Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
704 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves across the region this evening. High
pressure builds to the southwest Monday into Monday night. A
secondary cold front will cross the region on Tuesday, then high
pressure builds in through the end of the week. A warm front
may lift north of the area Saturday night into Sunday ahead of
the next system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A line of convective showers and a few thunderstorms continues
to work eastward towards the area across eastern Pennsylvania.
Timing remains maybe an hour slower than previously advertised
(see below), but overall the forecast remains on track. Out
ahead of this line, temperatures have risen into the lower 60s
across much of northeast New Jersey and New York City. Adjusted
the hourly temperatures to account for this over the next few
hours.

Deepening low pressure moving across the Great Lakes into
southeast Canada will send a strong cold front into the area
this evening. Along and immediately ahead of the front will be a
squall line. There continues to be excellent agreement among
all model guidance, including the CAMS, with this feature moving
across the region beginning around 6-8pm north and west of NYC,
7-9pm across the Hudson River Corridor and NYC metro, and 9pm-
11pm across Long Island and Southern Connecticut.

The main concern with this squall line is from strong to
potentially damaging wind gusts. The squall line will be in
the form of a narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) with
scattered thunderstorms along it. The tops associated with the
NCFR will be shallow with soundings only indicating saturation
to around 15 thousand feet. Instability is limited, so thunder
should be scattered. However, intense forcing with dynamics from
a negatively tilted upper trough and strong convergence along
the front support the potential for damaging winds in excess of
58 mph. It will not take much downward momentum to bring high
winds from the 55-70 kt low level jet to the surface as the line
moves overhead. SPC has placed the entire area in a slight risk
of severe thunderstorms. An SPS has been issued to highlight
the damaging wind risk with the squall line. There have already
been multiple reports of damaging winds upstream with the cold
front/squall line in Ohio and Western PA.

Strong wind gusts are still possible well ahead of the cold
front. The wind advisory remains in effect across Long Island
and portions of coastal Connecticut through midnight. The
highest winds, if they materialize, would occur 2-4 hours in
advance of the squall line with sustained winds around 30 mph
and gusts up to 50 mph. SE flow may mute some of the mixing of
higher winds down to the surface as this flow tends to stabilize
the lowest thousand feet. Otherwise, southerly winds will gust
25-35 mph most elsewhere ahead of the front.

Once the cold front moves through, winds will shift to the
west. The magnitude of the winds will diminish some, but due to
cold advection behind the front gusts will continue through the
night. Westerly gusts 25-30 mph are forecast near the coast with
20- 25 mph most elsewhere.

Temperatures this evening will be mild in the 50s to around 60
degrees near the coast. Temperatures then fall behind the front,
with lows in the upper 30s inland to the 40s most elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deep cyclonic flow will remain over the northeast on monday  as the
deep surface low tracks northward through eastern Canada.
A gusty westerly flow between the low to the north and high pressure
to the south and west will persist with weak cold advection. The
deep cyclonic flow and some moisture around 5kft may develop some
flat fair weather cumulus during the day. Otherwise, a mostly sunny
day is in store with highs near normal in the lower 50s.

A broad upper trough will remain in place Monday night.
Elongated vorticity energy on the backside of the trough
approaches at night. Several shortwaves within the trough will
help send another cold front towards the region from the
northwest. Clouds should begin to increase overnight, but the
forecast remains dry. Lows will be in the lower 30s inland to
the middle and upper 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive on Tuesday as a
northern stream shortwave crosses the area. A few showers are
also possible, primarily during the afternoon and early evening.
With highs rising into the mid 40s to around 50, any showers
should primarily be in the form of rain.

Stronger cold air advection is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday in the wake of the shortwave as surface high
pressure builds towards the region. This will result in a period
of well below normal temperatures, with overnight lows falling
into the mid 20s to around 30 Tuesday night, and only recovering
to around 40 during the day on Wednesday. This could result in
the first freeze of the season across much of NYC. With the high
building overhead, Wednesday night's lows look to be the
coldest of the period, with temperatures falling to around 20
across outlying areas and around 30 in NYC.

Thereafter, temperatures moderate through the end of the week as
high pressure slides offshore and the flow aloft becomes more
zonal. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday as the next
longwave trough and associated surface low begin to develop
across the western U.S. This feature will lift a warm front
through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain
chances across the local area remain limited through the
weekend, as the better chances for rain appear to hold off until
the beginning of the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front will moves across this evening. A weak low
pressure trough will follow on Monday.

Strong winds ahead of the cold front out of the south this evening
20-25G30-40kt with LLWS. Showers and scattered tstms with the front
should produce widespread MVFR conds/tempo IFR vsby and strong
west winds. Timing of the line is 01Z-02Z most of the NYC and
lower Hudson Valley terminals, either side of 02Z at KJFK, 02Z-
03Z KISP/KBDR, and 03Z-04Z KGON.

Right after fropa flight cat will improve quickly to VFR with
WSW winds 15-20G30-35kt, then W 10-15G20-25kt after midnight,
then with a slight lull overnight, then increasing to 15-20G25kt
after daybreak.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Post-frontal winds late this evening could be a few kt stronger
than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night...VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt early evening NYC
metro/coast.
.Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR. W winds G20kt.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front approaches the waters this evening. Gale
force winds will develop this evening ahead of the front on
all waters. A squall line will accompany the front which could
contain thunderstorms. Gusty winds up to around 50 kt are
possible with the storms.

Winds will shift to the west once the front moves across and the
expectation is that the front will be offshore by around
midnight. Winds may gust to gale force immediately behind the
front, but should slowly diminish to SCA levels into early
Monday morning. Winds will continue to gust 25 to 30 kt on all
waters on Monday. These winds may diminish below 25 kt on the LI
Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor Monday night, but will remain on
the ocean into early Tuesday morning.

Ocean seas build to 8-12 ft this evening and then slowly
subside, but remain above 5 ft through Monday Night. Seas on the
Sound may also approach 5 ft behind the cold front due to
strong westerly flow.

Both winds and seas may briefly fall below SCA criteria on all
waters during the day on Tuesday, but cold air advection Tuesday
night will result in NW winds once again gusting to 25-30 kt,
especially on the ocean waters. Winds will likely remain
elevated through the day on Wednesday before subsiding Wednesday
night as high pressure builds overhead.

Winds and seas will then increase again Thursday night into
Friday on the ocean waters before gradually subsiding Friday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around one half an inch of rain is expected this evening with a
squall line. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated due to the
relatively short duration of the rain associated with the squall
line. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to be
mainly dry with no hydrologic impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to run high due to a new moon. For
the next two high tide cycles localized minor coastal flooding
is expected for the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau.
Therefore, Coastal Flood Statements have been issued for both
of these high tide cycles. Astronomical tides will be elevated
through Tuesday, but a strong offshore wind flow is expected to
prevent any flooding concerns.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ010>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ078>081-177-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/DS
NEAR TERM...FEB/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...FEB/DS
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-161745-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the Wind Advisory, a squall line with scattered
thunderstorms is expected early this evening. A few of the
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-161745-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A squall line with scattered thunderstorms is expected early this
evening. A few of the thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation according to Standard Operating Procedures is
requested and appreciated. Please safely report significant weather
conditions while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-161745-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-161745-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
248 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
160200-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
248 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the
region along a strong cold front this evening. The line will move
through areas north and west of New York City between 6 and 8 pm,
areas along the Hudson River and New York City metro between 7
and 9 pm, and across Long Island and southern Connecticut between
9 and 11 pm. There is potential for damaging wind gusts in excess
of 58 mph with the line of showers and scattered thunderstorms.
These winds could bring down trees and power lines.