River Flood Warning 10, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

A strong upper-level wave over northern New Mexico will continue
its rapid east-northeast movement today. The circulation around
the associated surface low over eastern Colorado, then western
Kansas, will cause strong southwest winds across Oklahoma and
parts of north Texas today. The strongest winds will be over the
northwest half of Oklahoma, where we have expanded the existing
Wind Advisory for today.

Meanwhile, rain and thunderstorms will continue this morning and
early afternoon across our southeastern counties (by 7 am, when
this forecast begins, most of the storms should be near or east of
I-35). A Flood Watch issued earlier for a few of our southeast
counties, where the heaviest previous rainfall has occurred, still
appears to be appropriate.

Tonight, a cold front will sweep southeast across Oklahoma and
into north Texas. This will bring much cooler weather back into
the region. Subfreezing temperatures are expected in the far
northwest by Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

After a chilly start to the day, high temperatures on Friday will
be about 20 to 30 degrees (F) colder than today. On Saturday
morning, low temperatures will be near or below freezing across
nearly all our forecast area.

As warmer weather begins its return this weekend, rain chances
will also return Saturday night, as the warm/moist advection
joins forces with another upper-level wave. Severe weather is not
expected with this system.

Low chances of rain will be mainly restricted to the east for the
remainder of the forecast period, where moisture will be more
abundant. A general warming trend is expected early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

A few TSRA will be at or near TAF sites OKC, OUN, SPS early in the
period. Probabilities of rain/storms after about 15Z will be too
low to mention. Winds will increase quickly during the morning at
most sites, and will be quite strong by midday. Speeds will drop
off somewhat toward sunset, but then shift from southwest to
northwest as a strong cold front passes through the region. A few
low clouds will be possible toward sunrise over northern Oklahoma
in the cooler airmass well behind the front.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  38  48  29 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         73  36  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  43  53  33 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           70  28  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  34  47  26 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  48  56  35 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ004>012-014>018-021>023-033>036.

     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ043-047-048-051-
     052.

TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
415 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
415 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe storms today in eastern Oklahoma,
east of Holdenville to Madill. A Marginal Risk area extends west
to Ponca City, Oklahoma City, Duncan, and Henrietta Texas. Strong
to severe storms are expected this morning, and possibly into the
afternoon, in these areas. With relatively weak instability and
substantial vertical wind shear, the primary threat will be strong
winds within linear convective systems.

.Winds...
Southwest winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 50 mph are
likely across northwest Oklahoma today. Winds of 20 to 30 mph and
gusts around 40 are expected from southwest to north-central
Oklahoma today.

.Flooding...
Heavy rainfall is possible today over areas that have already
received substantial rain amounts. The greatest threat for
flooding will be across parts of central and southeast Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
central and southeast Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather
operations this morning, possibly into the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening and Monday
evening. Severe weather is not expected either day.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ050-051-191045-
Love OK-Marshall OK-
508 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR south central Love and southern
Marshall Counties Until 545 AM CDT...

AT 505 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Thackerville, moving northeast at 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 9717 3379 9710 3379 9707 3387 9689
      3392 9690 3406 9669 3390 9661 3392 9667
      3384 9670 3382 9675 3383 9677 3387 9680
      3387 9683 3385 9685 3386 9690 3377 9709
      3374 9709 3372 9711 3372 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 233DEG 51KT 3374 9712

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
606 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ039-044-045-TXZ086-090-191130-
Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Jefferson OK-Clay TX-Wichita TX-
606 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Cotton...
southwestern Stephens...northwestern Jefferson...northwestern Clay
and northeastern Wichita Counties Until 630 AM CDT...

AT 602 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Burkburnett, moving northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Northern Wichita Falls, Burkburnett, Waurika, Temple, Randlett,
Hastings, Addington, Waurika Lake, Sheppard AFB, Corum, Empire City,
Taylor, Charlie and Cashion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 9852 3410 9863 3444 9805 3421 9788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 239DEG 49KT 3407 9850

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ028-040-191145-
Garvin OK-McClain OK-
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Garvin and southeastern
McClain Counties Until 645 AM CDT...

AT 620 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Elmore City,
moving northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 9714 3462 9718 3462 9720 3461 9722
      3454 9749 3467 9756 3494 9713 3493 9708
      3492 9707 3492 9705 3491 9703 3477 9693
      3469 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 237DEG 40KT 3464 9742

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
707 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ037-TXZ085-086-191230-
Tillman OK-Wichita TX-Wilbarger TX-
707 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Tillman...
northwestern Wichita and southeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 730 AM
CDT...

AT 703 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Grayback,
moving northeast at 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Grandfield, Hollister, Loveland, Oklaunion, Harrold, Grayback and
Haynesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9927 3399 9936 3442 9886 3421 9866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1203Z 231DEG 50KT 3400 9924

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
732 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

OKZ037-TXZ085-086-191300-
Tillman OK-Wichita TX-Wilbarger TX-
732 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Tillman...
northwestern Wichita and southeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 800 AM
CDT...

AT 731 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harrold, moving
northeast at 60 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...

Locations impacted include...
Electra, Grandfield, Chattanooga, Loveland, Harrold and Haynesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 9917 3448 9866 3434 9866 3433 9861
      3416 9861 3397 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1231Z 235DEG 53KT 3405 9906

BRB