Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this
afternoon, and look to continue into the early evening. Rainfall
rates of up to around 4 inches per hour have been observed per
radar data, and with PWAT values lingering around 2 inches area
wide, heavy rain will be possible with any showers and storms that
develop. Have not seen strong winds just yet, but a few signatures
on radar and obs have shown gusts to around 30 mph. CAMs show this
scattered activity through the afternoon and early evening, with
some convection holding on in the southwest later this evening.

Weak upper pattern will continue on Monday, with mainly diurnally
forced showers and storms again during the day. Models are hinting
that the better chances for precip will be in the northwest half
of the area, with areas in the southeast portion of the mid state
staying dry for a bit longer in the afternoon. Tuesday and
Wednesday still look to be the best chances for more widespread
rain, especially in southern and eastern areas during the
afternoon hours. Upper flow pattern remains weak, but a few subtle
disturbances will provide enough additional support to help out
diurnal forcing on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, a slightly
stronger upper low will be over the Carolinas, and a Midwest
trough will be off to our northwest. This will continue the hot
and wet pattern through the day Friday. Both upper lows will
phase, and the GFS shows a very aggressive shortwave racing
southeastward through the mid MS River Valley Friday afternoon.
This would place a strong MCS through the region, and currently
has this feature going through western TN Friday afternoon. The
Canadian shows a similar feature while the ECMWF doesn't quite
show that just yet. Will definitely keep an eye on how models
resolve this feature as the unstable air from our continuous hot
and moist week will provide plenty of energy for such a complex to
move through the area. Next weekend will be slightly cooler in the
upper 80s if that strong MCS/trough move through Friday evening,
and northwest flow takes over aloft. That strong upper ridge is
not as far east as it was with yesterday's model runs, so the
extremely hot conditions look to stay confined to the southern
Plains and doesnt look to spread eastward just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and thunderstorms are decreasing in coverage and
intensity at this time. This trend will continue into the
overnight hours. Will include convection in the early portion of
the taf period depending on latest radar trends. Otw, conditions
should become precip free overnight. May need to include some
lower vsbys for fog for the overnight given todays rainfall.

The setup for tomorrow does not look quite as active as today. Mid
level shortwave axis will retreat toward the southwest with more
in the way of w-e ridging to our north. A surge of moisture into
our southeastern counties will occur late in the afternoon. This
may amplify convection chances south of CSV toward the end of the
period. Otw, just look for more isol to scattered activity in the
afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
504 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
504 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JB Wright

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
417 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ007-008-052145-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
417 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SUMNER AND NORTHERN
ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Guthrie to near Cross Plains to
near White House. Movement was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, White House, Cross Plains, Portland, Orlinda, Adams,
Mitchellville and Cottontown.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 107 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8657 3664 8653 3655 8642 3637 8653
      3650 8681 3660 8712 3664 8710 3665 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 215DEG 7KT 3663 8699 3657 8676 3645 8656

Hawblitzel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
426 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ056-093-052215-
Wayne TN-Perry TN-
426 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Decaturville to near
Olive Hill. These storms were nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8786 3522 8781 3514 8798 3529 8798
      3530 8800 3530 8802 3533 8802 3535 8801
      3536 8802 3539 8802 3539 8799 3541 8797
      3543 8803 3545 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 348DEG 0KT 3543 8804 3528 8794

Hawblitzel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ006-052200-
Montgomery TN-
446 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Guthrie, or 10 miles northeast of Clarksville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Areas near the Kentucky border in northeast Montgomery County.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 4.

LAT...LON 3664 8711 3663 8712 3663 8713 3662 8713
      3661 8712 3660 8712 3660 8731 3664 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 133DEG 1KT 3665 8720

Hawblitzel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
523 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ059-061-062-075-052300-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Bedford TN-Marshall TN-
523 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...WESTERN
RUTHERFORD...SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Lewisburg. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chapel Hill and Eagleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8682 3569 8681 3570 8681 3569 8680
      3571 8678 3571 8681 3572 8682 3572 8683
      3574 8683 3575 8660 3555 8660 3555 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 133DEG 1KT 3563 8671

Hawblitzel

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
524 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

TNZ095-052315-
Giles TN-
524 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILES COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ardmore, or 11 miles southeast of Pulaski. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pulaski, Ardmore, Elkton and Prospect.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 12.

LAT...LON 3500 8708 3502 8713 3517 8707 3521 8690
      3511 8683 3500 8684 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 129DEG 1KT 3505 8693

Hawblitzel