Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

A series of shortwaves moving through gradually strengthening
northwest flow aloft interacting with lower to mid-level moisture
advection will continue to produce isolated weak storms through the
morning. Main concern right now is across northern Grant County
where the heaviest hourly rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.0 inches may
result in some minor flooding. To our west, a complex with a few
embedded severe storms is moving across the Texas Panhandle. The
latest NAM brings this complex into southwest Oklahoma after sunrise
while the HRRR maintains convection in our southwest through the
morning hours.  However, other CAMs solutions breakup the storms as
the move into our southwest.  For now, will keep high POPs in
southwest Oklahoma for much of this morning.  By the afternoon
hours, expect much of any convection to be east of I-35. Expecting
strong to marginally severe storms to redevelop later tonight off
the Central High Plains with northwest flow steering them across the
northern half of Oklahoma. The primary hazards for tonights storms
would be hail and strong to severe wind gusts along with some
localized flooding due to heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Who is ready for some cooler air? A cold front will be moving down
the Plains and into the area on Thursday as an upper level trough
amplifies and moves from the northern Plains into the southern
Plains and Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday into Friday as this storm system slowly moves over the
area, then decrease from west to east as the trough moves east.
The combination of the cold front and the liklihood of widespread
clouds and scattered showers/thunderstorms will bring temperatures
well below average for this time of year. In fact, the forecast
high for Friday in Oklahoma City (around 81) would be around the
5th percentile or less for high temperatures in late July. There
may be another cold front early next week keeping temperatures
below average. There is some signal for some precipitation
associated with this front as well and will watch trends on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Convection will continue across most of our terminals at least
through 17Z. Although conditions will be mostly VFR since storms
are high based, visiblities under the convection could briefly
reduce to MVFR conditions. The convection may linger across
terminals KOKC and KOUN through 20Z. Storms may again develop well
after 00Z across northern Oklahoma and may affect terminals north
of I-40 toward the end of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  73  90  69 /  70  40  40  60
Hobart OK         94  73  95  69 /  70  20  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  93  75  97  71 /  50  10  20  50
Gage OK           92  68  90  64 /  60  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     86  70  88  68 /  80  50  50  50
Durant OK         88  75  95  72 /  80  20  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-
     023>032-038>042-044>046.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
504 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
504 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across the area
again today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and will be
possible again today that may lead to localized flooding. Some
strong thunderstorms are possible and there is a marginal risk of
severe storms this evening and overnight across northwest
Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue through Saturday night with the
highest chances Thursday night through Friday. Strong to severe
storms will be possible Thursday afternoon into the overnight
hours Thursday night, with damaging winds, large hail and locally
heavy rain the main concerns. However severe weather is not
expected to be widespread.

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