Severe Thunderstorm Warning 459, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Lingering showers have ended across the region, and attention has
been shifted to later this afternoon and evening. Widespread high
CAPE values across southwestern Kansas (CAPE > 5000J/kg) will be the
focal point of developing storms later this afternoon. In the upper
levels, a shortwave trough moving through southwest Kansas and
northwestern Oklahoma will enhance any severe potential of storms
that develop. Northwesterly flow aloft will bring these storms that
develop into northwestern Oklahoma this evening. The main concern
with these storms will be the widespread wind threat with the linear
configuration of the line and the significant instability these
storms have to work with initially in northwestern Oklahoma. Modest
shear (Effective Shear ~30-35kts) will result in a chance for some
large and possibility significant hail up to 2", and while the
overall lower level shear is not significant (0-1km shear >10kts),
some attention will need to be paid to the western end of the
line, where enhanced rotation may develop that could lead to
larger sizes of hail and the possibility of a tornado.

As the storms enter further into Oklahoma, instability decreases,
thanks in part to the lingering showers and storms in the area.
The big uncertainty with these storms this evening will be the
rate of return of instability in central Oklahoma and if the
storms are able to maintain their intensity. As the storms
continue into the evening and the lower level jet intensity
increases, there may be an increase in precipitation within the
MCS and additional flooding concerns. The placement of the lower
level jet has varied between models and model runs, with some
models keeping the LLJ west of the impacted area and having little
influence tonight, and other (namely the NAM) putting the LLJ
through central Oklahoma. If the LLJ has a placement through
central Oklahoma and influences the storms, flooding concerns will
increase through the overnight hours.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Showers and storms will exit the area Monday morning and afternoon,
which should result in some instability recovery through the
afternoon. A cold front behind the showers will continue to move to
the south through Monday afternoon. Additional showers and
thunderstorm development is anticipated once this cold front
interacts with increasing instability, in particular across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday night into Tuesday. Damaging
winds and large hail are a concern, as well as increased risks in
flooding with the antecedent ground conditions and recent
rainfall.

The upper level northwesterly flow will continue through the middle
of next week, with possible chances of precipitation primarily in
northern Oklahoma. A more zonal flow appears to set in place later
in the week, with a strong southerly wind and slightly warmer
temperatures will begin moving into the area. Long range models
indicate a chance for a shortwave trough developing in the flow and
moving through the region over the next weekend with some
precipitation chances in northern Oklahoma, however the strength and
timing of the shortwave trough is still uncertain.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Line of thunderstorms currently pushing southeastward across
western and central Oklahoma over the next several hours,
impacting KOKC and KOUN, with impacts at KLAW and KPNC also
expected but a lower probability. Expect strong wind gusts in the
vicinity of these storms. Outside of thunderstorms, expect VFR
conditions tonight into tomorrow. Additional storms are possible
across tomorrow evening, most likely across southern Oklahoma
ahead of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  70  88  67 /  60  80  20  70
Hobart OK         95  72  93  68 /  20  60  20  60
Wichita Falls TX  95  73  96  71 /  40  20  20  60
Gage OK           94  65  90  64 /  10  70  20  40
Ponca City OK     92  68  88  66 /  20  60  30  40
Durant OK         89  72  92  71 /  70  70  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe storms will be possible across the area with an Enhanced
risk across portions of northern and central Oklahoma.

Location...
The Enhanced risk is generally the area north of I-40. A Slight
risk is the area north of a line from Altus and Duncan, to Sulphur
and Coalgate Oklahoma.

Timing...
Another round of severe storms will be possible across the area
early this evening into tonight.

Impacts...
Up to baseball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the
main concerns. There is also a low chance for a tornado, mainly
across portions of northwest Oklahoma.

Locally heavy rain will also be a concern.

Discussion...
Storms are expected to develop early this evening, initially
affecting portions of northern Oklahoma. The storms will then
likely develop into one or more lines that continue to move across
the area this evening and overnight. Severe storms will be
possible with large hail and strong wind gusts the main concerns
initially. Damaging winds are then expected to become even more of
a concern this evening with the transition to one or more lines
of storms.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
area should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...

Storms will be possible during the day Monday but higher chances
will be Monday evening and night. Strong to severe storms will be
possible once again with a Slight risk across much of the area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across at least
portions of the area through the rest of the week. Some strong to
severe storms could be possible. However, what occurs on one day
could be somewhat dependent on what occurred the previous day and
night and the impact on the airmass.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLOOD            5 NW MEERS              34.83N 98.63W
06/22/2020                   COMANCHE           OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT LEAST A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS HWY 115 DUE TO A
            NEARBY POND OVERFLOWING.

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
100 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

OKZ016-021-022-220645-
Washita OK-Beckham OK-Custer OK-
100 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Washita...
northeastern Beckham and southwestern Custer Counties Until 145 AM
CDT...

AT 1259 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Canute, moving
east at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Elk City, Clinton, Cordell, Burns Flat, Dill City, Canute, Bessie and
Foss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 9956 3551 9957 3549 9885 3521 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 277DEG 27KT 3539 9927

03

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