Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
156 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Thu May 7 2020

Mid level moisture advection has resulted in elevated showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms widely scattered over much of the area.
This activity is slowly making its way eastward and should be out of
most of the forecast area by mid to late afternoon. Amounts are
generally expected to be light.

Later this evening, an upper level low will approach kicking off
two rounds of severe storms. The first wave is expected to
initiate around 5pm along the dryline in the southern Texas
panhandle and move eastward through southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Most of these storms are expected to be fairly
isolated, but with the potential to produce very large hail.

The second round will start later (8-10pm) in northwest Oklahoma
along a cold front. These storms will be more numerous and
eventually consolidate into a line as they surge southeastward
overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards,
with an increasing flash flood risk as storms move further southeast.

Friday will be cool in the wake of the cold front with high
temperatures in the 60s. Expect north winds behind the front to
remain fairly gusty tonight and through most of tomorrow.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

Quickly dimininishing winds, combined with a much drier airmass
and clear skies, will allow for temperatures to drop off quickly
Friday evening. Lows Saturday morning will approach records at
some locations, with OKC and Wichita Falls appearing to have the
best shot out of our three climate sites as of now. Temperatures
will try to moderate some this weekend but continued troughing to
our north and east will send a cold front with a reinforcing shot
of cooler air towards our area by Sunday morning. Rain chances
will arrive on Monday as a shortwave interacts with the front
that will have stalled somewhere over our area. Went ahead and
undercut the blended guidance for highs again on Monday across
northern Oklahoma as it appears to be behind the trends on the raw
model guidance, which have consistently shown highs only in the
40s and 50s across much of northern Oklahoma. Did not go as cold
as raw deterministic guidance but future changes are possible as
confidence increases on the location of the front and
precipitation timing.

Rain and cooler temperatures will likely persist for much of the
area on Tuesday to the north of the stationary front. By Wednesday
the front will likely lift north of the area as upper ridging builds
in and troughing begins to develop to our west. This will likely
continue the chance for thunderstorms into the middle and end of
next week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

Gusty south winds will continue through the afternoon. A few
isolated severe storms may move into southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas after 22Z, though coverage is expected to be
too scattered to warrant mention in the TAFs at this point. More
numerous storms will form along a front in northwest Oklahoma
later this evening and make their way southeastward through the
night, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Gusty north
winds will fill in behind the front and continue into tomorrow.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  64  42  68 /  80   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  66  41  71 /  60   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  69  43  73 /  50   0   0   0
Gage OK           45  65  40  73 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  63  40  68 /  70   0   0   0
Durant OK         60  69  44  68 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
343 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
343 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Overnight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and
overnight across portions of central and southeastern Oklahoma.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the
remainder of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

The enhanced risk is roughly the area south and southwest of a
line from Watonga to Kingfisher to Shawnee to Daisy Oklahoma, and
east and northeast of a line from Watonga to Anadarko to Ardmore.

Thunderstorms may initially develop late this afternoon or early
evening across southwest Oklahoma and western sections of north
Texas. These storms will move southeast and be capable of
producing hail up to the size of baseballs and wind gusts of 60 to
80 mph.

More storms are expected to develop across northwest Oklahoma in
the early to mid evening hours. These storms will likely expand
to become a thunderstorm complex and move southeast across central
and southern Oklahoma. The main risk will be damaging wind gusts
of 60 to 80 mph, but hail up to golf ball size will also be
possible.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rain is also a possibility late tonight into early Friday
morning. Some urban and small stream flooding may occur over parts
of south-central and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of storms again from Monday through
Wednesday. The risk of severe storms will be low on Monday, then
begin to increase each day.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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