Red Flag Warning 1, NWS New York, NY

027 
WWUS81 KOKX 112250
RFWOKX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
650 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020


NJZ002-004-006-103>108-120000-
/O.EXP.KOKX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200411T2300Z/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-
650 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...

The National Weather Service in Upton will allow the Red Flag 
Warning to expire. Conditions are no longer favorable for rapid 
fire spread.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service please visit...
http://weather.gov/nyc (all lower case)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the area through Saturday, before
moving well offshore on Sunday. A complex low pressure system
will then approach Sunday night and move across the area Monday
into Monday night. High pressure follows through mid week with a
weak frontal system crossing the area Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The forecast is on track with only minor changes made.

Strong low pressure and its associated
upper level low will drift north through tonight. This will
allow the synoptic pressure gradient to begin its relaxation
into the start of the weekend. In the wake of a couple of 700 mb
shortwaves pivoting around the upper level low, there will be
increased subsidence in the mid levels which should prohibit any
showers across the area. The air mass is anomalously dry and
cold for this time of the year so will have to see how cold
temperatures can get tonight, especially for far western /
inland sections. Even though we will lose some of the stronger
gusts, overall the winds stay up tonight so for the most part
temperatures should stay above freezing. A few western zones
will come close to freezing. Lows tonight will be primarily in
the middle and upper 30s, with some pockets of lower 30s well
inland to the north and west. The wind will make if feel a good
7 to 10 degrees colder late tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper level low will pull further north on Saturday, getting
east of Hudson Bay by late in the day. The winds will not be as
strong, but still gusty through a good portion of the day. With the
chilly air mass modifying a bit temperatures will trend a touch
milder, but overall still slightly below average for this time of
the year despite downsloping and some adiabatic compression. A west
to northwest flow with gusts of around 25 mph or so is expected
through the early afternoon. Thus another dry and blustery day
overall is expected. By late in the day and into the early evening
the winds will subside as high pressure builds south of the area
along the lower Mid Atlantic coast. More sunshine overall is
expected to begin the weekend as the cold pool aloft will ease to
some degree. A scattered strato-cu cloud deck is more likely by
the afternoon at around 5kft with daytime heating, but overall
the theme is less in the way of clouds.

Heights will gradually rise into Saturday night with more in the way
of deeper layer ridging. With the winds dying off it certainly will
not feel as cold. With radiational cooling setting up for most of
the night temperatures should be allowed to drop with dew points
still a bit low. The only question is with respect to timing of the
arrival of high, and potentially mid level clouds towards late at
night / early Sunday morning. For now have chosen to keep the
majority of Saturday night mainly clear, with the arrival of higher
level clouds towards or just before daybreak. Widespread 30s looks
prudent for the night time minimums, with the urban areas closer to
40. During the day on Sunday more in the way of clouds is expected
in advance of the next system. Forecast soundings indicate varying
amounts of mid deck cloud coverage, but with any meaningful lift
remaining well upstream it will remain dry. Temperatures will
average near normal across the area, but with an onshore / return
flow getting established during the day coastal / southeastern
sections should be a bit cooler compared to inland locations by the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period begins with deep southwest flow over the region as a
potent shortwave ejects from the central plains into the OH Valley
by Monday.  At the surface, low pressure deepens as it moves through
the Great Lakes on Monday, bringing first a warm front by Monday
morning, then a cold front to the area by Monday afternoon. A
period of heavy rain is possible as the front approaches on
Monday before clearing the coast by Tuesday morning. In
addition, ahead of this system southerly winds will be on the
increase late Sunday night into Monday morning, with gusts of
40-50 mph possible by Monday. Will have to monitor the potential
for wind headlines on Monday, but for now held off given
uncertainty in ability for the winds to mix down. Rainfall
amounts may exceed an inch, especially north and west of the NYC
with any convection associated with the cold front passage.

High pressure builds from the southwest for Tuesday and Wednesday.
An offshore system may approach from the southwest Wednesday night
into Thursday bringing light precipitation mainly to the coastal
areas. High pressure builds in for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep low pressure continues to track into the Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure builds to the west.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds diminish tonight, but gusts should continue around 25 kt
at the NYC metro terminals overnight. Wind gusts increase to 22-28
kt at most terminals on Saturday. Winds quickly diminish after
00z Sunday becoming light and variable at the outlying
terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night...VFR with winds less than 10kt.
.Sunday...VFR.
.Sunday night...VFR, then becoming MVFR or lower toward morning in
developing rain.
.Monday...IFR or lower in rain (possible thunder), improving late. S
winds 20-30G30-40 kt. Strongest winds along the coast. Chance of
LLWS.
.Monday night...VFR with a cold frontal passage. W winds G15-20kt.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon MVFR
showers. W winds G15-25kt.
.Wednesday...MVFR possible in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to diminish across all waters tonight, especially
across the ocean waters, where gusts have generally diminished
to below gale force. Therefore, gale warnings were converted to
SCA across all ocean zones.

SCA cond for all waters on Sat. By Saturday evening the winds
and seas will subside below small craft criteria as high
pressure builds south of the coastal waters. Sub SCA conditions
will continue through Sunday, however seas and winds will begin
to increase out on the ocean late in the day and into Sunday
evening.

Gale conditions become increasingly likely by late Sunday night
into Monday as strong low pressure and a warm front approach
from the west and southwest. Conditions gradually improve
Tuesday as the storm system lifts to the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The winds have continued to be rather gusty over the past 36 hours.
This has lead to further drying. On Saturday there is enough concern
for the potential for fire spread, with W winds still gusting to
around 25 and minimum RH 20 to 30%. After consultation with
surrounding offices and corresponding state officials, have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Northeastern New Jersey due to
an elevated risk of fire spread if ignition occurs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF in excess of an inch is possible Sunday night into Monday which
could at least result in minor poor drainage flooding. Higher
amounts will be possible in thunderstorms on Monday, or across
the interior due to orographic lift in a strong S/SE flow.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

NJZ004-006-103>108-120615-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Fire Weather Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ002-120615-
Western Passaic-
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.
   Fire Weather Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-120615-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-120615-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.