Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
143 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Fire weather will remain the primary concern again tomorrow. A
cold front will move into northern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon, and
the pressure gradient will relax in northwestern Oklahoma keeping
the wind speeds a bit lower in the northwest. Humidity will also
be a little higher northwest in the vicinity of the front keeping
the fire weather concerns a little lower. Focus tomorrow afternoon
will be in the southwest where it will again be warm, dry and
somewhat breezy. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
are expected in the southwest tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Cannot rule out a stray shower or two on Sunday as a weak s/wv
trough passes across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Most,
if not all, of the rain activity with this feature should be east
of our forecast area. Main cold front will push into northern
Oklahoma Sunday night and progress southward on Monday. While a
few showers or areas of drizzle will be possible near this front,
most of the precipitation initially with the front will be
confined to far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas late Monday
and Monday night. Rain chances will increase Tuesday into
Wednesday, with instability remaining quite low for our area so no
severe weather impacts expected.

GFS has trended closer to the more consistent ECM/GEM models
although slight timing and latitudinal differences of upper low
are still apparent. GFS no longer phases incoming upper low with
the northern stream energy but still has more influence as it is
faster than the other models. Overall, this will impact forecast
to decrease or remove chances of rain across northern Oklahoma. If
the trend in models continue, it is unlikely that there will be
any appreciable precipitation north of I-40 through the week.
Temperatures are still expected to rebound late late in the week
toward next weekend ahead of next potential weather system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
primarily high clouds overnight and some potential for scattered
cumulus around 5000 feet or so tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be
gusty this afternoon. Winds above the surface will increase this
evening and most areas will see low-level non-convective wind
shear overnight. A cold front will move into northern Oklahoma on
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  74  46  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         46  76  43  57 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  51  80  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           39  72  35  50 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     49  70  41  52 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         53  72  56  70 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1056 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will be seen
this afternoon across western Oklahoma and western north Texas.
All outdoor burning and other fire causing activities should be
postponed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be seen across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas on Sunday.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Monday through Tuesday,
mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. No severe
storms are expected.

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