Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
312 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

As of 19Z, the prefrontal trough extended from Osage - Canadian -
Beckham counties with northwesterly winds behind the axis. The
cold front was located near the OK/KS border with temperatures in
the 60s behind the front. The front is expected to quickly
progress south across Oklahoma and western north Texas this
evening and overnight. The 19Z sounding shows a strong cap over
the OKC area, and is unlikely to break unless sufficient
ascent/cooling arrives. A tornado watch has been issued for
Seminole, Hughes, Pontotoc, and Coal counties until 10PM. Latest
trends indicate convective initiation will likely be
east/southeast of the OKC metro by 7PM. The primary hazards for
our CWA will be large hail and damaging winds, although, a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Northerly winds and strong cold air advection will keep
temperatures much cooler tomorrow - maximum temperatures will be
in the 70s and near 80 degrees (SW Oklahoma and western north TX).

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Surface high builds over the plains and provides for mild
conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. A surface cyclone develops on
Thursday in advance of a midlevel shortwave, though models
continue to show a considerable difference on the placement of
the low through 00Z Friday. Daytime high temperatures for Thursday
have been lowered as the trend is for the surface low to pass
south of the TX/OK border, placing most of our area on the cool
side. Chances for showers/thunderstorms return on Thursday and
again Sunday afternoon/evening.

Below average temperatures are still expected Friday through early
next week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

A period of post-frontal MVFR cigs will be possible at KPNC this
afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions expected to prevail. TSRA
will develop near a fast moving cold front late this afternoon and
we currently expect this convection to be east and south of
terminals. Gusty southwest winds will become north and northeast
as front moves by, with gusts 20 to 30 KT common.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  74  52  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  79  52  83 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           50  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         61  76  51  80 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1201 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today generally
east of a line from Ponca City to Oklahoma City and Duncan. Within
the slight risk area is an Enhanced Risk which covers parts of
northeast into southeast Oklahoma, including the cities of
Seminole, Holdenville, Coalgate, and Atoka.

The most likely time for severe storms today will be between 4 pm
and 11 pm. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold
front during the late afternoon hours across central and
northeast Oklahoma, then spread south through the evening as the
cold front advances southward.

The primary hazards are very large hail up to the size of
baseballs and damaging winds, but there is also some potential for
a tornado as well. The tornado risk will be highest in the
Enhanced Risk area through early evening.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are expected
across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Triple digit
heat will combine with a moderate wind and very low humidity to
elevate conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Storm chances return Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday into
early Friday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday
afternoon.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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