Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
138 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The earlier round of convection in Kentucky fizzled out as it
moved into the northern part of our area. At this point, that
batch of activity is producing moderate rain with an occasional
lightning strike. Models have been advertising more storms
developing northwest of the CWA and moving into our area through
the rest of the nighttime hours. That solution is on track as
convection has quickly exploded along the Ohio River and
southward. The environment in the western half of the CWA is
unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 1000-1400 J/kg of
DCAPE. In addition to the instability, modest northwesterly flow
has led to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. A few strong storms
can be expected overnight with even a couple being able to reach
severe limits. The main threat will be damaging winds. Some sub-
severe hail is possible as well.

Models show activity continuing into the morning today. HRRR seems
to be holding onto the convection a little too long compared to
the NAM Nest. This will have an impact on later activity as the
shortwave swings through Middle Tennessee. Most models show a
second wave of activity by 21z along the surface front. Bulk shear
values will still be in the 35-45 kt range. The question will be
how much we can recover from the morning round. Right now, it
seems reasonable that we will be able to recover enough for a
couple storms to reach severe limits with damaging winds once
again being the main threat. If a storm can remain discrete, a
tornado could not be completely ruled out, but chances are slim.

Behind the front, things will quickly dry out as another slightly
refreshing air mass filters in. Monday will be the coolest day of
the week with temperatures mainly in the 80s. A couple locations
including Nashville could touch 90. The warm up will commence on
Tuesday as the influences of the western upper high creep
eastward. Right now, Wednesday and Thursday look to be the hottest
days with highs everywhere in the 90s and a couple locations
possibly reaching the upper 90s. Heat index values exceeding 105
look possible Wednesday through the weekend west of the
Cumberland Plateau. PoPs return to the forecast on Wednesday, but
they look to be diurnal in nature. PoPs Wednesday onward to
limited to 30-40% despite higher values that the GFS is producing.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals
this TAF period, with 2 rounds possible. Should storms pass over
terminals, MVFR/IFR vis will be possible with heavier showers. Overnight,
storms look to develop and move in from the northwest through mid
morning, with a break late morning through mid afternoon.
Additional showers and storms may develop late afternoon through
the mid evening. Outflow from earlier storms will bring strong
winds over the next hour or two at KBNA/KMQY, otherwise expecting
light and variable winds overnight. Southwest/west winds will pick
up by mid morning to around 10 knots gusting up to 15 knots
during the day, becoming northwest by the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  69  89  68  93 /  50  30   0   0   0
Clarksville    86  67  87  64  91 /  50  10   0   0   0
Crossville     83  65  82  62  87 /  40  20   0   0  10
Columbia       87  68  88  66  92 /  60  30   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   86  68  87  65  92 /  60  30   0   0  10
Waverly        87  68  88  66  92 /  60  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Barnwell

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E INDIAN MOUND        36.50N  87.60W
07/12/2020                   MONTGOMERY         TN   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE FELL ON A HOUSE EAST OF INDIAN MOUND IN
            MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000445

MR3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     HAIL             INDIAN MOUND            36.50N  87.69W
07/12/2020  E0.75 INCH       STEWART            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A PICTURE OF PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS RECEIVED THROUGH
            TSPOTTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000446

MR3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

TNZ005>007-023>026-120930-
Stewart TN-Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Cheatham TN-
Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...MONTGOMERY...EASTERN
STEWART...CHEATHAM...HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND WESTERN
ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 346 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Big Rock to near Erin. Movement was east
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, Dover, Erin, Clarksville, Coopertown, White Bluff,
Kingston Springs, Pegram, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Pleasant View,
Charlotte, Adams, Vanleer, Cedar Hill, Cumberland City, Slayden,
Cheatham Dam, Palmyra and Woodlawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8693 3607 8704
      3616 8780 3667 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 286DEG 19KT 3663 8773 3628 8765

Barnwell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE ERIN              36.29N  87.64W
07/12/2020                   HOUSTON            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN AND TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 49.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000447

MR3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
440 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

TNZ024>026-057-059-060-121030-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Maury TN-
Cheatham TN-
440 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...NORTHERN MAURY...
WESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM...NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS
AND HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 440 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Burns, or 7 miles south of Dickson, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Dickson, Centerville, Spring Hill, White Bluff, Kingston
Springs, Thompson's Station, Pegram, McEwen, Burns, Fairview,
Charlotte, Bon Aqua, Primm Springs, Lyles, Natchez Trace At Highway
96, Santa Fe, Pinewood, Williamsport and Leipers Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8771 3621 8716 3605 8704 3605 8705
      3599 8704 3601 8700 3573 8679 3564 8733
      3566 8733 3566 8736 3562 8748 3565 8759
      3561 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 307DEG 30KT 3596 8736

Barnwell

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