Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
242 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front becoming stationary north of the area this
afternoon into Friday. The remnants of Laura are expected to
impact the area Saturday. Fair weather is then expected into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
**Potential for significant severe thunderstorms this afternoon
 into evening**

A warm front, has pushed northeast of all but SE CT this
afternoon, with marginal to moderate instability development
across the SW half of CWA, slowly building NE through the
afternoon. This building instability is being aided by strong
surface heating and steep mid level lapse rates advecting in.
Instability combined with strong low-mid level wind fields and
deep layer shear values in the 50-60 kt range continue to
warrant the SPC Enhanced Risk for severe weather. This means
there is potential for a few particularly intense thunderstorms,
bringing potential for destructive wind (75 mph or greater),
large hail (2 inch diameter or larger), as well as an isolated
tornado.

Supercells are already developing over central and western NY
this afternoon, and expected to increase in coverage across
Central NY into southern New England along the stalled boundary
by late afternoon thanks to approaching shortwave energy and
right rear quad of upper jet. A potentially tornadic supercell
entering Ulster County NY, feeding on enhanced helicity along
warm front, could enter interior SW CT by around 4pm if it hold
together.

These storms will continue to sink S/SE across the area during
the late afternoon hours into the evening. Discrete supercells
will initially have potential for damaging to destructive winds
(75+ mph) and large hail (2+"). Isolated tornadoes are possible
as well, particularly in vicinity of enhanced helicity/vorticity
of warm front, differential heating boundaries, and river
valleys.

The storms are likely to organize into several clusters, bowing
segments or QLCS by this evening, with damaging to destructive
winds being the primary threat. Isolated brief tornado threat
would still exists as well for much of the area. Overall, think
the best time range for storms remains roughly 3-7pm for Lower
Hud and S CT, and 5 to 9 pm for NYC/NE NJ and LI.

Once precipitation clears the coast by around 11pm the rest of
the overnight period should be quiet, with perhaps a few
lingering showers through around 2am.

High temperatures today will range from the low to mid 90s across
New York City and northeast New Jersey, to the mid to upper 70s
across portions of New London County where the warm front may not
lift fully through. With dew points rising into the upper 60s
to around 70, this will result in heat index values rising into
the mid and perhaps upper 90s in and around NE NJ and NYC.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s in outlying areas
to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches today, although it could become high late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
With the next system to impact the area for the weekend
remaining over the center of the country, Friday is expected to
remain mostly dry to start. A few showers could then work into
the area by afternoon, especially west of New York City.

Highs will once again be above normal, rising to around 90 in
and around the city and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Slightly
lower temperatures combined with slightly lower dew points
should keep heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
just below advisory criteria.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
Ocean beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shower chances will increase Friday night as an upper level
trough approaches. The remnants of Laura are progged to be
absorbed into the flow by that time, with the moisture and trof
arriving Sat and Sat ngt. This aligns with the official NHC
track placing the remnant low s of Nantucket 7 am Sun. Pops were
limited to likely based on uncertainty this far out, and also
because the 12Z ECMWF, which is much closer to the NHC track, is
less bullish on hvy rainfall.

High pres builds in Sun and Mon behind the sys with fair wx
expected. The high builds offshore on Tue. The GFS hammers the
cwa with tstms on the lljet late Mon ngt into Tue mrng, then
again with aftn/eve tstms as a deep trof overspreads the region.
The ECMWF is significantly more benign, leading to a very low
confidence Tue and beyond. A blended approach was therefore
used, with the NBM as a baseline but pops limited at slight
chance.

For temps, slightly cooler with the rain chances on Sat, then a
cooler airmass builds in Sun-Mon. A slight warming trend Tue
and Wed as heights build. The NBM with local adjustments was
used for temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING DUE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS***

A wave of low pressure will move along a nearly stationary
front from the mid Hudson Valley into southeastern Connecticut
this afternoon into this evening accompanied by thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms will be strong to severe. If storms do
become severe, gusts of 50 kt or higher are possible along with
hail. Duration of these conditions would be an hour or less for
any thunderstorm. Some uncertainty remains in the exact
location and timing of these storms. MVFR is likely, and IFR
possible, in these storms. Otherwise VFR will continue through
the forecast period There is a chance of MVFR at KSWF and KGON
late tonight with fog and stratus.

Gusty southwest winds to 25 kt into early this evening shift to
west and northwest as the frontal boundary sags through the
terminals. Winds shift back to west less than 10 kt late this
evening.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is medium to high confidence in a line of showers and
thunderstorms moving in from the north this afternoon into this
evening. However, timing uncertainty of 1 to 2 hours remains
for any specific terminal to have thunderstorms. Amendments are
likely for changing flight categories and convective timing and
location.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday...VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon with local MVFR.
.Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR to start, then MVFR or
lower possible with showers and tstms.
.Sunday-Tuesday...VFR. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms
Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions this afternoon into evening for all
nearshore waters with occasional 25 kt gusts. Thereafter conds
are expected to remain primarily below SCA criteria into the day
on Saturday, although seas could briefly approach 5 feet for
several hours this evening and again on Friday morning,
primarily east of Moriches Inlet.

Winds and seas will increase on the ocean this weekend due to
the passing remnants of Laura. Conditions are expected to remain
blw sca lvls on Mon, but may creep up close to advy lvls on the
ocean on Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flash flood threat this afternoon into evening with
any training convection, otherwise mainly a minor urban and poor
drainage flood threat with expected faster movement of storms.

The remnants of Laura are progged to impact the area in the
Sat-Sat ngt time period. 1-2 inches of rain are possible, which
could lead to some minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FEB/JMC
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...FEB/JMC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...NV
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-282100-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center continues the area in an enhanced risk
for severe thunderstorms into this evening. Severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging to destructive wind gusts the primary threat.
Large hail and an isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please safely report
significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-078>081-282100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 457 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please safely report
significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-282100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 457 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please safely report
significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-355-282100-
New York Harbor-Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
449 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center continues the area in an enhanced risk
for severe thunderstorms into this evening. Severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging to destructive wind gusts the primary threat.
Large hail and an isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please safely report
significant weather conditions while following local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
440 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

CTZ006-272130-
Northern New Haven-
440 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTY...

At 440 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Waterbury to near New Milford. Movement
was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waterbury, Naugatuck, Southbury, Wolcott, Cheshire, Prospect,
Middlebury and Oxford.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4156 7295 4156 7288 4155 7287 4142 7320
      4144 7325 4143 7326 4145 7328 4145 7330
      4147 7330 4149 7333 4151 7332 4151 7316
      4156 7316 4157 7309 4159 7306 4161 7305
      4161 7302 4163 7302 4164 7298 4164 7294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 246DEG 30KT 4155 7307 4163 7339

DBR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SOUTH END               41.25N  72.90W
08/27/2020  M40 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   WXFLOW

            MEASURED GUST AT LIGHTHOUSE POINT.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 SE BRANFORD           41.24N  72.76W
08/27/2020  M46 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   MESONET

&&

MW

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