Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
224 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Surface boundary to continue moving eastward across the mid state
this afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered convection now
beginning to form across the TN river area. This trend will continue
and will likely need to include a pre first period for the upcoming
forecast. The convection should terminate by the mid evening hours.

Overnight, tover values looking close to zero with some negative
returns across the Plateau and portions of the northwest. Numerics
in support of fog for most areas, especially the Plateau. Model prog
dewpoint depressions approach 1F for many areas by 12z. Will
therefore include fog for much of the area.

On Tuesday, the front appears to clear our eastern most areas by
midday. however, 925 and 850 mb boundaries are displaced to the
west with low level forcing in place across our eastern half. As
caps again diminish with some expected diurnal warming, isolated
to scattered convection will again be possible, but this time for
the east half.

Areas of fog will again be in play for Tuesday night and also
Wednesday night for that matter. Though the sfc high will be
building in, lower level moisture will still be in play.

For the near term temps, thermal troughing will hang tough through
Wednesday. 850 mb temps of around 14C or so will equate to high
temps only in the lower to mid 80s. Furthermore, dewpoints will be
in the 60s. It's early August, so very very nice imo.

For the ext fcst, we will start out with minimal afternoon capes on
Thursday. Those very low cape to cap ratios will continue on into
Friday as well. Thus, little or no pops. Bu Sunday however, the
convective potential returns thanks to the lower level flow finally
evoking a partial return of Gulf moisture and humidity. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will gradually return but will remain low as
dynamics are looking weak.

For the extended temps, a slow rise in heights can be expected.
Thus, a warming trend is expected. 850 mb temps over the weekend
will return to the 18C-20C level. So, look for seasonal conditions
to return with highs lower 90s and lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Frontal boundary will push eastward across western TN this
afternoon. As cap strengths weaken, isol to scattered convection
will develop across western areas, primarily. The convection will
move slowly northeastward between 15-20 mph. This evening,
dewpoint depressions will drop to rather low levels by 12Z. Thus,
will include some fog toward 12Z. Lowest vsbys will occur near
CSV. The boundary will be situated along or just east of the
Plateau on Tuesday. Afternoon convection will again fire as the
850mb boundary lags behind the sfc front and continues to aid
with some lower level forcing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  83  65  83  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
Clarksville    65  79  62  80  61 /  30  10   0  10   0
Crossville     64  78  63  78  63 /  30  30  10  20  10
Columbia       67  84  64  84  64 /  20  20   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   67  84  65  85  65 /  20  20   0  10   0
Waverly        66  80  62  81  62 /  30  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
450 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
450 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
310 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

TNZ006-032045-
Montgomery TN-
310 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
just west of Clarksville, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville and Woodlawn.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 16.

LAT...LON 3664 8714 3645 8714 3639 8725 3646 8755
      3664 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 278DEG 18KT 3654 8744

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
424 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

TNZ005-006-023-032200-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
424 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MONTGOMERY...STEWART AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 424 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Big Rock to 9 miles west of Tennessee
Ridge. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Erin, Clarksville, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Cumberland City,
Houston County Airport, Indian Mound, Palmyra and Woodlawn.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8739 3624 8756
      3627 8795 3631 8796 3636 8799 3667 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 271DEG 19KT 3660 8783 3630 8794

13