Severe Thunderstorm Warning 504, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Elevated convection has developed over much of central Kansas,
extending in a more isolated fashion into south-central Kansas.
These showers and storms may affect parts of north-central into
eastern Oklahoma later this morning. The risk of severe storms
is low this morning.

Heat and humidity will drive the heat indices into advisory levels
over much of our forecast area today. We have extended the Heat
Advisory for today to match the geographical area affected
tomorrow, based on the currently-forecast heat indices...and with
the assumption that our dewpoint temperature forecasts are, if
anything, too low.

In summary, there are low chances for showers/thunderstorms this
morning over our northeastern counties. Otherwise, expect hot and
humid conditions through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

With the center of the strong upper high over NM, the eastern part
of the southern plains are exposed this weekend to any features in
the southern part of the jet stream. A weak front is expected to
move into northern and possibly central Oklahoma Saturday afternoon.
The weak convergence and the very hot and humid air mass is the
reason for thunderstorm chances there later in the afternoon and
evening. There is a signal for a weak short-wave trough to move
through the northern part of the upper high late Sunday and early
Monday which will bring the next chance for thunderstorms. This is
basically the extent of rain chances from Saturday through the next
week. The main hazard Saturday will be the extreme heat and
humidity. It will likely be the hottest day of the year so far. A
heat advisory is in effect Saturday afternoon for north central,
central, and southwestern Oklahoma, Chickasaw Nation, and adjacent
parts of Choctaw Nation. Beyond the weekend the upper high drifts
slowly east into Arkansas with very hot conditions continuing in the
southern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

A cluster of strong thunderstorms over south-central Kansas will
likely expand south into north-central Oklahoma early this
morning. KPNC is the only TAF site in our forecast area in the
path of these storms. By midday, storms should be confined to
eastern Oklahoma, as they gradually dissipate. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions with mainly southerly winds.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  78 106  74 /  10   0  20  20
Hobart OK        103  78 109  75 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 101  78 107  76 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK          102  76 107  71 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     96  77 101  71 /  20  10  20  30
Durant OK         97  76 102  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111615-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-Noble-
Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-Beckham-
Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-Cleveland-
Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-
Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-
Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-Foard-Wilbarger-
Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1104 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall...
Thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts across central
Oklahoma will continue to move southward into southern Oklahoma
through early afternoon. Overall intensity should decrease but the
threat of strong winds will persist. Heavy rainfall could cause
localized flooding, especially in urban areas.

.Heat...
Heat index values of 100 to 105 are possible in far southern
Oklahoma and portions of north Texas today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Low thunderstorm chances return Saturday night north of Interstate
40 and east of U.S. 81. Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter size hail will be
possible Saturday night in north central Oklahoma.

.Heat...
A heat advisory is in effect throughout much of central and western
Oklahoma, apart from the northwest.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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