Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
439 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area this evening. High
pressure builds in for Wednesday. A warm front approaches
Wednesday night. A warm front lifts north into the area on
Thursday, then stalls across the region through the first half
of the weekend. High pressure then builds in for Sunday into
Monday, followed by the next frontal system approaching on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for entire region until
10PM.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across parts of
the region through early this evening. Some thunderstorms could
be severe with main threat of damaging winds. Surface CAPE of
around 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 35-40 kt are the
ingredients factoring into this severe potential. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat but large hail cannot be ruled
out either.

Brief heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorm.

There is a high risk of rip current development at the Atlantic
Ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For this evening after 8PM, expecting any remaining showers and
thunderstorms to be located south of Long Island and along the
cold front boundary.

A much cooler and drier airmass will then advect into the region on
a more northwesterly flow. Weak high pressure will begin to
build in from Ontario. Clouds will diminish tonight but boundary
layer winds will stay breezy especially along the coast. This
will keep lows in the low to mid 60s along the coast. Lows will
be in the upper 50s across the interior.

A much drier and cooler airmass remains in the region on
Wednesday. Highs forecast are only in the mid 70s to near 80 (a
few degrees below normal) with dewpoints dropping into the mid
40s to near 50.

For Wednesday night, a weak embedded shortwave with associated
positive vorticity advection will move into the region. At the
surface, the pressure gradient will weaken with an approaching
warm front. Dry conditions expected much of the night with a
chance of rain showers returning late Wednesday night. Lows will
be near to slightly warmer compared to the previous night with
values in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean
beaches of Suffolk County on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure traversing the Great Lakes will lift a warm front into
the region Thursday morning. A few showers are possible with the
arrival of the warm front Thursday morning, but the better chance of
precipitation comes during the afternoon. Once the front lifts to
the north, daytime heating combined with an increasingly moist and
unstable air mass will result in the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC has placed the entire region in a slight risk of
severe weather, with the primary threat being the potential for
strong damaging winds.

While precipitation chances will diminish Thursday night, the front
lingers near the area, providing a focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms through the day on Saturday. Current thinking is that
Thursday night into Friday morning will remain mostly dry, then a
combination of another surface low tracking through the Great Lakes
and the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Laura will bring the potential
for a prolonged period of wet weather beginning later in the day on
Friday through Saturday before the entire system moves offshore on
Sunday. Given the inherent uncertainty in the track of the tropical
system and how much interaction occurs between its remnants and the
approaching midlatitude system, continued to cap PoPs at chance
through the weekend. With that said, given the potential for
tropical moisture to be entrained, the potential exists for periods
of moderate to heavy rain.

Models are in relatively good agreement with precipitation exiting
the region on Sunday, with maybe some lingering showers across far
eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut Sunday morning.
Thereafter, high pressure builds into the region, with
noticeably cooler temperatures and lower dew points. The next
frontal system then begins to approach the region on Tuesday.

Temperatures will gradually decrease through the period, with highs
in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday falling back into the
upper 70s to around 80 for Sunday into the start of next week.
Overnight lows will also become more seasonable towards the latter
half of the long term period as well, ranging from the mid 50s north
and west to the mid 60s at the coast once the system pushes offshore
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure moves through eastern Canada today bringing a cold
front through the terminals this afternoon into early evening.
High pressure then builds in from the northwest behind the cold
front.

VFR. There is a chance of MVFR or lower conditions with
thunderstorms expected to move across the terminals this
afternoon, 19Z through 00Z. Some of the thunderstorms may
produce strong and gusty winds, small hail is also possible.

Winds west near 15 kt, gusting 20 to 25 kt this aftn. With the
passage of a cold front winds shift to NW, around 310 true for a
few hours, with gusts around 25 kt. Gusts gradually end late
tonight/toward Wednesday morning, with winds diminishing to 10
kt or less. Speeds pick up again during the day with direction
continued NW.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is uncertainty with the timing and areal coverage of the
thunderstorms this aftn and eve. Amendments will be possible.
Low confidence forecast regarding thunderstorms.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Rest of Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...VFR. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower possible.
.Friday...Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible in thunderstorms.
.Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with showers and tstms.
.Sunday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected for all waters except NY Harbor and
Western Long Island Sound tonight through 10AM Wednesday. The
SCA for the ocean goes until 12PM Wednesday. SCA could
potentially go longer into the afternoon on Wednesday but the
pressure gradient will not be too tight and confidence was low
on this possibility so kept below SCA conditions in current
forecast. Well below SCA conditions expected Wednesday night
with the weakening pressure gradient.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue on the waters through
the period from Thursday through Tuesday, although seas may
approach 5 ft on the ocean on Sunday as a cold front crosses the
region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding possible with thunderstorms this afternoon into
early this evening.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are possible Friday into Saturday
as the remnants of Laura interact with a midlatitude system. This
will result in at least the potential for some hydrologic impacts
during this period, but uncertainty remains high at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ330-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...
MARINE...FEB/JM
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-262000-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
347 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather that
would meet NWS warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-262000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
347 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather that
would meet NWS warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-262000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
347 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather that
would meet NWS warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
625 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN LAKES          41.01N  74.21W
08/25/2020                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON HOUSE ALONG KNOLLWOOD ROAD.

&&

BC

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