Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
812 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front becomes stationary north of the area this
afternoon into Friday. The remnants of Laura are expected to
impact the area Saturday. High pressure will then build for the
second half of the weekend into early next week, with high
pressure remaining nearby through Tuesday. A warm front will
attempt to approach the region for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
**Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms continues into
 evening**

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the area from
northwest to southeast, with the entire complex gradually
sinking to the south. The potential for strong to severe storms
will continue for the next hour or two, but as instability
continues to wane with the loss of daytime heating, expect
precipitation to become more stratiform in nature before
eventually clearing the coast by around 11pm. The primary
threat in any stronger storms from this point forward will be
the potential for damaging wind gusts, along with some small
hail.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s in outlying areas
to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches today, although it could become high late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The region will remain under a fast westerly upper flow, with weak
high pressure sliding across SE Canada and Northern New England, and
a warm front approaching the area late Friday, and then lifting ne
Friday Night into early Saturday Morning as a frontal system
approaches the Appalachians.

With weak high pressure and offshore flow to start the day, warm
airmass aloft, and ample sunshine, expect a seasonably warm day with
highs well into the 80s, near 90 for NE NJ and NYC metro. Potential
for shra/tsra activity developing across W/C PA in warm sector
Friday afternoon to work into areas west of the Hudson River late
Friday/Friday evening. An isolated strong to severe storm cant
be ruled out depending on how quickly instability builds back
into the region, but looks like a small window and area of
threat. Any convection should weaken Friday evening as it
approaches the coast.

Better chance of shra/tsra activity areawide Fri Night with approach
of northern stream shortwave and shearing Laura energy increasing
lift and theta-e advection into the area, with focus along warm
front. Potential for isolated stronger storms in marginally unstable
and modestly shear environment. Subtle hint of a remnant MCV heading
towards the area along warm front in CAMs, which would have to be
watched for enhanced helicity and potential for rotating updrafts.

There is a moderate to high risk of rip current development at
Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough and cold front will swing through on Saturday.
Associated with the trough is the remnants of Laura. There still
remains some uncertainty regarding how open this upper trough
will become along with the expected path of the remnants of
Laura. Some guidance has Laura heading south of the region,
however with an approaching cold front the tropical remnant
moisture from Laura will likely get entrained into and along the
frontal boundary. This would potentially rainfall across the
region to begin the weekend. This will lead to an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon
on Saturday into Saturday evening. SPC for Saturday has the
region in a Marginal to Slight risk for severe thunderstorms,
with WPC having placed the area in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall for Saturday.

The cold front should pivot through later Saturday night
leading to a drier northerly component to the flow. Thus, high
pressure is expected to build for later in the weekend for
Sunday and Sunday night and into the early part of next week.
After the 500 mb ridge axis passes through Tuesday or Tuesday
night, the high should begin to shift offshore and this will
lead to a return flow out of the south or southwest. This should
lead to an increase in humidity for the middle and latter
portion of next week. Questions do exist with the upper trough
indicated by the NAEFS over the Upper Midwest and whether it can
get further east. For now it appears that an upper level ridge
will attempt to hang in along the Mid and Southeastern Atlantic
coast. This would keep the area in a warm and humid regime for
later next week with increasing uncertainty around precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO  SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***

A wave of low pressure will move along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary this evening. The front will then linger across the area
into the day on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the terminals this evening.
Some of these storms will be strong to severe, with the potential
for gusts of 50 kt or higher along with hail. There is also the
potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in these storms, although the
duration of any of these conditions will be an hour or less.

Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period, although there is a chance of MVFR conditions
at KSWF and KGON late tonight with fog and stratus.
Winds will continue to diminish, becoming NW for a few hours before
shifting back to the W at 10 kt or less overnight. Winds then shift
to the SW Friday afternoon at 5-10 kt.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is medium to high confidence in showers and thunderstorms
impacting the terminals through 03Z. Amendments are likely for
changing flight categories as showers and thunderstorms move
through.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR to start, then MVFR or lower
possible with showers and tstms.
.Sunday-Tuesday...VFR. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions this afternoon into evening for all
nearshore waters with occasional 25 kt gusts. Thereafter conds
are expected to remain primarily below SCA criteria into the day
on Saturday, although seas could briefly approach 5 feet for
several hours this evening and again on Friday morning,
primarily east of Moriches Inlet.

Winds and seas will increase on the ocean this weekend due to
the passing remnants of Laura. Conditions are expected to remain
blw sca lvls on Mon, but may creep up close to advy lvls on the
ocean on Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flash flood threat into evening with any training
convection, otherwise mainly a minor urban and poor drainage
flood threat with expected faster movement of storms.

The remnants of Laura are progged to impact the area in the
Sat-Sat ngt time period. 1-2 inches of rain are possible, which
could lead to some minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...FEB/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
813 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-290015-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
813 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-290015-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
813 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
727 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NJZ002-004-006-103>106-108-NYZ069-071>073-075-176-178-280015-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western
Passaic-Western Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Rockland-Kings
(Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-Bronx-Southern
Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
727 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUDSON...PASSAIC...BERGEN...
ESSEX...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...QUEENS...BRONX...KINGS...ROCKLAND AND
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTIES...

At 727 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pequannock
Township, or near Pompton Lakes, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New York, Newark, Jersey City, Yonkers, Paterson, New Rochelle,
Passaic, Bayonne, Wayne, Hoboken, Bloomfield, Hackensack,
Bergenfield, Paramus and Ridgewood.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4055 7391 4061 7405 4067 7404 4065 7412
      4076 7438 4086 7432 4090 7433 4089 7428
      4091 7427 4100 7430 4102 7439 4116 7429
      4104 7389 4100 7389 4103 7385 4097 7367
      4089 7374 4084 7375 4082 7378 4081 7376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 288DEG 39KT 4096 7431

JE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NYZ079-081-280030-
Southeast Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
744 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY...

At 744 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Mattituck,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southold, Sag Harbor, Bridgehampton, Mattituck, Shelter Island, East
Hampton, Shinnecock Hills, Peconic, Hither Hills State Park, Montauk
Point, Noyack, North Haven, Montauk, Watermill and North Sea.

LAT...LON 4103 7190 4088 7232 4090 7256 4105 7254
      4108 7250 4108 7227 4105 7226 4105 7219
      4108 7216 4104 7212 4108 7212 4108 7207
      4106 7207 4101 7209 4105 7198 4108 7196
      4107 7186 4107 7185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 301DEG 41KT 4096 7253

DBR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
754 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARMEL                  41.41N  73.68W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGH THE TOWN

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREWSTER                41.40N  73.62W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAHOPAC                 41.37N  73.74W
08/27/2020                   PUTNAM             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGEFIELD              41.27N  73.50W
08/27/2020                   FAIRFIELD          CT   SOCIAL MEDIA

            VIDEO OF A LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

MW