Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The outflow boundary/front across south-central Oklahoma, and
back northwest into west-central Oklahoma around mid-afternoon
will likely continue its southwestward progress, although probably
with less enthusiasm in the west. The storms forming behind the
front will continue to reinforce its southward movement in the
area east of I-44. This boundary's location will have major
implications on severe weather and flooding probabilities this
evening. The deeper into the cooler air, the lower the risk of
major severe weather...and flooding will be mainly near and up to
about 50 miles north of the boundary (although the risk of
flooding may expand late this evening, as storms become less
reliant on surface conditions).

We currently expect the majority of the rain and severe weather to
be over the southern half of our forecast area this evening (high
rain chances will continue through the night in the south). With
slow movement of the storms, and heavy rainfall from many of the
storms, there will be a risk of flooding. We are continuing the
existing Flood Watch.

Another cold front is expected to move into Oklahoma tomorrow,
joining an MCV that is likely to be over southern Oklahoma during
the day. This will support disorganized shower and thunderstorm
development over much of Oklahoma/north Texas, although by
afternoon, I-35 will divide the "likely" area (to the east of
I-35) from the "chance" area (to the west). Instability east of
I-35 may support a few strong storms, but organized severe storms
are not currently expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Showers/thunderstorms will be decreasing from the northwest
Saturday evening into early Sunday, as an upper-level circulation
departs to the south/southeast. This will leave Oklahoma and north
Texas under upper-level ridging, which will be reinforced by an
omega pattern early in the week.

Medium-range models are still a bit offset from each other
regarding the ridge axis location around midweek. For now, we have
a mild and dry (no rain) forecast for next week. If the ridge
shifts east more than currently expected, rain chances and
temperatures will both go up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

A thunderstorm complex over Oklahoma and Texas will cause chaotic
weather, including a few severe thunderstorms, across the area
this evening. Highly variable winds, ceilings, and visibilities
are to be expected, particularly south of KCSM-KOKC through at
least 05Z. Farther north, winds will be affected by outflow from
the storm complex.

It is unclear whether there will be BR/fog early Saturday, but
with the cloud cover from the storms, and little or no rainfall
near the edges of the cloud shield, BR/fog seems unlikely.

There will be a few scattered showers, perhaps thunderstorms, on
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon, and mainly east of I-35. Winds
will be all over the compass, but should be relatively light
outside showers and storms.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  77  62  78 /  70  50  30   0
Hobart OK         62  80  60  81 /  70  30  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  79  64  84 /  80  40  20   0
Gage OK           58  81  56  80 /  40  40  20   0
Ponca City OK     63  79  59  77 /  50  60  30   0
Durant OK         65  76  64  80 /  60  80  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ027>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
212 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
212 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe storms through this evening, mainly near
and south of I-40. Large hail up to the size of baseballs and
damaging winds up to 80 mph are the main concerns. The potential
for a tornado is very low.

.Heavy Rain...
There is a potential for heavy rain that could lead to flooding
through tonight, mainly across portions of central and southern
Oklahoma, and western north Texas.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations through
the evening hours..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
The chance for thunderstorms will continue on Saturday, with a
lower risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. The strongest
storms are expected to be near and east of I-35. Low thunderstorm
chances will continue across southeast Oklahoma on Sunday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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