Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
143 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers/storms are moving through the northeast tonight,
with the rest of the mid state quiet. Upper shortwave still looks
to move southeast towards the area overnight, and bring chances
for some strong to severe storms for the northeast half of the
area tomorrow. Soundings also show some decent PWAT values, and
with the potential for a few rounds of heavy showers and storms
(especially in the northeast zones) some flooding may also be a
concern tomorrow as well. Typical with most summertime setups,
strong CAPE values are paired with weaker shear values, but enough
instability will be around to allow for some stronger storms to
get damaging winds to the surface. CAMs do have some storms moving
into the northeast tomorrow morning, and even have some
additional development in the afternoon/early evening. Models can
have a hard time with northwest flow and MCS cold pool/outflow
evolution, but will need to keep an eye on both rounds of storms
for any strong to severe potential. Other than adjustments to
timing of latest CAM guidance and obs, forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Prevalence quandary of shwrs/tstms at/vcnty CSV
as Upper Cumberland Region potentially could experience several
rounds of shwrs/tstms thru 29/06Z. With shower/tstm complex moving
slowly SEWD across Upper Cumberland Region after 28/06Z, believe
at least north vcnty potential of tstms CSV thru 28/09Z. CSV
shwr/tstm break 28/09Z-28/16Z with once again vcnty tstms
28/16Z-28/22Z per scattered convective nature, but not enough
confidence to mention prevailing at terminal. Mentioned VCSH
28/22Z-29/06Z. CKV/BNA/MQY, best 3hr time frame for tstm vcnty
during diurnal peak heating influences as scattered convection
forecasted across remainder of mid state region, but as like
above, confidence not high enough to mention prevailing at
terminals. However, no additional shwrs/tstms activity mentioned
thru 29/06Z as weak upper level ridging influences build across
these locations. CKV 28/09Z-28/16Z low level atm wind shear
potential mentioned due to proximity to best low level atm jet
dynamics. Sfc winds around 5kts will become around 10kts during
peak atm diurnal mixing, with gusts to around 20kts at times, but
eventually drop to around 5kts toward 28/00Z-28/06Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........JB Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
524 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
524 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong storms are possible tonight, especially across the
northeast after midnight. Gusty wind is the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few strong storms will remain possible on Sunday as well. Again
the main area will be the northeast. Gusty wind remains the biggest
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

TNZ010-011-031-033-280300-
Overton TN-Pickett TN-Clay TN-Jackson TN-
922 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERTON...PICKETT...JACKSON AND
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 922 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Celina to 6 miles west of Gainesboro.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Celina, Gainesboro, Byrdstown, Wolf River Dock,
Whitleyville, Huntersville, Dale Hollow Lake, Rickman, Static,
Standing Stone State Park and Ashlock.

LAT...LON 3662 8500 3625 8531 3626 8545 3630 8547
      3630 8550 3629 8549 3626 8551 3629 8585
      3633 8584 3645 8578 3662 8554 3663 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 266DEG 31KT 3662 8549 3634 8576

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
959 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

TNZ011-033-034-280400-
Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-
959 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OVERTON...PICKETT AND FENTRESS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 959 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Byrdstown to 6 miles southwest of
Livingston. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Jamestown, Byrdstown, Allardt, Grimsley, Wolf River Dock,
Crawford, Rickman, Pall Mall, Pickett State Park and Huntersville.

LAT...LON 3637 8470 3637 8473 3635 8473 3633 8474
      3632 8479 3630 8480 3628 8488 3624 8488
      3621 8491 3618 8491 3625 8544 3628 8547
      3628 8546 3630 8548 3663 8522 3660 8479
      3650 8472 3643 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 278DEG 24KT 3661 8509 3632 8540

Barnwell