC and winds are forecast to shift northwesterly for all
other TAF sites by evening. Showers/thunderstorms have already
developed from Holdenville to Ada, though none have been severe so
far. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop near KLAW and KSPS
sites this afternoon after 21Z. There is some uncertainty as to
the placement and duration of precipitation. However, model
guidance suggests precipitation may linger over this area until
the early morning hours on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  82  66  84 /  40  30   0   0
Hobart OK         69  87  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  88  66  89 /  60  10   0   0
Gage OK           64  85  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  81  64  83 /  60  40   0   0
Durant OK         73  88  68  89 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1205 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon and
tonight (mainly after 3pm) across portions of central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas. The main threats will
be damaging winds up to 65 mph, hail to the size of ping pong
balls, and locally heavy rainfall. Showers and storms could linger
across parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas into early
Friday morning.

A secondary area of storms will be possible across portions of
northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. A marginal risk is
in place for these storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will still be affecting the area Friday morning and
persist through Friday afternoon. Instability will be lower, so
the potential of severe weather is low.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Sunday night through Monday
night and then again on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and
follow our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
418 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

OKZ034-035-302145-
Kiowa OK-Greer OK-
418 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Kiowa and east
central Greer Counties Until 445 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lone Wolf,
moving southeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3507 9935 3501 9898 3479 9910 3481 9915
      3485 9915 3485 9917 3486 9917 3486 9919
      3484 9920 3484 9922 3493 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 294DEG 22KT 3497 9930

WR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 WNW VERNON            34.20N 99.45W
07/30/2020                   WILBARGER          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI BLOWN OVER NEAR THE HARDEMAN/WILBARGER COUNTY LINE

&&

BTHOREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
500 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

OKZ037-302215-
Tillman OK-
500 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman County Until
515 PM CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT, an outlow from a thunderstorm was located near
Davidson, moving northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3428 9919 3436 9901 3429 9894 3421 9907
      3421 9910 3420 9912 3421 9913 3422 9913
      3421 9915 3426 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 245DEG 23KT 3427 9913

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
503 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

OKZ032-043-302230-
Coal OK-Hughes OK-
503 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Coal and
southeastern Hughes Counties Until 530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Ashland, moving northeast at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Stuart.

LAT...LON 3463 9626 3479 9637 3491 9609 3468 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 245DEG 27KT 3479 9618

WR