Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Nashville, TN

906 
WWUS54 KOHX 222332
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TNC043-081-085-222342-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-200523T0000Z/
Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Hickman TN-
632 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DICKSON...NORTHEASTERN
HUMPHREYS AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3620 8766 3620 8759 3618 8757 3621 8754
      3624 8719 3597 8720 3597 8721 3595 8720
      3597 8782 3619 8784
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 264DEG 30KT 3609 8751 

$$

Barnwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
226 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Showers, thunderstorms and a few sub-severe wind gusts rolled
through out southern counties earlier this morning and in their
wake, only light rain across our southern half remains. Clouds have
held pretty firm across the mid-state, which is keeping temperatures
tamped down and the air pretty comfortable -- but this is going to
change this weekend. For the time being, we continue to watch a
complex of showers and thunderstorms west of the MS River at
forecast time. Latest CAMs would suggest these storms will find
less favorable conditions as they cross the MS River, possibly
dying out prior to reaching Middle TN. Yes, while instability is
prevalent, shear values have already started dropping off
significantly, with less than 25 kts of bulk shear expected by the
time they reach us. Will keep an chance PoP in the forecast, but
it's still unclear whether they will reach us.

Even if they do, with the lack of shear, sunset will likely bring an
end of all that.

Your Memorial Day Weekend is going to bring some of the warmest air
to Middle TN that we've seen since last summer as the sub-tropical
ridge begins to nose in the southeast U.S. tomorrow. Mid to upper
80s are expected through Monday. The strength and positioning of the
ridge axis will drive where we end up with the mercury each
afternoon, but that ridge axis will also determine our thunderstorm
coverage each afternoon. We will be in a solid southerly boundary
layer flow each day, so it's going to be humid (heat and moisture in
place, leading to copious instability each day), but without some
notable lifting mechanism, I have to believe that the QPF that the
GFS has been showing for several days now is convective feedback and
not likely to happen. The Euro seems to want to agree with this
idea, showing much less. For these reasons, I'm going to continue to
tamp down PoPs through the weekend, focusing convective development
in the afternoon, much like a typical summertime forecast. That
said, with folks headed back outside and many expected to be on area
waterways, it's imperative that you remain weather aware. Any storms
that do develop will carry plenty of lightning and a gusty wind
threat, as well, so don't get trapped and not have a way to get to
shelter, if need be.

By the middle of next week, models are pretty consistent in showing
the sub-tropical ridge losing its hold over the eastern U.S.,
potentially opening the door for a closed low that develops over
Texas to begin influencing our weather here at home. However, if
that low gets cut off from the greater flow aloft, we could end up
with a very similar pattern as this weekend through all of next
week -- highs in the 80s and a small chance of PoPs each
afternoon.

Have a safe and fun Memorial Day Weekend!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A couple of showers and possibly a storm could affect a terminal
this afternoon and evening, but chances are low enough to only
include the mention of VCSH. The overnight hours should be mainly
dry with the possibility of some fog after midnight. A couple models
show some showers and storms could clip CKV tomorrow morning, so
VCSH was mentioned for the morning hours. Winds will have
southerly component for the forecast and generally be around 5 kts
during the daylight hours and below 5 kts overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  86  68  88  69 /  40  20  20  50  20
Clarksville    64  85  67  86  68 /  50  20  20  50  20
Crossville     61  81  63  83  64 /  40  30  20  40  20
Columbia       66  86  66  87  67 /  40  20  20  40  20
Lawrenceburg   66  85  66  86  68 /  40  20  20  40  20
Waverly        66  87  67  87  67 /  50  20  20  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........Reagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
531 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
531 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong storms will be possible today, mainly south of I-40,
where strong wind gusts and small hail may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
551 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TNZ005-006-023>025-056-057-222345-
Hickman TN-Stewart TN-Dickson TN-Humphreys TN-Montgomery TN-
Houston TN-Perry TN-
551 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...SOUTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN STEWART...HOUSTON...PERRY...HUMPHREYS AND
HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Paris Landing State Park to near New
Johnsonville to near Parsons. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Waverly, Centerville, Camden, Erin, Linden, White Bluff, New
Johnsonville, McEwen, Burns, Tennessee Ridge, Hurricane Mills,
Charlotte, Lobelville, Vanleer, Cumberland City, Slayden, Bon Aqua,
Primm Springs and Bucksnort.

LAT...LON 3566 8802 3572 8804 3577 8798 3594 8793
      3595 8801 3597 8802 3613 8792 3617 8792
      3622 8795 3631 8796 3640 8803 3641 8736
      3619 8721 3570 8726 3562 8745 3565 8759
      3561 8766 3559 8765 3557 8801 3562 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 270DEG 25KT 3641 8812 3607 8790 3568 8805

Barnwell