Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The last little bit of shower activity has finally exited Middle TN
early this morning, leaving some high clouds in its place. Now comes
the fog. Dew point depressions are already 2-3 degrees and with the
light to calm winds, fog should start developing over the next
couple of hours. Extent of the fog should be patchy, but a few spots
could be dense with the amount of rain some saw yesterday.

Rain chances over the next couple of days are going to be elevated.
Thanks in part to the continued influence of a weak stationary
boundary just off to our north, showers and thunderstorms should
begin to develop around noon today and tomorrow and taper off in the
evening hours, much like we saw today. Strong gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall continue to be the main threats, but a rogue
severe storm can never be ruled out this time of the year, so if you
have outdoor plans, please remain weather aware.

PoPs should start to trickle off starting Friday, as a little less
coverage is expected. While scattered storms can still be expected
Friday, as we get into the weekend, I maintain that the upper level
ridge models persist in showing will have a greater influence than
currently suggested. While isolated afternoon storms will still be
possible Saturday and Sunday, the amplification of the upper ridge
should not only lessen rain chances, but also raise afternoon
temperatures again. The last couple of days of NBM guidance wasn't
following this thinking, but tonight's guidance is starting to show
signs of this trend.

The start of next week shows the weekend ridge breaking down a bit,
which should open the door for more afternoon PoP coverage and
temperatures falling a couple of degrees, but we seem to be mired in
a very summertime pattern of diurnal thunderstorm activity and
above average temperatures for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered storms with gusty winds and heavy rain could impact TAF
sites through the afternoon and early evening hours. Outside of
storms winds will generally be light and out of the southwest with
scattered low clouds and bkn high clouds throughout the period.
Expect variable winds overnight. Isolated storms are possible on
Thursday before 18z, but impacts to sites unlikely until later in
the afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Middle Tennessee
this afternoon, mainly north of I-40. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are
the main concern, along with locally heavy rainfall and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong thunderstorms are possible across Middle Tennessee on
Thursday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are the main concern, along
with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

TNZ008-027-028-221730-
Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Sumner TN-
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SUMNER AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hermitage, or 7 miles east of Nashville, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet, Lakewood, Hermitage,
Old Hickory, Rural Hill, Belinda City, Green Hill, Percy Priest Lake
and Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 214 and 234.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 54 and 55.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 69 and 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 8634 3609 8650 3610 8652 3609 8652
      3609 8672 3623 8674 3636 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 259DEG 17KT 3618 8666

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

TNZ008-027-028-221845-
Davidson-Wilson-Sumner-
121 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SUMNER AND WEST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES...

At 121 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lakewood, or
near Nashville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet, Lakewood, Hermitage, Old
Hickory and Green Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 220 and 222.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 90 and 92.

LAT...LON 3615 8672 3625 8678 3635 8655 3618 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 245DEG 10KT 3622 8669

Hawblitzel