Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1230 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the region today, followed by high
pressure through Thursday night. The high slides east on
Friday, giving way to an area of low pressure which will impact
the area over the weekend. Another storm may impact the area
during the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated the forecast to reduce PoP in the nearterm through 20z
1/8. Snow showers earlier have exited to the east followed by
a brief area of subsidence. Additional snow showers and
possible snow squalls will arise late this afternoon and towards
this evening as the cold front pushes through the Lower Hudson
Valley and points east.

An upper trough axis shifts through the region today, sending a cold
front across the local area this afternoon. The pressure gradient
tightens with the arrival of the front and along with strong cold
air advection aloft will produce gusty winds which will be stronger
during the afternoon hours. Winds at the top of the mixed layer are
forecast to be 45-50 kt, supporting advisory-criteria gusts primarily
for coastal areas, where a wind advisory remains in effect.

Another factor that could have some impact is the threat of snow
squalls, primarily during the afternoon hours. Some elevated
instability and steepening low to mid level lapse rates will be
present. In addition, lift from the cold front and mid level
shortwave combine with moisture arriving from the WNW to give us a
chance of a brief heavy burst of snow accompanying strong wind
gusts. Boundary layer temperatures will be marginal to support snow -
primarily in the upper 30s or around 40, but thermal profiles aloft
and wet-bulb zero heights would tend to support snow, especially in
heavier PCPN. Thinking is that most areas would see PCPN in the form
of snow, but southernmost areas including parts of the city, LI and
NE NJ could see a mixture of rain and snow showers. A quick light
accumulation of snow would be possible, but with that said, PoPs are
only 30-40% across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for dry conditions
tonight with the upper trough axis to our east and limited moisture.
Strong wind gusts will still be possible in the evening, then winds
subside overnight.

Surface high pressure shifts into the region on Thursday with mostly
sunny conditions, much lighter winds and below normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period begins with dry weather on Friday as high
pressure slides offshore throughout the day. As this high slides
east, an upper level trough and surface low will slowly slide
eastward approaching the area.

With the high offshore, a southwest flow then sets up through
Saturday. Expect milder weather with some chances for rain on
Saturday, with the best chances north and west of NYC.

Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday, with rain becoming
likely for much of the area as the upper trough and surface low move
across the area. There is still some uncertainty with the exact
timing, however it looks like the 00z GFS and ECMWF are in better
agreement than previous runs. With the onshore flow, and milder air
in place, will continue to mention fog in the forecast for Friday
night through Saturday night. The rain ends during the day Sunday
with drier conditions Sunday night.

A weak low may impact the area Monday or Tuesday. There remains a
high amount of model spread with this system, so will only keep
chance of slight chance pops in the forecast for now.

There could be some minor coastal flooding and beach erosion over
the middle of the weekend due to a full moon Friday, a strong
southwesterly wind, and seas on the ocean building to over 10
ft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure begins to build from the west.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The only exception
will be the chance for a brief period of MVFR conditions in any
snow showers or snow squalls that are able to reach the
terminals this afternoon. Predictability remains too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

WNW peak this afternoon at 20-25 kt sustained with gusts 30-40
kt this afternoon. Gusts then gradually diminish tonight as
winds shift to the NW.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could exceed 40 kt.

KLGA TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could exceed 40 kt.

KEWR TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could exceed 40 kt.

KTEB TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could exceed 40 kt.

KHPN TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could approach 40 kt.

KISP TAF Comments: Peak wind gusts could be around 40 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR. A slight chance of light rain inland.
.Friday night-Saturday...Sub VFR conditions possible in rain and fog.
.Sunday...Sub VFR conditions possible in continued rain.
,Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty west to northwest winds prevail through the short term
forecast as high pressure builds in behind a departing storm. Gales
on all waters today, diminishing below warning criteria by around
midnight over the western half of the local area waters and by
daybreak over the eastern half. SCA conds then last into a part of
Thursday morning for most of the waters, subsiding below advisory
criteria for Thursday afternoon.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the ocean on Friday as
southwest flow strengthens and seas build to 5 ft. All areas will
need an advisory on Saturday, with a southwest gale possible
Saturday night. The potential exists for seas to build over 15 ft on
the ocean. For now, will continue to keep 12 ft is in the forecast
as the models tend to build seas a little too quickly on southwest
flow. At least advisory level conditions are expected on Sunday as
low pressure passes east of the waters. Seas will gradually subside
Sunday night and Monday, but remain above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ007>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ006-106>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-340-345-350-
     353.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ335-338-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DJ/16
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
408 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>105-NYZ067>070-091100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
408 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow squalls will be possible today, mainly in the late morning
through the afternoon. This may bring brief low visibilities down
to a quarter mile or less. Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be
possible at times as well during the afternoon into early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-091100-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
408 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition, snow squalls will be possible today, mainly in the late
morning through the afternoon. This may bring brief low visibilities
down to a quarter mile or less.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-091100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
408 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gales will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ335-338-355-091100-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
408 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gales will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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