Severe Thunderstorm Warning 482, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Thunderstorms chances will exist this afternoon in southwestern
Oklahoma near a surface boundary moving slowly south/southwest.
This boundary will intersect areas of very high temperatures and
surface moisture by mid-afternoon. This evening thunderstorms are
expected to move southeast from southeastern CO across the
panhandles and may enter northwestern Oklahoma before dissipating
Sunday morning. A short-wave trough entering southern California
this afternoon may travel through the weak prevailing flow toward
the panhandles and northwestern OK by Sunday afternoon. This may
bring more thunderstorm coverage to west central and northwestern
Oklahoma Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

A shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles Sunday into early Monday.  This combined with
weak easterly flow should promote generous thunderstorm develop to
our west.  Some of the storms may move across mainly western
Oklahoma and western north Texas during the evening and overnight
hours. With the synoptic boundary south of the area on Monday, most
of area should remain dry into Tuesday.  However, with rather warm
and humid conditions, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, especially across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

A southerly wind will increase Wednesday in response to a system
moving across the northern Rockies and Plains.  A model or two also
has a weak system moving across the central Plains by late Wednesday
into Thursday. At this time, it appears any convection associated
with this feature will remain north of Oklahoma.

Models differ on how fast to build another mid and upper level ridge
over the southern and central Plains with the GFS faster.  This will
bring a return of very hot weather by the end of the week.  Heat
Advisories may be required.  The EC is slower which may allow a
better chance of rain, mainly across the eastern third/half of
Oklahoma during the late week/weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Light winds less than 12kts are expected except for a bit higher
gusts this afternoon in western OK. VFR conditions are expected,
but there is a chance for thunderstorms in northwestern OK
overnight and again Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  71  89  71 /  20   0  20  20
Hobart OK         97  72  92  71 /  20  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  97  74  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
Gage OK           94  69  88  68 /  10  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     90  70  89  71 /  10   0  10  10
Durant OK         93  73  91  72 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and
evening, mainly across parts of southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds and heavy downpours. Additional storms may
develop over the higher terrain of western Texas. This activity
may move into western Oklahoma and northern Texas during
the evening and overnight hours. A few strong storms are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Daily chances of thunderstorms will exist through Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated strong storms are possible with gusty
winds and heavy downpours.

.Heat...
Hot and muggy weather will continue. Take frequent breaks in the
shade and drink plenty of water if you will be outdoors. Very hot
weather will return by late week into next weekend, as an upper
ridge builds over the southern Plains.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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