Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low over the region tonight and Thursday shifts east
Thursday night. A cold front will pass through on Friday as a
weak high builds in for the weekend. Another cold front
approaches by Monday and stalls south of the area by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms diminish this evening. SBCAPEs of still
around 1000-1500 J/kg early on will allow for strong storms, but
likely under severe levels. The flow aloft is weak, so relatively
slow-moving storms pose the threat of mainly minor urban/small
stream flooding. Flash flooding still cannot be ruled out, but the
threat will diminish quickly towards sunset.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development for NYC and
Western LI ocean beaches, and high for Eastern LI ocean beaches, due
to a 3-4 ft long period SE swell.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low just off the New England coast opens up and shifts
east through the day Thursday. Lift from an upper jet streak,
shortwave energy and a surface trough may trigger a few showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon as instability increases.
Best combination of lift, CAPE and shear will be over the CT
zones, where strong storms could occur. Generally speaking,
showers and thunderstorms are below likely PoPs across the
entire forecast area, but somewhat better overall chances are
over the interior CT zones. High temperatures will be above
normal, but heat indices are expected to remain below 95.

Shower/TSTM chances diminish in the evening with increasing
stability. Warm and muggy overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level low over eastern New England weakens and
finally heads east away from the forecast area, as longwave
ridging builds into the Central Plains and OH Valley.

Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front approaches from the north on
Friday, resulting in an increase chance of showers and thunderstorms
by Friday afternoon. Model soundings are indicating some instability
as lapse rates steepen by afternoon, and precipitable water values
are approaching 2 inches. So expect any storms that do develop to be
capable of producing locally heavy precipitation.

Temperatures will be seasonable on Friday, with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. With dewpoints in the low to mid 60s,
heat index values should only be a degree or two warmer.

The cold front pushes south of the region late in the day Friday
into Friday night and stalls, as high pressure builds in from
the north, bringing in slightly cooler and drier air. Generally
dry conditions are expected for the weekend with chances of
afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day, especially on
Saturday, as a weak shortwave passes overhead. High temperatures
for Saturday and Sunday are in the mid to upper 80s from NYC
inland, and in the low to mid 80s near the coast.

By early next week, a stronger shortwave moves through the Great
Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface, another frontal system
approaches by Monday as a warm front pushes through the area,
followed by a cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures are seasonable
with a slight warm up expected by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level low over the area today will drift out to sea on Thu.

Sct shwrs and tstms can be expected into early this eve.
There could be some patchy fog at the outlying terminals overnight.
Isold shwrs and tstms possible Thu aftn, mainly aft 16-18Z.

Sea breeze component flow today, although significant variability
can be expected invof shwrs and tstms. Light and vrb flow tngt. Sea
breeze flow expected again on Thu, although it could be aft 18-20Z
away from the s coastal arpts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday...Mainly VFR with isold aftn shwrs and tstms.
.Fri...Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible.
.Sat...Mainly VFR. Isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly wrn arpts.
.Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially
wrn areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across
all waters through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient.
Winds may gust to 20kts for a short period Saturday afternoon
across the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Slow moving diurnal convection into this evening will continue to
pose a scattered minor urban and poor drainage flood threat, and a
localized flash flood threat. Rapid rises on flashy creeks and
streams are possible.

Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that occur over
the forecast period, but widespread hydrologic issues are not
anticipated.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides
will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and
the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor
coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles
through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being
overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's
coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference is toward a blend with
the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This keeps waters levels just below
minor tonight. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual
uptick through the week due to the approaching full moon. Thus,
there is the potential for a statement or an advisory level
event as we head into Thursday and Friday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP/DBR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP/DBR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/JP/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
348 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>080-176>179-
020800-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
348 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-350-353-355-020800-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
348 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ081-020800-
Southeastern Suffolk-
348 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
415 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

NYZ068-070-012115-
Putnam-Northern Westchester-
415 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND WESTERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES...

At 415 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Yorktown
Heights, or near Mahopac, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Yorktown Heights around 440 PM EDT.
  Mount Kisco and Bedford around 515 PM EDT.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4135 7394 4142 7372 4121 7352 4109 7384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 334DEG 7KT 4132 7379

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     LIGHTNING        GREENVILLE              41.36N  74.62W
07/01/2020                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FIRE DEPARTMENT SENT TO LAUREL HILL DRIVE FOR BURNING
            SMELL DUE TO HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     LIGHTNING        1 WSW WESTTOWN          41.33N  74.56W
07/01/2020                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FIRE DEPARTMENT SENT TO LAUREL HILL DRIVE FOR BURNING
            SMELL DUE TO HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

JE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
509 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

NYZ079-081-012215-
Southeast Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
509 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY...

At 508 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Westhampton,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Riverhead, Southhampton, Sag Harbor, Manorville, Center Moriches,
Bridgehampton, Westhampton, Calverton, Shinnecock Hills, Mastic,
Mastic Beach, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Quogue, North Sea and
Montauk Highway.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4072 7287 4078 7287 4079 7289 4079 7286
      4085 7290 4093 7288 4099 7242 4098 7241
      4099 7241 4101 7222 4091 7222 4083 7246
      4072 7284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 267DEG 12KT 4085 7260

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
519 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

NYZ078-080-177-179-012215-
Southwest Suffolk-Northwest Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
519 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SUFFOLK AND EASTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES...

At 517 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ronkonkoma,
moving east at 10 mph. Other thunderstorms may develop along the sea
breeze along the north shore of eastern Nassau County.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4088 7356 4093 7324 4092 7322 4093 7318
      4094 7317 4097 7293 4072 7288 4071 7299
      4073 7295 4074 7301 4072 7303 4071 7311
      4069 7313 4069 7317 4070 7320 4068 7326
      4068 7332 4067 7332 4065 7350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 259DEG 8KT 4082 7316

JP