Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
242 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Current radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms will move
into the west and southwest portions of the mid-state this
afternoon and evening. Most of the activity is expected to
remain sub-severe with wind gusts to 40mph and heavy rain, but an
isolated severe storm may be possible especially west of the
plateau.

During the overnight hours, short-term models indicate a band of
heavy rain setting up for areas north of I-40. An axis of higher
precipitable water ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 inches, theta-e
advection, southwesterly 850mb winds of 30-35kts, and moisture
transport all peak between 06Z and 14Z. The best time for the
highest rainfall rates look to be between 08Z to 12Z. HRRR
depicts 1 hour rainfall amounts of an inch in some places, and
it's likely rainfall totals of 2 inches or more may be possible
for some localized areas by daybreak. The favored areas are north
of I-40 and west of I-65 between 06Z and 12Z, with areas east of
I-65 being impacted more towards daybreak and into the morning
hours.

GFS shows a repeat for Wednesday night with similar parameters as
above, and even similar time frames. It shows this boundary a
little further south, more along the I-40 corridor. So we'll see
how tonight pans out to get a better handle on the chances for
heavy rain and flash flooding tomorrow night. Having been in a wet
pattern the last several days, soil moisture is high and intense
rainfall will quickly runoff and overwhelm the smaller basins.

This boundary pushes through Friday, followed by cooler and drier
conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s with overnight lows in the low 60s. Might even see some upper
50s Sunday morning. Enjoy the weekend because low shower and
thunderstorm chances return on Monday and increase for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR/VFR CIGs continue this afternoon. A line of TSRA with gusty
winds will approach CKV in the next hour or so, reducing VIS/CIGs.
More TSRA are expected to develop and push toward BNA/MQY and
perhaps CSV this aft/eve. Activity may wane after 01z-02z, with
some CIG improvement at BNA/MQY/CSV. After 06z-09z Wed, more
SHRA/TSRA looks to develop and impact CKV/BNA/MQY. SW winds may
pick up toward the end of the TAF to around 10-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  88  73  87  71 /  40  60  40  60  30
Clarksville    73  84  72  84  68 /  70  60  70  60  30
Crossville     70  85  69  83  67 /  10  40  30  60  30
Columbia       73  88  72  88  70 /  30  40  30  50  20
Lawrenceburg   73  88  71  88  69 /   0  30  30  50  20
Waverly        73  85  72  85  69 /  70  70  50  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......05
AVIATION........Schaper

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
506 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again today, mainly
during the afternoon. A few of these storms may become strong to
severe, with wind gusts of 40 mph or greater and brief, localized
flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S FRANKLIN            35.91N  86.84W
09/01/2020                   WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF WATER COVERING ROADS AT INTERSECTION OF
            SOUTHWINDS DRIVE AND KENNEDY COURT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000518

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE FRANKLIN           35.94N  86.83W
09/01/2020                   WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER COVERING ASPEN ROAD AND JORDAN ROAD INTERSECTION.
            WATER ON RUSH STREET AS WELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000519

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW ARRINGTON         35.86N  86.77W
09/01/2020                   WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 3" TO 6" OF WATER ON RAOADS AT INTERSECTION
            OF ARNO AND PEYTONSVILLE TRINITY ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000520

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW ARRINGTON         35.86N  86.77W
09/01/2020                   WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 3" TO 6" OF WATER ON ROADS AT INTERSECTION OF
            ARNO AND PEYTONSVILLE TRINITY ROADS.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000520

CMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
539 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

TNZ008-028-012315-
Wilson TN-Sumner TN-
539 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMNER AND CENTRAL
WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belinda City, or 7 miles southwest of Lebanon, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Belinda City, Rural Hill, Tuckers Crossroads,
Bledsoe Creek State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area and
Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 226 and 246.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 68 and 76.

LAT...LON 3634 8627 3630 8627 3631 8625 3633 8625
      3628 8613 3627 8612 3626 8612 3624 8611
      3623 8612 3621 8611 3604 8635 3613 8653
      3614 8653 3614 8654 3639 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 215DEG 31KT 3611 8640

21

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