Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
245 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the mid state this
afternoon, with little changes suggested by the models. Latest CAM
guidance still shows developing thunderstorms moving across the
area this afternoon, and possibly becoming severe along and east
of I-65 before this evening. There's been a little clearing per
satellite imagery, so some additional heating may provide more
surface based instability and increase potential for some strong
to severe storms. Low level shear still looks decent for a spin
up tornado or two, and early radar signatures have seen some weak
rotation so far. Still looking for hail and some damaging winds as
the main threats with any strong to severe storms that may
develop, with an isolated tornado possible not out of the question.
Surface winds will pick up this afternoon as well mentioned in
the earlier discussion, and have 10 to 20 mph winds with gusts to
around 30 mph possible later this afternoon through Sunday
morning.

Another lobe of the upper trough will swing through the area
Sunday, bringing additional chances for showers. Best chances
look to be over the eastern zones during the afternoon when the
trough axis moves over the region. Monday looks to be dry, but
with northwest flow aloft, there will be some embedded shortwave
troughs that try to bring rain chances back to the area. Later on
Monday, some shortwave activity aloft does work its way
southeastward from the Plains, but looks to weaken before it
reaches the mid state. The GFS has some precip just reaching the
TN River Valley, but kept the mid state dry through Monday night.

On Tuesday, another shortwave from the west and a deeper trough
from the northwest will weaken the northwest flow a bit, and may
allow for some showers to finally sneak into the northwest Tuesday
afternoon. As the strong trough continues to strengthen and dig
southeastward later Tuesday into Tuesday night, much better
chances for showers will move in, especially during the overnight
hours. The trough axis and associated cold front will move
through the area Wednesday, ending the chances for showers and
thunderstorms from west to east. However, as the trough lingers
just off to the northeast of the area, some backside showers will
be possible during the night Wednesday into the day Thursday,
mainly in the east. Upper ridging will work its way in behind the
trough, so kept conditions dry Friday through the weekend, with
some showers possible later on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Waves of showers and a few storms will continue to impact TAF
sites throughout the afternoon. A few strong storms with gusty
winds are possible. Occasional drops in visibilities are expected
with the heaviest showers. Winds will increase out of the
southwest and west and remain gusty into the overnight hours. Cigs
will fall as we head into the evening and will likely remain low
into the daytime hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      49  56  41  70  50 /  50  60  10   0  10
Clarksville    47  58  39  69  51 /  60  60   0  10  10
Crossville     44  50  39  65  44 /  60  70  30   0  10
Columbia       48  58  40  70  50 /  50  30  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   47  59  41  70  50 /  40  20   0   0  10
Waverly        47  60  41  70  52 /  40  10   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
502 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
502 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from late morning
for locations along and southwest of I-24 and across these locations
and remainder of mid state region as afternoon hours progress.
Main concern will be large hail, although damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late morning through afternoon
hours today. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 MPH (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

JB Wright

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

TNZ064-065-078-080-252030-
Van Buren TN-De Kalb TN-Warren TN-White TN-
301 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB...
NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...CENTRAL WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 301 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McMinnville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Spencer, Morrison, Doyle, Rock Island State Park and
Fall Creek Falls State Park.

LAT...LON 3558 8585 3568 8594 3600 8558 3576 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 236DEG 34KT 3567 8582

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